Week #11 NFL Betting Preview – November, 18th, 2012
The Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks and Tennessee Titans have byes in Week 11.
The Jets head into St. Louis on a four game losing streak, and while many teams around the league have gone to their backup QBs, for injury or performance reasons – New York has decided to stick with Mark Sanchez. Again, they lost 28-7 at Seattle last week and Sanchez completed less than 50 percent of his passes and threw for just 124 yards. The Jets are mired in controversy, and many front office personnel are worried about their jobs.
St. Louis played to a 24-24 tie last week, against one of the best teams in the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers. Now 3-5-1 on the season, the Rams look to get back on track after a three game winless streak, two losses and one tie. QB Sam Bradford has played increasingly well as of late and has his best weapon in wide out Danny Amendola back in action. Amendola is a true playmaker and is averaging 90 yards per game in receiving when he has played.
Opened at Rams -1, but after heavy action on St. Louis it has moved several points and even past the magic number of -3 to -3.5. The total has moved slightly higher from 38 to 39.
The Jets look horrific in all phases of the game, and the Rams continue to improve. Despite, how Coach Ryan may feel about this season and his team, it looks like the Jets have been mailing it in for weeks now. The re-emergence of Amendola has done wonders for Bradford, and the Rams should not struggle to control this game on both sides of the ball.
We’ve gone for the Rams -3.5
Two AFC south teams headed in opposite directions face off Sunday, as the 1-8 Jaguars take on the 8-1 Texans.
Houston is tied for the best record in the NFL; winning 13-6 last week in a gritty, grind it out win against the Chicago Bears. The Texans were limited to just 215 yards on offense, but got big play after big play from their defense. Their four forced turnovers keyed in the victory.
Jacksonville is tied with Kansas City for the NFL’s worst record at 1-8. They fell again last week to the Colts, losing 27-10 in last Thursday’s game. They have been disappointing in all facets of the game, ranking bottom five in total offense and defense.
Opened at Houston -16 and has moved down to -15 pretty much everywhere. The total has trended downward from 42.5 to 40.5 or 41.
For whatever reason – perhaps their apathetic fan base – the Jaguars seem to play better on the road. They are 4-0 against the spread in road matchups and average 20.0 points per game in road contests so far this season. The Texans gutted out a tough game last week, and even though the Jacksonville team is clearly outmatched, the Texans don’t normally try and run up the score on opponents. They stick with a power running game and eat up the clock. 15 points are a lot, especially in a divisional game and in a letdown spot for the Bears.
We like Jacksonville to cover – Jaguars +15
The 2-7 Browns haven’t had much to cheer about this year, but are coming off their bye week much healthier and will try to end the second half of their season on a high note. Their last game was a 25-15 loss to Baltimore on Nov. 4th, in which Cleveland kicker Phil Dawson kicked five field goals. They will need to rely heavily on running back Trent Richardson against Dallas, the young rookie is finally healthy and will likely get an extended workload. He has rushed for 227 yards and a touchdown in Cleveland’s last week two games.
The Cowboys at 4-5 are still in the hunt for the playoffs, but every game comes with increasing importance. Going for their fourth straight win, Dallas has handled Philadelphia last week in a 38-23 victory, mostly facing Philly Rookie QB Nick Foles. Romo threw for two touchdowns and Felix Jones had a combined rushing and receiving 93 yards as well as a touchdown.
This one opened at -7 and is at -7.5 and -9 depending on the book. The total has not moved much from the opener of 44 and is at 43.5 at mostly all books.
The Cowboys have been extremely inconsistent this season and have been extremely poor at their home stadium. The Browns certainly are not a good football team, but are coming off a bye week and finally have many of their key players healthy again. Though, cornerback Joe Haden is questionable, he should suit up tomorrow for the Browns. Dallas has had many losses in their linebacking and run stopping core, and we foresee a momentous day for Trent Richardson.
We like the Browns to keep this one close – Cleveland +9
Cincinnati faces possibly the worst team in the AFC this week, in a matchup with the hapless Chiefs. The Bengals broke a four game losing streak against the Giants last week as Andy Dalton threw for a career high four touchdowns in a 31-13 victory against the defending Super Bowl champion Giants.
The 1-8 Chiefs, on the other hand, suffered another loss. Dropping their sixth straight, the Chiefs almost scored a victory in overtime against Pittsburgh last week, but ultimately fell 16-13 after a Matt Cassel interception to start the OT period.
Chiefs +3 are still available at most shops, but some have moved to +3.5 after heavy Cincy betting action. The total has moved down slightly from 44 to 43.5.
While the Bengals might be due for a letdown after a big win against the Giants last week, we simply can’t trust the Chiefs. Though, they showed signs of life last week in Pittsburgh, they have been downright horrible in recent weeks.
We’ll take the Bengals by default, in this unappetizing matchup – Bengals +3
The Packers are coming off a bye but have rattled off four consecutive wins in the past four matchups. Their 31-17 victory at Arizona on Nov. 4th was a clinic for Rodgers who threw for three touchdowns. Still, the Pack is banged up, but Green Bay will have number 1 wide out Jordy Nelson back in the fold this week.
The Packers will be happy to have Nelson back to face off against the potent Lions’ offense. Leading the league in passing yards per game with 307.3, that was not enough to beat Minnesota last week as the Lions fell 34-24. Detroit has had to rely on the passing attack because they trailed in most games this season. They have only led to start the 4th quarter in one game this season.
Has not moved from the opener of Detroit +3 and the total has moved from 51 to 52.5 or 52.5.
The total is at 52, the second highest of this week’s contests. The Lions have given up enormous yardage and points to the Packers in recent appearances, including a 45-41 loss to end last season that Rodgers did not even play in. The Lions have gone over in their last five games, and injuries defensively look ripe for this one to head over the projected total again.
Go for the overs – Over 52
The Eagles are most likely in the mist of another lost season and will be without QB Michael Vick this week. Rookie QB Nick Foles gets the nod at QB and had been impressive in the preseason. In relief of Vick, in a 38-23 loss of Dallas last week, Foles completed 22 of 32 passes for 219 yards and a touchdown.
The Redskins have been hampered by poor defensive play and poor quarterbacking, but look to regroup after their bye week in Week 10. Losing to Carolina in Week 9, Robert Griffin III has to regain some of the magic he possessed earlier in the year if the Redskins want to get back to their winning ways. The QB has thrown just one touchdown in the past two weeks and has completed just over 50 percent of his passes.
Opened at Philly -1.5 and has moved to -3.5 as the consensus line. The total opened at 46 and has moved to 44.5
Both of these teams are reeling, and could use a victory in what already are likely loss seasons for both franchises. We look for both teams to stick with their ground game, and battle for field position in this NFC East affair. The Eagles line is still terrible, and though turnovers may lead to points, we like Foles to keep the ball secure.
We project this one under the total of 44.5.
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