Atleti to Restrict Real’s Goal Output

The Champions League Final is a Madrid derby for the 2nd time in three years.

The Champions League Final is a Madrid derby for the 2nd time in three years.

Atletico Madrid should be vying with Real Madrid for UEFA Champions League favouritism so, if you have not had a bet on the winner of the final, the Mattressers represent the value because they are trading as the clear underdogs.

Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid have played regularly over the last three seasons, seasons in which the Mattressers have been competitive in both domestic and international competitions. Atletico and Real have clashed 15 times in that period, with the Mattressers winning six, drawing six and losing three if one logs normal-time results, including one win and one draw in this term’s two meetings, both of which occurred in the Spanish Primera Division. And the key to Atletico’s derby success has been its terrific defence. Atletico has kept Real under one and a half goals in 11 of the last 15 derbies between the teams, including each of the last five and 10 of the last 11. So, in case that you missed it the first time around, Atletico has restricted Real to under one and a half goals in 10 of their last 11 matches.

One thinks that the most attractive UEFA Champions League final wager is Atletico Madrid to keep Real Madrid under one and a half goals in normal time at odds of -169  with Marathonbet, a bookmaker that goes out of its way to lay decent prices about statistically sound selections.

That is the case for backing Atletico Madrid to limit Real Madrid to under one and a half goals on Saturday. Now to the case for backing Atletico to, at the very least, take Real to extra time in Milan. According to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form data, Atletico trails Real 6-3-10 based on their respective results throughout the season. But Atletico had the better of its Spanish Primera Division head to heads against Real and, furthermore, the Mattressers did better than the Meringues versus the league’s finest sides. One’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form based on games featuring the league’s top 12 teams favours Atletico over Real 5-3-3. One thinks that Atletico is every bit as good as Real – the aforementioned 6-6-3 head-to-head numbers support that view – and that the UEFA Champions League final should be a match for which there are joint favourites.

Finally, there is an argument for backing Atletico Madrid to have more corner kicks than Real Madrid, an option that is available at odds of +138  with William Hill. Again, this is a market for which Atletico should be, at worst, the joint favourite rather than the outsider. Atletico has had more corner kicks than Real Madrid in each of their two Spanish Primera Division games this season, winning 5-2 at home and 5-1 on the road. Scoring goals from set pieces such as free kicks close in attacking areas and corner kicks is central to Atletico’s tactical approach and, therefore, one is willing to pick the Mattressers over Real. The last UEFA Champions League final between Atletico and Madrid went to extra time but, before the additional 30-minute period, the corner kicks taken stood at eight for the Mattressers and seven for the Meringues so yet another Atleti victory.

UEFA has appointed English referee Mark Clattenburg to the UEFA Champions League final and he is likely to have a very tough time controlling affairs. Each of the last 13 matches between Atletico and Real has had at least five yellow cards in normal time, with this term’s Spanish Primera Division games having seven yellows and 10 yellows respectively.

Tips Summary

Real Madrid Goals – Under 1.5
Saturday 28th May, 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -169

Atletico to have the most corners
Saturday 28th May, 19:45 GMT
Odds:  +138