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All the data points to lots of goals at Paderborn
Eric Roberts 2015-04-22 in Football Tips
A couple of bets on over/under two and a half goals stand out as the best ways to wager on the 30th round of German Bundesliga games with most of the attention focused on the UEFA Europa League and relegation scraps because the top four spots, including first position, appear locked in.
One’s best bet on the German Bundesliga card is over two and a half goals in the match between 16th-placed Paderborn and seventh-placed Bremen on Sunday. Not that long ago Bremen’s season was all about retaining its top-flight membership. Now Bremen has their sights set on the UEFA Europa League and it is Paderborn, which started surprisingly well, that is looking likely to slide in Germany’s second tier.
Paderborn’s German Bundesliga home games boast the highest rate of over two and a half goals in the competition, with 10 out of 14 exceeding the popular betting line. And the good statistics do not stop there, either. Bremen’s German Bundesliga away matches are the division’s highest scoring, averaging 3.93 goals – 10 out of 14 have gone over two and a half goals, a road ratio that only Frankfurt is surpassing.
The reverse German Bundesliga fixture between Paderborn and Bremen resulted in a 4-0 home win for Werder so that ticks another box and surely there is every chance of a open game since the home team is desperate for three points and the away side must continue to pick up wins if it is going to elevate itself into the top six before time runs out.
Boylesports is offering the attractive odds of 73/1001.73-1370.73-1.370.73 that Paderborn and Bremen combine for over two and a half goals in their German Bundesliga match, which is higher than one expected to see given the respective home and away data.
Under two and a half goals is what the German Bundesliga numbers say is the likeliest outcome in Saturday’s game between Hamburg and Augsburg so that appeals at odds of 4/51.80-1250.80-1.250.80 with many bookmakers, including 888Sport and Bwin.
Ten of Hamburg’s 14 German Bundesliga home matches have gone under two and a half goals, which is a strike rate that no other team can equal or better. And 10 of Augsburg’s 14 German Bundesliga away games have gone under two and a half goals, which puts it on a par with Freiburg, although the former’s road matches have been a lot lower scoring.
The only knock on the perfect storm of German Bundesliga data is that the reverse fixture between Hamburg and Augsburg went over two and a half goals as the Red Shorts lost 1-3 to the Fuggerstadter – yes, crazy nicknames.
Finally, the most enticing head-to-head wager on the German Bundesliga card is Stuttgart at odds of 1.91 with Bwin to win its home relegation six-pointer against Freiburg on Saturday – that says a lot about the coupon.
For what it is worth, Stuttgart thrashed Freiburg 4-1 on the road when the sides met in the German Bundesliga five months ago. Also, Stuttgart has beaten Bremen and Frankfurt in its last two league home games and Freiburg has failed to score in each of its last four away matches in the tournament.
Paderborn v Bremen Over 2.5 goals
26th April 14:30 GMT
Where to Bet: Boylesports
Hamburg v Augsburg Under 2.5 goals
25th April 14:30 GMT
Where to Bet: 888Sport, Bwin
Stuttgart to beat Freiburg
25th April 14:30 GMT
Where to Bet: Bwin
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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