Home » SBO Weekly » NFL Week 4 Betting Preview 30th September

NFL Week 4 Betting Preview 30th September

September 29, 2012

This is the first bye week; the teams getting the rest are the Steelers and Colts. The NFL has also agreed to terms with the NFL Referees, and all games this week will be officiated by the regular NFL Officials, not the replacement refs. As always if you’re looking for somewhere to bet on NFL, then look no further than www.topbet.eu the number one US sportsbook.

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams +2.5 OvUn 39 1:00 EST

The Seahawks head to St. Louis after a controversial Monday Night win against the Packers, in which QB Russell Wilson threw up a last second hail mary for a controversial game-ending touchdown, giving Seattle a 14-12 win. Seattle is 2-1 on the season, after a win against Dallas in Week 2, and loss to Arizona in Week 1.

The Rams are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season, a 23-6 loss to Chicago. QB Sam Bradford was sacked six times in the loss and has not had much protection so far this season. The Rams were hoping to build off their win in Washington last week, but could get nothing going against the Bears’ defense, which just allowed 160 yards of offense.

The Line

Opened at +1 for St. Louis, and has moved to 2.5 at most shops and is trending towards St. Louis +3. The total opened at 40.5 and is now at 39.

The Play

Some bettors might like the Rams as the attractive home dog, but we just think they are too weak of a team to bet on. Not only that, the Seahawks have beat them four straight times, and seem to be drastic improvement of last year’s team. Injuries have ravaged the Rams on the offensive line, and running back Steven Jackson is s fitness concern for Sunday. The Rams were also near last in the league in rush defense last year and will face the leading rusher in the NFC, Marshawn Lynch. The tough defense and strong running game, make the Seahawks all too powerful.

Seahawks -2.5

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons -7 OvUn 48 1:00 EST

The Panthers and sophomore QB Cam Newton haven’t had the start they expected to their season. Carolina is 1-2 after a drubbing at the hands of the Giants where they fell 36-7. Though, marred by some injuries in the backfield, Newton nor the tandem of Stewart and Williams have been able to get the running game going for Carolina so far.

The Falcons on the hand come into Week 4 unbeaten, with QB Matt Ryan off to a fast start leading the NFL in passer rating. Ryan has been extremely efficient so far, in a 27-3 win at San Diego last week, he threw three touchdown passes and one interception. Atlanta has just one offensive turnover to start the season.

The Line

Opened at Atlanta -6 and has hit -7 everywhere, and is rising to -7.5 and -8. The total opened at 50 and is now at 48.

The Play

Even though, Matt Ryan and the passing game has been the star for the Falcons, Atlanta is still committed to their run game. Their gameplan is to get up early, and chew up clock with punishing 9-12 play drives. Carolina is also a run first offense, Jonathan Stewart will be back and will hope to try and take the pressure off Newton. The running game of both teams should slow down the clock, and keep this one from becoming a shootout.

Under 48

San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets +4 OvUn48.5 1:00 EST

The Niners looked like the NFL’s most impressive team until last week, where they fell at Minnesota 24-13. They managed to turnover the ball three times, while only scoring one touchdown. They hope to right the ship this week against the Jets, a team who is without their All Pro cornerback Darrell Revis, for the rest of the season.

The Jets face the Niners sporting a 2-1 record, and come off an overtime win last week in Miami. With Revis out, the Jets will be thin at corner and will start Antonio Crombartie and Kyle Wilson. They hope to contain the receiving core of that features Michael Crabtree, Mario Manningham and Vernon Davis.

The Line

Major action on a line that opened at Jets -1, and is now at +4 with heavy action on SF. The total has gone up from the opening number of 40 to 41.5

The Play

While we normally like a live dog, the Jets have a hard time moving the ball this season, and have not been playing the elite level of defense that fans are normally accustomed to. Now they’ve lost their best player, and do not have an offense capable of scoring points in bunches.

San Francisco will be a focused group after last week’s shocker of a loss, and the Jets will be the focus of their anger.

49ers -4

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills +4 OvUn 50.5 1:00 EST

The Patriots head into Week 4 hoping to avoid a three game losing streak, they have fallen in consecutive weeks to Arizona and last week to the Ravens. The Pats lost a shootout on Sunday Night to the Ravens, who hit a game winning field goal with seconds left to give them the 31-30 victory.

The Bills are 2-1 after a Week 1 loss to the Jets. They beat Kansas City two weeks ago, and handled the Cleveland Browns last week 24-13 – in a game that Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 3 touchdown passes. The Bills will also welcome back Fred Jackson, who sat most of the season with an injury. C.J Spiller, the NFL’s current leading rusher is questionable for Sunday’s game.

The Line

Opened at Buffalo +3.5 and has move to +4 pretty much at all shops. The total has held firm on an opening number of 50.5.

The Play

It was totally uncharacteristic of New England to drop two games in a row, and the team could be off to its worst loss in over a decade – if they manage to lose to the Bills Sunday. Even though, the Patriots haven’t been the same this season – the Bills are not a talented football team. With such a low number, it’s hard to lay off the Patriots, the Bills defense won’t be able to stop the Pats’ offensive prowess, and I doubt they can match their firepower. Spiller has been fantastic, but their passing game leaves a lot to be desired. We’ll lay the points with the Patriots.

Patriots -4

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans -12 OvUn 45 1:00 EST

Rivals face off as Tennessee heads to Houston. The Tennessee Titans finally got their first win of the season last week, an overtime win at Detroit. Jake Locker won his first career start as well, throwing for 378 yards and two touchdowns. The Titans are 1-2 on the season, as they visit the dominant Texans.

The Texans held on to defeat Denver on Sunday, and roll into Week 4 with a 3-0 record. Much of their success is because quarterback Matt Schaub is playing some of the best football of his career. He threw for four TDs last week and has just one interception on the season. Arian Foster anchors a tough running game and leads the NFL in carries with 79.

The Line

The line opened at Texans -10.5 and has moved to -12 and is at -13 at some shops. The total opened at 43.5 and is at 45 across the board.

The Play

The Texans look like the AFC’s top Superbowl contender right now and have dominated a few opponents to start the season. However, last week, they still gave up 25 points to the Broncos and have faced a fairly easy schedule so far. Tennessee is not as they’ve looked, Locker is finally getting a handle of the offense and of course, 12 points are a lot for a Week 4 matchup. We like this one stay close, and will take the Titans and the points.

Titans +12

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions -4.5 OvUn 47 1:00 EST

The Vikings hope to continue their winning ways against the Lions this weekend. In large part, their 2-1 record is in thanks to Christian Ponder, the 2nd year QB is 2nd in the NFL in completion percentage, completing just over 70% of his passes and is second in passer rating at 104.9. He had another outstanding game Sunday, as he went 21 of 35 with two TDs in a 24-13 win at San Francisco. Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin are also now healthy, giving the Vikings’ offense a formidable offensive punch.

The Lions, on the other hand, are trying to avoid going into Week 5 with a 1-3 record. They will need to shore up a defense which gave up 437 yards to the Titans last week, and is giving up over 30 points a game through three weeks. Stafford has been inconsistent as well, and will need to be at his best as he is facing a Vikings’ defense that is giving up just a shade under 20 points per game so far this season.

The Line

The game opened with a Lions -5.5 and has gone down to -4.5 across the board. The total opened at 47 and has not moved much from the opening number.

The Play

The Lions are fresh off a playoff appearance last season, but they surely do not look like it. Their offense isn’t quite as explosive, and their defense is horrible. The Vikings have proven they have a formidable defense and Christian Ponder in year number two, makes them look like contenders. Minnesota has plenty of weapons on offense, and a much better defense than the Lions.

Vikings +4.5

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs +1 OvUn 44 1:00 EST

This AFC West Showdown will help shape the divisional race, and tell bettors a lot about the state of the Chiefs and Chargers. The Chargers after starting the season 2-0, got destroyed last Week in a 27-3 loss to Atlanta, where nothing went right for them. The Chargers coughed up four turnovers and scored the fewest points ever under Coach Norv Turner.

The Chiefs are riding high after last week’s win in New Orleans. Trailing 24-6 at halftime, the Chiefs rallied back on the shoulders of running back Jamal Charles, who had whopping 288 total yards against the Saints’ defense. The Chiefs also had some back luck as well, their staring center, Rodney Hudson broke his leg and was put on the IR. This will force guard Ryan Lilja to move to center and for the Chiefs to start rookie Jeff Allen taking the spot at guard.

The Line

A Chiefs +3 opener has gone down to +1 and is now at pk at many books. The total opened at 46 and has trended downward to 44.

The Play

The Chiefs had no quit in them last week against the Saints and looked it paid off. Offensively, they have a strong running game and a superb play action passing game. But, injuries to the offensive line and perhaps a strong opponent like the Chargers may be too much for them to handle. The Chargers were blown out, by perhaps by the best team in Football right now, in the Atlanta Falcons. The Chiefs were not a talented team last year, and not much has changed personnel wise.

Chargers -1

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 OvUn 43.5 4:05 EST

The Bengals head into Jacksonville with two straight wins, after an opening season loss at Baltimore. The Bengals are fourth in the NFL in passing yards, and have second year QB Andy Dalton to thank for that – Dalton has over 860 yards this season and has thrown six touchdowns to go with three interceptions. A.J Green has also been impressive; he had a career high 183 yards in a 38-31 win against the Redskins last week.

The Jaguars finally got their first win of the season last week against the Colts. They were led by Maurice Jones-Drew, who is 2nd in the NFL in rushing and had 177 yards against the Colts. Blaine Gabbert could use the offensive help, the 2nd year QB is nearly last in completion percentage in the NFL. Still, the Jaguars hope to build on their win last week with a nice showing at home versus the Bengals.

The Line

Jacksonville opened as a +1 favorite and have gotten to +2.5 and +3 at some books. The total opened at 43.5 is at the number mostly everywhere.

The Play

The Bengals have only faced one decent defense this year, the Ravens, and they scored 14 points. Sure, they can score big on the Browns and Redskins, but the Jaguars have a strong defensive front and talented secondary. Also, the Bengals have porous rush defense, one that Maurice Jones-Drew should easily be able to handle. The Jaguars should be small favorites in this game, regardless of how poor they looked in the first two weeks of the season.

Jaguars +2.5

Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals -5.5 OvUn 39 4:05 EST

The Fins come into Week 4, after an overtime loss last week to the Jets, one in which Miami kicker Dan Carpenter missed a 48 year field goal to win the game in OT. The Jets hit a game winning field goal on the next drive to win 23-20. Miami will try to get back on track this week, and they’ll have Reggie Bush back, their star tail back, who suffered a knee injury last week.
Arizona is a surprising 3-0 after last week’s win at Philadelphia. Defensively, they’ve been unstoppable, allowing the 2nd fewest points in the league so far, and giving up just two touchdowns. They will also likely get back Pro Bowl safety Adrian Wilson this week, in what is already a fearsome defensive unit.

The Line

The line opened originally at -4.5 and has move to Arizona -5.5. The total opened at 41 and has now dropped to 39 most places.

The Play

The Cardinals are off to a dream start – one that we think will end this week. If there was ever a time to for a ‘”letdown game” it would be this week for the Cardinals. The Dolphins have an excellent offensive line, probably the best one the Cardinals have faced all season. Tannenhill has also spread the ball around well, and should not be too overwhelmed with the help of the running game Reggie Bush provides. We like the Dolphins to catch the chiefs off guard.

Dolphins +5.5

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos -7 OvUn 48.5 4:05 EST

The Raiders looked like the worst team in football, before pulling of a 34-31 victory at home against Pittsburgh last week. They trailed all game before rallying the final quarter, scoring the game’s last 13 points. The Raiders may have hit their stride offensively, as Darren McFadden had his best game of the season, totaling 113 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Pittsburgh.
The Broncos hope to turn things around after a 1-2 start. Manning hasn’t been at his best so far this season, but he has faced three tough defenses to start the season. He and the Broncos will get their best matchup against a Raiders’ defense that is giving up nearly 270 yards through the air.

This is a massive game for both teams as they look to keep pace in the AFC West.

The Line

A Denver -5.5 opener has gone to -7 and at some shops is at -7.5. The total opened at 47.5 and is at 48.5 at most all shops.

The Play

Even though, the Raiders had a fantastic win last week, this one still feels like a gift for Broncos’ backers. Let’s not forget, the Raiders were at the bottom of every power rankings until this week, and perhaps that is why they caught the Steelers off guard. With injuries at cornerback, and a clearly weak secondary, the Raiders should be picked apart by Peyton Manning.
Denver -7

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 OvUn 47.5 4:25 EST

The Redskins and Buccaneers were both winners in Week 1, but now have dropped two straight. The Redskins lead the NFL in points per game with 33 but are giving up over 440 yards per contest to opponents. Robert Griffin III has still been impressive throwing for 747 yards, in three games, as a rookie. They will likely need another stellar performance from him, in an offense that is still without number one wideout, Pierre Garcon, who will likely miss his 3rd straight game.

The Buccaneers lost last week to the Cowboys 16-10, in what was a pathetic offensive performance from both teams. Josh Freeman has had a hard time connecting with his receivers, completing just over 51 percent of his passes so far this season. Also, the Buccaneers have struggled to defend the pass this year, giving up 350 yards per game through the air.

The Line

Tampa opened as -2 favorites and are now at -2.5 at most online bookies. The total has come down from a 49 opener, to 47.5

The Play

These teams both have problems defensively, but one thing that Tampa does well is defend the run. The Redskins are the NFL’s top rushers which is RG3’s go to way of moving the ball. The Bucs also haven’t lost a game by more than 7 points and have been playing tough, smash mouth football under Schiano.

Tampa Bay -2.5

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers -9 OvUn 53.5 4:25 EST

The Saints haven’t had the start to the season they envisioned. After a terrible offseason, one would think all the Saints would want is to just play football. Well, so far that focus hasn’t worked for them. Coming into Week 4 with a 0-3 record, the Saints are desperate for a win. Facing the Packers at home is no easy task, especially with one of the league’s worst defenses.

The Packers are also facing a 1-3 start with a loss, on Sunday. The 1-2 Packers lost on a controversial call last week, in which they lost the game on the final play. Still, the team has moved on, and will have their focus squarely on the Saints. The Packers have not been the high powered offense fans are used to so far this year. They lead the NFL in scoring last year with 35 ppg, and have just averaged 19 points through 3 weeks of the season.

The Line

Green Bay opened at -5 favorites, and the line has gone up drastically to -9 at some places, but 7.5 can still be found, as well. The total opened at 54 and is at 53 or 53.5 almost everywhere.

The Play

The Packers will likely win the game, but -9 is just a little too much to lay for a Packers’ team that has not looked the same as it did last year. This one will likely be a shootout, but a Saints +9 is a bet most of us have not seen in years. They still have Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Sproles and others to go against a porous Green Bay defense. This one stays close.

Saints +9

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles -1 OvUn 47.5 8:20 EST

Sunday Night Football is an NFC showdown this week, as the Giants take on the Eagles, in a game where one team will walk away with two losses.

The Giants beat Carolina handily last week on Thursday Night Football, 36-7. Eli has proven to be a savior for the Giants who have been ravaged by injuries offensively. He leads the league in yardage after a 288 performance last week, bringing his season total to 1,011 yards. The Giants have several extra days rest under their belts, and have starting running back, Ahmad Bradshaw back in action.

The Eagles 1-2, got pounded last week at Arizona, 27-6. Michael Vick had another rough day at the office, fumbling on a play that lead to a touchdown and getting sacked five times. The Eagles will need more improved play from their QB, who according to some news reports might be playing for his starting job on Sunday.

The Line

The Eagles opened as -3.5 favorites but are now down to -1. The total has not moved from the 47 opener too much and is at 47.5 at most books.

The Play

The Eagles certainly don’t look like a team that should be favored over anyone, let only the defending Superbowl Champions. Vick gets almost no protection from his o-line and has been making terrible decisions all season long. On the other hand, Eli has been, perhaps the best quarterback in the league, when you consider the Giants lack of running game and injuries at receiver. The Giants haven’t fared too well against the Eagles the past few years, but that will change on Sunday Night.

Giants +1

About the author

Eric Roberts
Eric Roberts

Sports Journalist

Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.