Thanksgiving NFL Match Betting Thursday 22 November 2012
Eric Roberts 2012-11-22 in SBO Weekly
NFL Thanksgiving Day November 22nd, 2012
Along with sumptuous food and perhaps drunken relatives, we have always had NFL football to look forward to on Turkey Day. We here at Sports Betting Online will break down the NFL slate and hopefully bettors can not only fatten their stomachs but their wallets, as well! Happy Thanksgiving!
Houston Texans at Detroit Lions +3 OvUn 50.5 12:30 EST
The Texans head to Ford Field on Thanksgiving looking to steal the spotlight from the underachieving Lions.
Houston had one of its toughest games last week, against a surprising opponent, the 1-9 Jacksonville Jaguars. Down 14 points late on, the Texans rallied back to force overtime. After trading field goals to start OT, Schaub hit Andre Johnson on a screen pass and the veteran wide out took it 48 yards for the game winning touchdown. The 43-37 decision was a historic day for the franchise, which gained 640 yards on offense, a team record. Andre Johnson also broke a career record in receiving, catching 14 balls for 273 yards and a TD. And last, but not least, Schaub threw for a whopping 527 yards and five touchdowns, the second most in NFL history.
Detroit, a team whose season may already be lost with a record of 4-6, absolutely needs a win to have any hope of reaching the postseason. Though, they possess one of the NFL’s best offenses they just can’t seem to finish out games. The Lions fell to Green Bay 24-20 last week and have one of the worst red zone conversion rates in the NFL. Even though Detroit has six losses – they are not normally getting blown out. Five out of their six defeats have come by eight points or fewer.
This one opened at Lions +3 or +3.5 depending on where you look, and the majority of bets have been placed on the Texans. The total opened at 48 and has moved to 50.5.
The -3 line seems awfully low for this game. We all saw the Texans get scorched last week by Chad Henne and the Jaguars, and though they were forced into overtime with one of the worst teams in the league, it’s hard not to like them in this matchup. They are possibly the best team in the AFC.
The Lions are in a bit of disarray. Head coach Jim Schwartz benched 2nd wide out Titus Young this week, due to “conduct detrimental to the team” and Lions’ assistant coaches were seen fighting on the sidelines in last week’s loss.
In fact, Houston’s defensive hiccups last week make us more gravitate to the Texans. They were embarrassed defensively and will be motivated to put up a better showing against the Lions. Detroit can’t seem to put on the points when they need them in crunch time, and always seem to get off to a poor start. This is a poor recipe for a win, especially against a defense that is skilled at rushing the passer.
Take the Texans +3 available at the top-rated US betting sitewww.bovada.lv
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys -3 OvUn 48 4:15 EST
A classic NFC rivalry takes center stage on Thanksgiving as the Redskins take on the Cowboys.
At 4-6, the Skins desperately need a win to stay in the playoff race, and they are not afraid to play spoiler to the hated Cowboys. Washington rolled all over the Eagles this Sunday and spoiled Nick Foles’ first NFL start of his career. Robert Griffin III was especially effective, throwing for 200 yards and completing 14 out of 15 passes with four touchdowns. The young rookie QB also rushed for 84 yards. Washington won the game 31-6.
Dallas came out with a victory last week, but needed overtime to win against the lowly Browns. Trailing 13-0 at half, the Cowboys rallied back late and kicker Dan Bailey’s field goal in the final seconds forced the game into OT. The running game in Big D has been stagnant since the injury to Demarco Murray as the team has relied on a combo of Felix Jones and Lance Dunbar. Jones left last week’s game in the 4th quarter, injuring his hip, but is expected to play against Washington.
Opened at Dallas -5 and has moved to -3 exclusively. The total opened at 47 and has moved to 48 at most shops.
This game is extremely meaningful for both teams and is so hard to cap because both teams are highly unpredictable week to week. Also, both teams have some key injuries.
We might see a more timid game plan from both sides to start this one, even though Dallas has not been able to run the ball particularly well, they still feature it heavily into their game play, even when they are getting stuffed. Also, RG3 probably will not be tempting a tough Dallas secondary and will likely give them a heavy dose of fellow rookie Alfred Morris. Though the Cowboys could shred a porous Redskins passing defense, we don’t see that happening in this one. They have played better as of late and held the Eagles to a season low in yardage last week.
We like the under in this matchup – Under 48.
New England Patriots at New York Jets +7 OvUn 48 8:20 EST
The NFL’s most prolific offense faces the Jets, a team they’ve beaten 15 out of the last 19 times in the regular season. They faced off once this season in Foxboro, a game the Pats won 29-26 in overtime. The 7-3 Patriots put on an offensive clinic against the visiting Colts this past Sunday, tying a franchise record for points, winning 59-24. One downside of the victory was a critical injury to one of the New England’s best red zone threats. Rob Gronkowki will miss four to six weeks with a broken arm. Since entering the league in 2010, Gronk leads the NFL in touchdown catches in that span and has never missed a game.
The Jets have had an up and down season, and may be out of the playoff picture at 3-6 and have lost two out of their last three games. However, they looked good last week in a 27-13 win at St. Louis. It was one quarterback Mark Sanchez’s best games of the season; he threw for 178 in a TD in the victory and was extremely accurate going 15-20 on passing attempts. Still, the Jets will need improvement out of their quarterback position if they want to match the Pats’ number one ranked offense. Sanchez is still the league’s 29th rated passer and has 13 turnovers, including 9 interceptions.
This one opened at Jets +7 and has stayed around that number with most books offering +6.5 or +7. The total opened at 51 and has come down a full 3 points to 48.
While the Jets have been mired in QB controversy, faced multiple injuries to their defense and receiving core and have had a subpar defense this year – we still love them in this spot. Like many divisional games, these ones seem to be close no matter how large the disparity in talent may be on paper. Also, a Patriots’ team without Gronkowski won’t be nearly as effective at moving the ball in the red zone. In the previous matchup, Gronk led the team in targets and caught two touchdowns. His presence will be sorely missed, even in a loaded Patriots offense. The Jets have nothing to lose and may open this one up more than usual.
We see this one coming down to the wire and thus we’re going for the Jets +7.
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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