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NFL Week 6 Game Preview and Picks

October 13, 2012

We had a fantastic last week, hopefully you followed us, as we netted an 80% ROI for our biggest return to date on last Sundays picks! We’ve followed those picks with yet another winner on Thursday Night, Steelers/Titans Over 42.5. The Jacksonville Jaguars, Chicago Bears, Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints all have bye weeks in Week 6.

As ever you can bet on any of this weeks games at the top 2 US sportsbooks – www.topbet.eu and www.bovada.lv

St. Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins -3.5 OvUn 37.5 1:00 EST

The Rams head into Miami doing something they haven’t done for six seasons. Jeff Fisher has led the Rams to a 3-2 record, the first time they’ve been above .500 in six long years. The Rams won a hard fought game against division rival Arizona in Week 5. Playing on Thursday Night Football, the Rams handed the Cardinals their first loss of the season 17-3.

The young and inexperienced Dolphins also recorded a win last week. Sporting one of the best run defenses in all of football so far, Miami has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 19 games going back to last season. They kept the Bengals ground game stifled allowing just 80 yards in a 17-13 victory, a critical road win. Ryan Tannehill comes into the game coming off his best two performances of the season; he’s thrown over 650 yards in the past two games.

The Line

The line briefly opened at Miami -2.5 and has quickly moved past the magic number of 3, and is at -3.5 mostly everywhere with some books moving to -4. The total hasn’t moved much from the opening number of 38, to 37.5 at most shops.

The Play

The Rams win last week might confuse bettors into giving them a little too much credit. They are still terribly offensively, have basically no running game and lost their top receiver in Danny Amendola last week.

Miami has lost a number of close games and has played well defensively. The Fins kept A.J. Green at bay last week, and should be able to handle Brandon Gibson and whoever else St. Louis throws out there. They should be able to dictate the pace of the game with an excellent run defense and continued improvements in play from Tannenhill.

We like the Dolphins -3.5.

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 OvUn 47.5 1:00 EST

The Detroit Lions have had a disappointing start to the season through the first five weeks. Coming fresh off a bye, last week, the Lions head to Philadelphia with a 1-3 record, and in last place in the NFC North. After an opening season win against St. Louis the Lions have dropped three straight games. Detroit has not been the same offensively; Matthew Stafford has just three touchdowns passes on the season and has yet to find Calvin Johnson in the end zone. It’s not all bad news though – the Lions are ranked 10th in the NFL against the pass, surrendering just over 210.0 yards per game.

The Eagles come off a loss at Pittsburgh last week, in which Vick lost two fumbles and ended with a Ben Roethlisberger drive down the field and a Shaun Suisham field goal to end the game. The Eagles will need improved play from Michael Vick if they want to contend this season, though he hasn’t thrown a pick in three games, he still has six on the season to go with five lost fumbles.

The Line

The Eagles opened as -4.5 favorites, which has now moved to -3.5 and down to -3 at some books. The total opened at 38 and is at 47.5 just about everywhere.

The Play

The Eagles, per usual, seem to be the better team on paper against most of their opponents, but the results never seem to add up on the field. Vick has been a turnover machine, and the Eagles schedule has not been that difficult so far.

The Lions backs are against the wall and come off their bye week well rested. They may even get safety Louis Delmas back in action, who could make his season debut from off season knee surgery. In this must-win game, we think the Lions come prepared.

Get on the Lions +3.5

Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens -3.5 OvUn 44 1:00 EST

The Cowboys come into Baltimore off of their bye week with a 2-2 record. Still, Dallas is right in the thick of it in the NFC East, trailing Philadelphia and New York by just one game. The Cowboys will need to get their offense going if they want to have a chance at beating the Ravens. The offensive unit for the Cowboys has averaged just 16 points per game this season, one of the worst marks in the league.

The Ravens 4-1 come off a win in Kansas City last week. One of the worst offensive performances for Baltimore this season, the Ravens still won the game 9-6. Uncharacteristically, Baltimore also gave up 214 yards rushing, its the most they’ve given up since a game all the way back in 1997. The Ravens have struggled on the road compared to at home, where they average almost 33 points a game and 457 total yards of offense.

The Line

Opened at Baltimore -4.5 and has moved to -3.5 everywhere. The total has moved a point from the opening number of 45 to 44.

The Play

Dallas is a highly unpredictable team to bet on, but in this spot, we think they might have some value. They, like the Lions, are coming off a bye week, and are facing a Baltimore team that is clearly more talented, but are also capable of having some bad games here and there. Baltimore’s rush defense has been shaky all year, and as they get older their defense continues to lose speed and durability. We’re basically one-third of the way through the season, and we think injuries and fatigue may already be catching up with the Ravens. Also, the Cowboys seem to get up for crucial games, and seem to play to the level of their opponents. We like this one to stay close, or perhaps an outright upset.

We’re backing the Cowboys +3.5

Oakland Raiders at Atlanta Falcons -9 OvUn 48.5 1:00 EST

The Raiders come into Sunday’s game fresh off a bye week that they hope will spur the turnaround to their disastrous season. The Raiders have few positives to dwell on, they have scored more than 14 points just once this season, and are ranked 30th in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up an average of 31.2 points per game.

The Falcons are at the total other end of the spectrum. Still, one of the two unbeatens, the Falcons have had a fantastic start to the season. Offensively, they are off to an unbelievable start through five games. Matt Ryan has completed 68 percent of his passes, and has over 1,500 yards passing in just five games. Last week, they improved to 5-0 after defeating the Redskins in Washington 24-17

The Line

The number opened at Atlanta -7.5 but quickly moved after heavy action. It now sits at -9 at most books, but some have the spread up to Atl -10.5. The total has not moved from the opening number of 48.5.

The Play

There probably hasn’t been a more of a lopsided mismatch this season than this one. It sure looks like a Falcons blow out, but anytime you are laying 9 points in an NFL game, it is a risky proposition. Especially off a bye week, and against a Falcons team that has trailed for large parts of their games the last two weeks. Even with that said, the Raiders aren’t the most appetizing play either.

We like the under in this matchup, the total is exceptionally large for a Raiders’ offense who averages just 16 points per game. Also, the Falcons have had their hiccups on offense recently and could always have a subpar offensive game, though that seems unlikely. Still, 48.5 just seems like too big of a number for this one.

Our recommendation – choose Under 48.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 OvUn 40 1:00 EST

The Chiefs came into the 2012-2013 season hoping to build off last year’s end of the season run. Things have not gone as they planned. The Chiefs are 1-4 after falling to Baltimore last week, 9-6. The Chiefs will also start quarterback Brady Quinn this week who will take the place of the injured Cassel. Quinn has not had a start in three years, but could already be an improvement over Cassel, who has a 66.2 quarterback rating so far, and has thrown 9 interceptions.

Tampa Bay hasn’t had a lot to cheer for either. The 1-3 Buccaneers are coming off a bye week and hope to right the ship after getting a rest. Tampa has been inconsistent offensively and is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, giving up 419 yards per contest.

The Line

Opened at Tampa -3 and is now at -4.5 across the net. The total has not moved from the opening number of 40.

The Play

Kansas City played Baltimore tough last week, but it’s still hard to be impressed with KC. However, Tampa Bay ranks last in the league defending the pass, and we think a focused Brady Quinn might be what the Chiefs need – instead of a turnover prone Matt Cassel. The Ravens are much more potent than the inconsistent Josh Freeman led Buccaneers, so we think KC puts up a respectable showing, even against a well rested Tampa Bay team.

Kansas City +4.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns +1 OvUn 43.5 1:00 EST

The Bengals head to Cleveland looking to take the season sweep of the Browns. They had looked impressive the past few weeks, but lost a tough game to Miami last week, in what was their worst offensive performance of the season. The Bengals gained just 298 total yards, their worst total of any game this season. Still, 3-2 on the season, they look to dispatch the Browns on Sunday to keep pace with the Ravens, who are atop the AFC North.

The Browns are the only team in the NFL without a win, and are off to their worst start since 1999, where they opened the season 0-7. Though there have been some positives, rookie running back Trent Richardson has looked excellent so far, he leads the Browns in rushing yards and is second in receiving. Star cornerback, Joe Haden will also return to the starting lineup from a four week drug policy suspension.

The Line

Opened up at +3 for Cleveland, and is now at +2 or +1. The total opened at 45 and is at 43.5 at most online bookmakers.

The Play

The Browns are certainly not a talented football team, but they’ve played teams close this year and are improving each game. They are a live dog, if we’ve ever seen one, and the Bengals have not found consistent play out of their defense and are still hit or miss offensively, as well. The return of Haden for the Browns is enormous, as he’ll be able to hopefully contain wide out A.J. Green. We like the Browns, plus the points, at the dog pound.

Browns +1

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets -3 OvUn 44 1:00 EST

The Colts head to East Rutherford, NJ to face the Jets after a monumental upset win over the Packers last week. The Colts rallied back several times to ultimately win the game 30-27, on an Andrew Luck led drive that resulted in a Reggie Wayne touchdown pass with just 35 seconds left. The rookie quarterback has been impressive this season, throwing 7 touchdown passes and for over 1,200 yards in the first four games.

The Jets, on the other hand, have been mired in a season long offensive slump. Much is that is due to the play of Mark Sanchez, who is last in the NFL in completion percentage at 48.5. To be fair, Sanchez doesn’t have much of a receiving core to work with, Super Bowl Champion Santonio Holmes is now out of the season, which leaves the Jets with a top receiving core of Stephen Hill and Chas Schilens. The Jets kept it close with the Texans this Monday Night but ultimately lost 23-17.

The Line

Opened at Jets -2 and is now at -3 or 3-5. The total opened at 42 and has gone up two full points to 44.

The Play

The Colts looked impressive in their win against the Packers, but remember even Peyton Manning had a rough first year with the Colts going 13-3. Luck is still raw, and he’ll have some bad days to go along with the great ones.

The Jets have their backs against the wall, and must win this game if they want to have any chance of making the playoffs. A loss on Sunday would set them up at a 2-4 record and a date with New England next week. The Colts are not a strong defensive team, so even with their depleted receiving corps – Sanchez should hopefully be able to put up some halfway decent numbers.

Jets -3

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks +3 OvUn 44.5 4:05 EST

The Patriots seem to have rebounded after a shaky offensive start to the season. The offense led by Brady is now, not surprisingly, tops in the league. They are averaging 33 points per game and 439.4 yards of offense per game. Their passing attack has helped their rushing game tremendously; the Patriots are 3rd in the league in rushing at 165.4 yards per game. The Patriots put up a whopping 52 points in a 52-28 win at Buffalo last week.

The Seahawks have been just as good – except on the other side of the ball. The Seahawks defense continues to power them to victories, and did it again last week. After turning the ball over three times on offense, the defense held the Panthers to just 190 yards in total offense. The defense will have to play their best on Sunday, if they want a chance to beat the Patriots.

The Line

The Seattle +3 opener is still available at most places, but some have moved to +3.5. The total has gone a half point from 44 to 44.5.

The Play

The Seahawks have one of the most intimidating environments in football for opposing teams, but we don’t think that will be enough to stop Brady and company. The Patriots have turned into an offensive machine, and seem to truly be firing on all cylinders. Even though, the Hawks defense has been outstanding, we wouldn’t be shocked to see the Patriots put up 30 points. Russell Wilson barely throws for 160 yards a game, and the Hawks have no downfield threat if they should get behind early. We like the Patriots.

Patriots -3

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals -3.5 OvUn 43.5 4:25 EST

The Bills are reeling from two straight losses as they head across the country to face the Cardinals. Giving up 1,200 yards in two games to the Patriots and Niners, the Bills are in desperate need of a win to keep pace in the AFC East. The Bills gave up 621 yards last Sunday to the Niners, a franchise worst. They also made NFL history, becoming the first team to give up 300 yards passing and 300 yards rushing in the same game.

The Cardinals finally got their first loss of the season last week, falling to the St. Louis Rams on Thursday Night Football. The loss put the Cardinals at 4-1, and though they have had an above average season, they will need to get better to continue their winnings ways. They are second to last in the league in total offense, and have now lost their top two starting running backs. This won’t help a rushing attack that is ranked 31st in the league in rush yards.

The Line

Opened at Arizona -3.5 and is now at -4.5 across the board. The total opened at 44 and has moved to 43.5.

The Play

Neither of these teams has proven a lot yet, but the Bills have proven they are not a very talented football team. Defensively, they are a disaster and even the Cardinals should be able to throw the ball over their secondary. They’ve also allowed a hundred yard receiver in their last three games, a stat that bodes well for Larry Fitzgerald.

The Bills historically have not played well out of the west coast, and the Cardinals are on 11 days rest after their Thursday night loss. Whisenhunt has coached tremendously this year and will no doubt have his team prepared to take on a terrible Buffalo team.

Cardinals -3.5

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins -2.5 OvUn 48 4:25 EST

The Vikings head to Washington with a 4-1 record and the franchise is off to its best start since winning six straight games to start the season in 2009. A big part of their success this year is the emergence of quarterback, Christian Ponder who has 95.5 passer ratings and has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes. The Vikings crushed Tennessee last week 30-7.

The Redskins’ and Robert Griffin III had a scare last week, as the QB suffered a concussion last week in a 24-17 loss to Atlanta. Griffin and fellow rookie Alfred Morris have led a potent Washington rushing offense that is tops in the league. They will have a tough test this week against a Minnesota defense that has just given up two rushing touchdowns all season.

The Line

The line opened at -1.5 and had been pulled off the board a few times because of RG3’s injury. He should play, and the spread and totally are currently at -2.5 and 48.

The Play

Ponder and the Vikings have been remarkably impressive this season, but we like the Redskins in this spot. Though the Vikings have stuffed the running games of most of their opponents, they have not faced a duo like Morris and Griffin. Washington is 2nd in points scored in the NFL and has a potent offense that will surprise an unprepared Vikings squad.

Redskins -2.5

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers -6.5 OvUn 46 4:25 EST

The Giants head to San Francisco to try and beat the 49ers for the first time since they eliminated them in the playoffs in route to a Super Bowl Championship. The Giants have been solid this year, and great offensively, they are second in total yards with 429.2 yards per game. However, on defense, they have been far from stellar. Ranking near the bottom of the league in yards and points allowed, the Giants will need to play better defense to have a shot at beating the Niners.

The 49ers are coming off an impressive win last week, a 45-3 win at Buffalo. San Francisco has thoroughly throttled opponents the past two games, outscoring them 79-3. At 4-1 on the season, they’ve looked like one of the best teams in football. They also boast the best scoring defense in the league, which gives up, on average, just 13.6 points per game. The offseason acquisitions of Randy Moss and Mario Manningham have made an already potent Giants offense into a juggernaut.

The Line

The one opened at -2.5 for SF but quickly shot up to 6 within a few hours. The line is -6.5 right now, but some books have moved it to -7. The total opened at 45 and has moved upwards to 45.5 and 46.

The Play

The Giants have not looked very good at all this season, and have mostly been forced to rely on Eli Manning’s late game heroics to win ball games. That will be a lot harder facing the Niners’ defense which is one of the best in the league. The Giants are clearly not the same team that they were last year, and they are facing an SF team who not only is much better than last year’s team but also out for revenge. We’ll lay the points at home with San Francisco.

49ers -6.5

Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans -3 OvUn 47.5 8:20 EST

Sunday Night Football pits the Packers against the undefeated Texans.

The Packers come into the game with a 2-3 record, after a loss at Indianapolis Sunday. The Packers defense again blew a large halftime lead of 21-3. The offense was held to just two field goals in the 2nd half, and the Colts ultimately won the game 30-27 on a Reggie Wayne touchdown pass. The Packers have struggled defensively, in their past two games they’ve given a total of 58 points and 938 yards of offense to opponents.

The Texans are off to their best start in franchise history. They handled the Jets last week 23-17, but suffered a rough loss as Pro Bowl linebacker Brian Cushing had a season ending knee injury. It may hurt a defense that ranks third in total yards and fourth in scoring, giving up just 14.6 points per game to opponents. The Packers may also have to worry about a balanced attack on offense that features Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels and Arian Foster.

The Line

The line had held firm at Houston -3, but some places are now moving it up to -3.5. The total has gone up from 47 to 47.5.
The Play

This is a tough one to call, because the Texans have been so strong defensively, but at the same time this game is an almost must win for the Packers if they want to keep pace in the NFC North. It should be a close game, but what attracts us to this matchup is the total.

48 points wouldn’t seem like a lot for the Packers of last year, but this year’s team is averaging just under 22 points per game – a far cry from the 35 the team averaged last year. The Texans have a power running offense that should kill clock, and aren’t a team that likes to drive up the score. We’re going with the under.

Under 47.5

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About the author

Eric Roberts
Eric Roberts

Sports Journalist

Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.