Brady could win his fifth Super Bowl

Patriots’ Tom Brady Super Bowl Betting Odds

Tom Brady stands on the brink of history as he could become the first quarterback in NFL history to win five Super Bowls when he takes the field at NRG Stadium on Sunday.

Two years ago, Brady joined Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as the only signal-callers to win four Vince Lombardi trophies following the New England Patriots triumph over the Seattle Seahawks.

The 39-year-old has proved his case to be determined the greatest quarterback of all time, but another championship would add another layer to gloss to his illustrious career.

A Super Bowl title this season would perhaps mean more to Brady than any other time during his tenure in the NFL, having missed the start of the season due to his suspension for the deflategate scandal.

He was forced to serve a four-match ban following an 18-month battle against the NFL and court system, which initially sided in his favour to allow him to play in 2015.

Brady has responded with one of the finest terms of his career, throwing 28 touchdowns to just two interceptions, while he was on form in his side’s AFC Championship win over the Pittsburgh Steelers to secure his place in his seventh Super Bowl.

Why Brady Could Succeed

Brady could win his fifth Super Bowl

Brady was in an unfamiliar position at the start of the 2016 season as he was forced to watch Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett suit up for the opening four matches of the campaign.

Brady returned in week five he displayed no signs of rust dismantling the Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers and the Bills in his first four matches.  His level of performances did not dip despite the loss of All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski following the club’s defeat to the Seattle Seahawks.

He found new connections with Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell taking centre stage alongside Julian Edelman, while the return from injury of Dion Lewis added a new dimension in the backfield.

The 39-year-old spread the ball out to his wideouts with relative ease to drive his side into the playoffs and continued that them against the Texans and the Steelers. He will aim to do that to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, capitalising in their youthful secondary. Brady defeated Dan Quinn’s Seahawks defense in Super Bowl XLIX, carving them apart in the fourth quarter to drive the Patriots to victory.

Brady will be playing inferior players as Atlanta’s secondary are not the ‘Legion of Boom’ and with his precise route-runners in Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell and Danny Amendola he should be able to matriculate the ball down the field with ease.

The key to defeating Brady is to pressure him in the pocket as the New York Giants executed expertly in two Super Bowls, while the Denver Broncos perfected that gameplan in the 2015 AFC Championship game. The Falcons lack an explosive pass-rush, which will allow Brady to sit back and pick apart the space to potentially drive his team towards another Super Bowl victory.

Why Brady Could Fail

Brady has lost two Super Bowls

Brady has not gotten off to the best starts in his last two appearances in the Super Bowl.

In Super XLVI, on his first pass of the game the quarterback recorded a safety by being penalised for intentional grounding in the endzone, while in his last outing he was intercepted in the endzone by Seahawks cornerback Jeremy Lane.

Should he get off to a similar slow start against the Falcons, who are a side that enjoy playing with a lead, it will be extremely hard to the Patriots to get back into the contest.

Allowing Atlanta’s defense to play with freedom and energy, while forcing his side to be one dimensional is a recipe for failure for New England, and the quarterback has admitted that Bill Belichick has emphasised starting on the front foot in NRG Stadium.

Turnovers could be costly as the 39-year-old already committed two in his side’s divisional-round win over the Texans.

In that contest he was rattled by the pass-rush and was sloppy with his throws downfield, resulting in two interceptions. He almost threw another against the Steelers in the AFC Championship game when the ball bounced off the hands of Mitchell in the redzone.

Brady will have to ensure that he and his receivers are flawless with their communication and precision in the passing game to keep the Falcons defenders on the back foot. The quarterback can also not become too reliant on Edelman to win the game single-handed, maintaining his discipline otherwise the Atlanta coaching staff will take measure to remove the option away from the Patriots.

Betting Options

Brady has won Super Bowl MVP on three of the four occasions he has won the Vince Lomardi trophy, including the last time he won the title two years ago. He put on a clinic against the Seahawks and will need to perform a similar feat to achieve glory in Houston.

Therefore back the 39-year-old at +125   with Bovada sportsbook to win the Pete Rozelle trophy for the fourth time in his career.

Brady threw for over 300 yards in the last Super Bowl, but given the Patriots’ ability to run the ball this season and Atlanta’s weakness against a potent rushing attack, Brady might not surpass the 300-yard mark this time around. Therefore take the under on 315.5 yards at a price of -105 .

Likewise the 39-year-old broke the Super Bowl record for completions in his side’s victory over the Seahawks that had been set by Peyton Manning the previous year. LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis should ease the pressure on their quarterback to throw, so take the under on 38.5 at -105 .

Brady has been good for at least one interception in his last two appearances at the Super Bowl, so it makes an intriguing option to take a punt on him to continue this trend. He has been deadly accurate for the majority of the season, but the price of the over for 0.5 picks at +125   makes it a solid bet to take.

Tips Summary

Tom Brady To Win Super Bowl MVP
Sunday 5th February 18:40 ET (23:40 GMT)
Odds: +125

Tom Brady To Throw Under 315.5 Passing Yards
Sunday 5th February 18:40 ET (23:40 GMT)
Odds: -105

Tom Brady To Throw Under 38.5 completions
Sunday 5th February 18:40 ET (23:40 GMT)
Odds: -105

Tom Brady To Throw Over 0.5 Interceptions
Sunday 5th February 18:40 ET (23:40 GMT)
Odds: +125

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