With Atalanta’s Italian Serie A matches featuring the fewest goals and Roma’s defensive record being the second best in the league, one thinks that under two and a half goals in their Saturday game at the Atleti Azzurri d’Italia is an excellent bet at odds of -130 with 888sport and Unibet.
Normally bookmakers do not take any chances with under two and a half goals in Italian Serie A matches so one was a bit surprised to see the odds available about Atalanta and Roma participating in a relatively low-scoring game. After all, there are many statistics that support the suggested bet.
First, Atalanta’s 11 Italian Serie A matches have had an average of 1.36 goals, easily the lowest in Italy’s top flight. Nine of Atalanta’s 11 Italian Serie A games have gone under two and a half goals and the other two matches have only just climbed over the line thanks to late goals.
Second, Roma’s 11 Italian Serie A game have not been action packed, either, with seven of them going under two and a half goals and just one of them exceeding three goals – its classic 2-3 loss at defending champion Juventus in which the big guns went at each other’s throats throughout the match.
And third, last term’s Italian Serie A game between Atalanta and Roma resulted in a 1-1 draw, with both goals coming in the second half, including Kevin Strootman’s stoppage-time equaliser for the away team. One Italian Serie A point was the least that Roma deserved because it was the better side and led all the most important match statistics. One thinks that Roma will dominate Saturday’s renewal and that, if the game does go over two and a half goals, it will be because the Wolves make the net bulge more often than Atalanta does.
Milan versus Internazionale is one of the marquee games on the Italian Serie A calendar, irrespective of how the San Siro tenants are travelling. Usually one steers clear of derbies – other than for cards-related bets – but the 161st Italian Serie A clash between Milan and Internazionale is one of those matches in which the draw is over the odds.
Neither Milan nor Internazionale is in terrific form – the former has won one of its last four Italian Serie A matches and the latter has won two of its last eight games across all competitions – and the build up to the derby has been massive due to a couple of reasons. First, Italian media have been generating derby stories for two weeks because there has been no Italian Serie A matches on which to report, just international games. And second, the derby marks Roberto Mancini’s first match back in charge of Internazionale, which he led to three Italian Serie A championships in a row in the mid to late 2000s.
One expects that the 161st Italian Serie A derby between Milan and Internazionale will be a nervy affair, much like most of their recent local arguments. The last four Italian Serie A derbies between Milan and Internazionale have ended either 1-0 or 1-1 so Sky Bet’s odds of +250 about the teams sharing the spoiling are considerably more appealing than those shorter odds about ether a home win or an away win.
Finally, one is willing to back Sassuolo at long odds away to Torino, mainly because the outsider has the capability to score goals and the favourite is too short in the market for a side that has bagged only seven goals in its 11 Italian Serie A games and been shot shy in the UEFA Europa League.
Torino and Sassuolo are level on the Italian Serie A ladder – both sides have 12 points and a goal difference of minus five – and there is no sensible reason why the latter is trading at odds of +400 with BetVictor for three points.
Milan v Inter to draw
23rd November 19:45 GMT
Where to Bet: Sky Bet
Sassuolo to beat Torino
23rd November 11:30 GMT
Where to Bet: BetVictor
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