NFL Week 10 2013 – Miami Dolphins At Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 Total: 41

Monday, November 11th, 2013 TV: ESPN 8:30 EDT

The talk of the league the past week has been the ongoing Jonathan Joseph and Richie Incognito harassment saga. We don’t to bore bettors with details they probably already know, other than that both players will be out for week’s game against Tampa Bay.

The Dolphins insist they are “sticking together as a team” and won’t let the sideshow distract them from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Miami started off the season winning their first three games but dropped their four contests. They finally broke their losing streak last Thursday night against the Bengals, winning the game 22-20 in overtime, on a Cameron Wake safety.

Lamar Miller had a career rushing day in the win, rushing for 105 yards on 16 carries. Miami has rushed for more than 120 yards in three straight games. However, their offense line has been shaky all year, and the loss of Incognito will hit them hard. Ryan Tannehill has already been sacked the most times this season.

Defensively, it has been a mixed bag for the Dolphins who have been terrible against the run lately but much better against the pass. This is opposite what we thought we would see from them coming into the year, and they are still vulnerable to big plays.

Tampa Bay is one of the two winless teams still left coming into Week 10. Surprisingly, they have been in more games as of late and almost pulled a stunning upset last week in Seattle. The Buccaneers led 21-0 in the second quarter but didn’t score another point after kicking a field goal to lead 24-7 in the third quarter. Seattle stormed back and won the game 27-24.

The highlight of the game for the Buccaneers was rookie running back Mike James, who ran for a career high 158 yards for the injured Doug Martin. Martin was placed on injured reserve on Thursday, ending his season.

Tampa has been relatively poor defensively and has been playing standout cornerback Darrelle Revis in man coverage. They can never seem to hold a lead late in the game, even with a double digit lead to work with.

The Line

This game opened at Tampa Bay +4.5 at some shops but is now between +1 and +3 depending on the book. The total has moved slightly from an opening number of 40 to 41 and 41.5.

The Play

Miami is one of my favorite plays this week for a number of reasons. Firstly, they are flat out better than the Buccaneers at nearly every position besides the offensive line. The Fins are also coming off extra rest from their Thursday night game – and since they are playing on Monday night – they will have the most rest an NFL team can receive without going on their bye week.

Their scandal has also done another thing – it has brought this team together. The players are rallying together and are more determined than ever to get a win. On paper, it is an excellent matchup to begin with, but when you add these extra factors, it is a must-bet this week.

Lay the points with Miami -3 on the road with Bovada.