Week #5 NFL Betting Preview Sunday October 7th 2012
Eric Roberts 2012-10-06 in SBO Weekly
The Raiders, Cowboys, Lions and Buccaneers have bye weeks.
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals -3 OvUn 45 1:00 EST
The Dolphins head into Paul Brown Stadium after a tough loss at Arizona last week. After a terrific first half of football by the Fins, Miami ultimately fell to the undefeated Cardinals after turning the ball over three times in the final 9 minutes, 24-21. Still, it has not all been bad news for the 1-3 Dolphins. Rookie QB Ryan Tannenhill had the best game of his young career against the Dolphins throwing for 431 yards and a touchdown.
The Bengals have rebounded tremendously from their opening week loss to the Ravens. After getting blown out by Baltimore in Week 1, Cincinnati has rattled off three straight wins. 2nd year quarterback Ryan Tannenhill and wide out A.J Green have been a large part of their success. Dalton has a 103.0 QB rating through four games and has thrown 8 touchdowns and four interceptions. A.J. Green has been the best receiver in football through 4 games, averaging over 100 yards per game and 3 touchdowns.
Books opened at Cincinnati -4, which has headed down to -3 almost everywhere. The total opened at 44 and is trending upwards towards 45 and 45.5.
While some bettors might think the Bengals will easily take care of the Dolphins, we think this one will be close. Though, the Dolphins are 1-3, they’ve had two overtime losses so far this season and could easily be 2-2 at this point. In addition, they have a potent running game, which has been a monumental weakness for the Bengals’ defense who are surrendering 28 points per game. The Bengals should dominate a weak Miami pass defense, but we think the Dolphins can control the clock and at least keep this one close.
Cleveland Browns at New York Giants -9 OvUn 44 1:00 EST
The Browns head to New York looking for their first win of the season. They fell to 0-4 after a loss to the Ravens on last Thursday. The Browns kept it close against their divisional rivals but ultimately fell 23-16. There haven’t been many positives for the 0-4 Browns – even though the team has not lost any of their games by more than 10 points.
The defending Super Bowl Champion Giants also haven’t had an ideal start to the season. They lost last week in Philadelphia, 19-17. The Giants have been hampered by injuries throughout the season, as key players have been out on both sides of the ball. They may again be without wide out Hakeem Nicks this week as they face Cleveland.
After a Giants -13 opener, this one come down to -9 with -10 still be available at some shops. The total opened at 44 and has not moved from that number.
The Giants do not look like the team we’ve been used to seeing the past few seasons. A lot of that might be due to the injuries on defense, but they don’t seem to be playing at the championship level that they were last year. Still, the Browns have been downright terrible, and though they’ve kept their recent games close, they are simply overmatched by the Giants. Their pass defense is ranked 27th in the league, and Eli Manning is playing better than any quarterback in the league right now.
New York Giants -9
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs +6 OvUn 46.5 1:00 EST
The Ravens go into Arrowhead Stadium with a tough divisional win last week against the Browns. Baltimore survived a scare in Cleveland last Thursday, ultimately winning the game 23-16. The veteran Ravens have benefitted from the 11 days of rest – they are coming off a streak where they’ve played 4 games in the past 18 days.
The 1-3 Chiefs will have to cut down on their turnovers if they want any chance of beating the Ravens. Matt Cassel has had a rough start to the season, throwing 7 interceptions and fumbling three times in the first four games. He threw three picks in Sunday’s 37-20 loss at San Diego.
This one opened at Kansas City +7 and has moved to +6 pretty much everywhere. The total opened at 47 and has moved slightly to 46.5.
This one is difficult. The Ravens seem to match up well against the Chiefs, who are in the bottom of the league against the pass. Still, Arrowhead is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL, and the Chiefs have their backs against the wall in the AFC West. The Ravens have a tough time running the no huddle in a loud atmosphere such as Arrowhead, and we think this one will be closer than most think.
Kansas City +6
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins +3 OvUn 51.5 1:00 EST
The 4-0 Falcons look to continue their dominance this weekend as they head to Washington. They had a scare last week – barely getting the win at Carolina last week 30-28. QB Matt Ryan – who leads the NFL in QB rating at 112.1 lead the Falcons down the field to win the game on a last second field goal. The Falcons have been outstanding in all facets of the game. They lead the NFC in scoring with 31 points per game, and have scored a league high 43 points off takeaways.
The Redskins have also had great play at the QB position, but that hasn’t translated into wins. Robert Griffin III has been outstanding in his first year, throwing just one interception to go with four touchdowns. RG3 hasn’t just killed opponents with his arm – the Skins have an NFL best 175 yards a game rushing, and Griffin has been a prominent part of that attack. The Redskins won a tough game against Tampa Bay 24-22 last week, evening their record at 2-2.
The spread opened at Washington +3 and has not moved much off the magic number, though +2.5 is available at some books. The total opened at 50 and has moved to 51.5.
This one may seem like a gimme for Falcons backers, but we’re going after the total. Both these teams have high temp offenses and score at a rapid rate. The Falcons’ Achilles heel on defense is defending against the rush, and that is what the Redskins excel at. The Skins are also near the bottom of the league in total defense – so this one should be a shootout. We see both teams going into the 30s and it heading over the total.
Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers -3 OvUn 43 1:00 EST
The Eagles come into Pittsburgh with a 3-1 record, but by thin margins. They’ve won three games by less than 3 points and have been trailing three times heading into the two minute warning. Nevertheless, the team has three victories leading into Week 4. They barely survived against the Giants last week – winning 19-17 after Giants’ kicker Lawrence Tynes missed a game winning field goal attempt in the final minutes.
The Steelers are 1-2 and have gotten a much needed rest last week, after losing 34-31 to the Raiders in Week 3. Pittsburgh will be happy to be home at Heinz Field where they’ve won 9 out of their last 10 games, and have held opponents to under 10 points a game. The bye week also allowed safety Troy Polamulu, linebacker James Harrison and running back Rashard Mendenhall a chance to get healthy. All three should be able to suit up for the Steelers on Sunday.
The line opened at pk, but has moved heavily towards Pittsburgh to -3 and many online books have it at 3.5, as well. The total opened at 44.5 and is now at 43.
The Eagles are barely 3-1 and even though they are top 5 in offensive yards – they average just 16.5 points per game. Pittsburgh finally has their defensive playmakers healthy and running back Rashard Mendenhall should be a nice addition to a stagnant Pittsburgh running game. The Steelers at home, on an extra three weeks of rest – we’ll lay the points.
We are confident in The Steelers beating Philadelphia Eagles by 3 or more points this weekend. At the time of publishing TopBet.eu was the bookmaker offering the best price on this.
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts +7 OvUn 47.5 1:00 EST
The Packers finally seem to be getting back on track after a rough couple weeks to start the season. After averaging 35 points per game last season, the Packers have averaged just 19 points through their first four games. However, they looked impressive last week in a win against New Orleans; Rodgers threw for 300 plus yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. The Packers won the game 28-27 and are now 2-2 on the season.
The Colts face the Packers with a 1-2 record after a loss at Jacksonville in Week 3 – they had a bye in Week 4. They hope the bye week will help them refocus, and give Andrew Luck an opportunity to study game film and improve. They also hope to get defensive end Dwight Freeney back, which should help a defense that is currently giving up 27 points per game.
The line opened at Colts +7.5, and that may be still available at some books, but at most shops it’s at +7. The total opened at 48 points and is at that number or 47.5.
The Packers looked to be their old selves last week, but we’re not totally sold. They have still given up 20 plus points defensively in all but one of their games this season, and haven’t shown to be consistent yet in the scoring department. The Packers’ pass D is especially suspect, and Luck and the Colts have had an extra week to prepare for this game. Luck throws 30 times a game or more and certainly does not look like a rookie. We’ll take the live dog.
Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 OvUn 40.5 4:05 EST
The Bears look for another dominant defensive performance this week when they head to Jacksonville. They picked off Tony Romo 5 times in a 34-18 rout of the Cowboys on Monday Night Football, and improved their record to 3-1. The Bears defence leads the league in interceptions and is fifth in points allowed. Jay Cutler also had a strong game, throwing for 275 yards and two touchdowns against the Cowboys.
The Jaguars haven’t had too many bright spots this season. They fell 27-10 last week to the Bengals, and only managed 212 yards of total offense. QB Blaine Gabbert was sacked six times and Jones-Drew was held in check, just gaining 38 yards on 13 carries.
The Jaguars opened at +3 and are now at +5.5 or better. The total opened at 41 and is at 40.5 at most books online.
While downtrodden teams as home dogs are normally attractive bets – we don’t love the Jaguars in this spot. Gabbert has been terrible, and they could be without Laurent Robinson. On top of that, the Bears lead the league interceptions and takeaways. Add that to the terrible rush defense of the Jaguars and the strong running game of the Bears and this one is a recipe for disaster.
Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers -9.5 OvUn 4:25 EST
The Bills head to San Francisco with a 2-2 record. In Week 4, they led against New England for much of the game, but ultimately got blown out in the final 10 minutes falling 52-28. Buffalo could use a win this week, as they head into a four week road trip that has stops in Arizona, New England and Buffalo.
The Niners got back to their winning ways last week in a rout of the New York Jets. They held the Jets to a total of just 145 yards and forced several turnovers. The offense also ran for over 245 rushing yards.
The spread opened at SF -8 and has climbed to -9.5 and still continues to move towards -10. The total opened at 44 and is at 45 at most shops.
The Niners have been one of the most dominant teams this season, and had one hiccup against the Vikings or they would still be unbeaten. The Bills run the ball a lot, and the Niners have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The Bills can’t stop anyone, and we think this one gets ugly fast.
San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints -3.5 OvUn 52.5 8:20 EST
The Chargers head into Sunday Night’s game against New Orleans, looking to pounce on a team that isn’t used to starting their season in such a horrible fashion.
The Chargers haven’t been all that impressive this season either. Still, they are atop the AFC West with a 3-1 but have not faced many tough tests. They’ve beaten the 1-3 Raiders and 1-3 Titans, but got beaten badly by the Falcons two weeks ago 27-3. Rivers numbers have been pedestrian throwing for an average of just over 224 yards per game. He has 6 touchdowns and 4 picks on the season.
The Saints -4 opener is not available anywhere now, and most places are offering Saints -3.5. The total hasn’t moved too much either and is at 52.5 and 53.
The Saints have their backs against the wall and should come out with a motivated effort not only for their season, but for Drew Brees who is close to eclipsing 10,000 passing yards. The Chargers also aren’t a great rushing team, which are one of the Saints biggest weaknesses. Look for the Saints to get their first win Sunday Night.
Enjoy the NFL betting this weekend and remember to choose a reliable online sportsbook for ease of depositing and safety of your money. We recommend going to www.topbet.eu for all your punting needs.
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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