Super Bowl XVLII Prop Betting Picks

This years Superbowl should be a close affair and as always the US sportsbooks have come with a wide range of prop bets to satisfy the betting needs of the millions of NFL fans across the USA.

Super Bowl XVLII MVP

Percy Harvin 16/1

As I mentioned in my Super Bowl betting preview, I like Seattle to win a close game. While Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch are both favored ahead of Harvin to win, (both are listed at 15/4) and rightfully so, I love Percy as a dark horse to win the MVP.

His breakaway speed and ability after the catch seemed to almost be forgotten after his injury plagued year. Wide receiver Terrell Owens famously shocked doctors in Super Bowl XXIX after returning just seven weeks removed from a broken leg. Though Philadelphia lost the game, Owens caught nine balls for 122 yards and was the main reason the Eagles kept it close with New England.

I could see a similar performance coming from Harvin, who is in much better physical shape than Owens was when he came back from injury. He is a full-go and should be close to an every-down player in this one. His ability to break the game open by returning punts and kickoffs adds another area where he will be able to make an impact.’

Russell Wilson Over 32.5 Rushing Yards

While the Broncos will likely key in on Lynch in the running game, Wilson has the ability to make plays with his legs, as well. He rushed for nearly 500 yards during the regular season, and the Broncos have had issues with dual-threat quarterbacks this season. If he breaks one decent run early-on, he will pretty much be halfway to his goal almost immediately.

Will there be a defensive or special teams TD scored in the game? Yes +155

Neither special teams unit is particularly poor, but in any game that Percy Harvin returning kicks, this number gets a little higher. There is no better secondary at creating turnovers than Seattle’s and Manning may force balls into coverage if Seattle gets down late.

How many successful 3 point Field Goals will be kicked in the game? Over 3.5 +110

As I mentioned in my betting write up for the game, I think this one will be rather low scoring. A 23-20 or 24-21 final is what I imagine we will end up seeing. Even the gun slinging Broncos will have to be careful against Seattle’s tough secondary, especially in the red zone. Every turnover will be hugely important, and I think these teams will be calling a more conservative game once they are in field goal range. Neither one of these teams wants to give the other the upper hand and will be sure to come away with something on the board provided they get a scoring opportunity.

Total Reception Yards – Julius Thomas Over 55.5

“Orange Julius” gets the best matchup out of any Broncos pass catcher in this one. He will likely move around the formation and see a variety of defenders but will mostly avoid Sherman and Maxwell, Seattle’s top corners. Instead, he will face outside linebacker K.J. Wright in coverage and strong safety Kam Chancellor over the top. Thomas has my favorite matchup in a game that will be tough for Denver’s pass catchers. Manning has relied on his safety valve tight end a lot in these playoffs, and I think he has a monster game come Sunday.

Total QB Sacks in the game by the Seahawks – Over 2 Sacks +135

It is tough to predict sacks for Manning, firstly because he gets the ball out so quickly and second because he has a strong offensive line. However, let’s remember that Manning is a pocket passer to the core and is vulnerable to traditional pressure and is not evasive in the pocket. The Seahawks’ coverage will make it tougher to find open targets and their pass rush is one of the best in the league. I think he will be vulnerable to pressure and get taken down several times.

Total Receiving Yards – Marshawn Lynch Under 15.5 -125

While Lynch has been utilized as a receiver in certain games this year heavily, he has fallen out of that role as of late. A pure power back, he will be purely running it down the throat of Denver’s front all evening. The emergence of Jermaine Kearse and Doug Baldwin has given Wilson more options in the passing game, and Percy Harvin’s return gives him another downfield target.

They rarely even run screens to Lynch anymore. Other than a big game against Giants in December where he caught six passes for 73 yards, which the increase in targets was likely due to injuries to Baldwin and Tate – he has not gone over 16 yards receiving in nine out of his 11 out of his 12 games. In two playoff games, he has one reception for three yards.

As well as all the game related props there are almost endless numbers of novelty prop bets that can be made on this years Superbowl. Some examples of these are who President Barack Obama will choose as his pick to win the Superbowl, the song that Bruno Mars will sing first, will the half time show be the most watched in Superbowl history, how many times “beast mode” will be said throughout the game, whether the announcers will say the word marijuana throughout the broadcast etc etc; the list is almost infinite with everything from the likely to the absurd and everything in between.