Atletico to Win to Nil for Seventh Time in Sixteen

Atletico Madrid have the joint-best defence in La Liga.

Atletico Madrid have the joint-best defence in La Liga.

Atletico Madrid’s defence is the Spanish Primera Division’s joint stingiest after 15 championship rounds and one thinks that the Mattressmakers are worth backing to win to nil against Alaves in Spain’s capital city on Saturday.

Both Atletico Madrid and Barcelona have conceded seven goals in their 15 Spanish Primera Division games, with the former leaking six times in their half a dozen Wanda Metropolitano matches to boast the league’s best home defensive numbers.

Atletico Madrid, which rebounded from its UEFA Champions League exit by posting a 1-0 Spanish Primera Division away victory over Betis last weekend, is significantly stronger than Alaves. According to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, Atletico enjoys a 11-0-1 edge over Alaves based on their respective results versus 12 teams – advantages do not get much starker than that. Atletico is third on the Spanish Primera Division ladder compared to 18th-ranked Alaves so, for once, the raw standings on which most punters base their bets are not telling untruths.

Understandably, bookmakers are offering short odds about an Atletico Madrid home defeat of Alaves so one must head to the exotic markets to source genuine value. Only Espanyol and Las Palmas have scored fewer Spanish Primera Division goals than Alaves so the obvious wager in the circumstances is Atletico to register a clean sheet as well as a home win at odds of -156   with ComeOn. Saturday’s assignment will be the most testing that Alaves has encountered in the Spanish Primera Division this season because the Babazorros have yet to visit a top-six side.

One thinks that bookmakers are not affording enough respect to Celta ahead of its Spanish Primera Division game against Villarreal. The odds on Sunday’s Spanish Primera Division match correspond with the ladder – Celta is 11th, three points below sixth-ranked Villarreal – but one thinks that the raw standings are misleading. According to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, Celta holds a 7-2-5 advantage over Villarreal, which leads one to think that the Sky Blues should be closer to odds of +100 than +138   with Jetbull, particularly as Celta enjoys a 4-0-1 edge over the Yellow Submarine if one only counts the results of games featuring teams ranked in one of the top eight positions.

For one’s third and final Spanish Primera Division pick of the round, one is going to side with Valencia to get the better of Eibar at odds of +155   with ComeOn.

According to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, Valencia boasts a 10-1-2 lead over Eibar, with the Bets recording much better results than the Gunners in their toughest tests versus top-of-the-ladder Barcelona, fourth-ranked Real Madrid and fifth-ranked Sevilla.

Below are one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form figures for all nine matches in the 16th round so you can see the data for yourself. Leganes against Real Madrid was scheduled to take place on Sunday but the Meringues are on FIFA Club World Cup duty so their Spanish Primera Division game has been postponed until they return from overseas.

Sevilla 8-0-4
Athletic 5-3-4
Eibar 2-1-10
Atletico 11-0-1
Girona 5-3-5
Celta 7-2-5
Las Palmas 1-3-8
Barcelona 11-1-0
Malaga 3-5-4

Tips Summary

Atletico to win to nil
Saturday 16th December, 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -156

Celta Vigo to beat Villarreal
Sunday 17th December, 15:15 GMT
Odds:  +138

Valencia to beat Eibar
Saturday 16th December, 17:30 GMT
Odds:  +155