Atletico to Trap Sociedad and Moyes in a Corner

Getafe 0-2 Atletico Madrid

Sociedad boss David Moyes has received the dreaded vote of confidence and it is his struggling side’s Spanish Primera Division match against Atletico Madrid that is the eighth round’s most interesting from a betting perspective.

Two bets on Saturday’s Spanish Primera Division game between Sociedad and Atletico Madrid stand out as being really sound investments – Atletico to win at odds of +110 with SkyBet and under 10 and a half corner kicks, which is likely to be the line at which bookmakers end up framing their markets.

Only goal difference is keeping Sociedad out of the Spanish Primera Division relegation zone after seven rounds and it would seem that Moyes, whose record spanning two campaigns is unspectacular to say the least, is a dead man walking. Remarkably, there are reports that Aston Villa is interested in hiring Moyes to succeed Tim Sherwood but, if the Villans go down that path, they will deserve to lose their English Premier League status. Appointing Sherwood was a mistake; replacing him with Moyes would not right that wrong.

The gulf in managerial quality between Moyes and Atletico Madrid coach Diego Simeone is massive and one was surprised to see odds-against quotes about Atletico getting back to winning ways at the expense of a Sociedad side that has earned its six Spanish Primera Division points from a win over bottom-of-the-ladder Granada and draws with Athletic, Deportivo and Gijon. Sociedad is yet to face any of the Spanish Primera Division’s big guns and already it is near the foot of the ladder. One can understand why Sociedad supporters are calling for Moyes to be shown the exit.

Statistically, there is a good case for backing Sociedad and Atletico Madrid to combine for under 10 and a half corner kicks in their Spanish Primera Division match on Saturday. Six of Sociedad’s seven Spanish Primera Division games have gone under 10 and a half corner kicks, with the exception being its home match versus Espanyol that had 13 corners. Five of Atletico’s seven Spanish Primera Division games have gone under 10 and a half corner kicks, with none of those five matches getting past eight corners. Also, Atletico’s two Spanish Primera Division games that have gone over 10 and a half corner kicks have been its matches at home to Barcelona (1-10 so 11 in total) and away to Sevilla (1-11 so 12 in total). Atletico skewed under 10 and a half corner kicks in last season’s Spanish Primera Division as well, with 24 of its 38 games rewarding unders backers, including 14 of its 19 road matches. Those are odd numbers for a team that was in Spanish Primera Division title contention.

Away from San Sebastian on Saturday and the other Spanish Primera Division game in which one is interested in having a punt is Saturday’s between Betis and Espanyol in Seville.

Betis has won back-to-back matches to leapfrog Espanyol, which has lost two league games in a row. As luck would have it, Betis and Espanyol have had six common Spanish Primera Division opponents and one’s view is that four of those collateral form lines favour the former, with one tie and one favouring the latter. Furthermore, one would argue that the two Spanish Primera Division collateral form lines that do not favour Betis over Espanyol have good reasons – Betis had players sent off at crucial times in both matches, while Espanyol had a one-man advantage for a long, important time of its 3-2 away win over Sociedad.

Marathonbet is offering odds of +120 about Betis extending its Spanish Primera Division winning streak to three games. One thinks that Betis should be trading at around the -111 mark.

Tips Summary

Atletico Madrid to beat Sociedad
18th October 15:00 GMT
Odds:  +110

Atletico Madrid v Sociedad Under 10.5 corners
18th October 15:00 GMT
Odds: TBC

Betis to beat Espanyol
17th October 21:05 GMT
Odds: +110

Atletico Madrid
Diego Simeone
San Sebastian
Spanish Primera Division
Tim Sherwood

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