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It’s time for another four-team, 6.5-point NFL teaser, and for this we are going back to Top Bet, because at least we won three parts of our teaser last week (with a push on the other). The way it works is that this effectively got reduced to a three-team teaser, where we got paid +140 (7/5).
Our possible payout on this four-team exotic wager is +200 (2/1), so we better make some sound decisions.
Without further delay, let’s take a look at who we’re going to use:
A lot of NFL bettors believe in the San Diego Chargers; we’re certain of it. But the Chargers are making an east coast trip – their third of the season – and they will be running into a relatively desperate Washington Redskins side. No, Robert Griffin III did not have a good game against Denver last week (15 of 30, 132 yards), but you and I know he can do better. And since it looks as if he will be just fine for this one (had a knee tweak last week), he will supply one of the things that should give San Diego trouble here, which is his ability to scramble and buy time.
Let’s also keep in mind that the Redskins can run the ball, and that might wind up being nothing but trouble for a Charger front that is yielding 4.8 ypc (yards per carry). And through we don’t often talk about “look-ahead” situations in the NFL, you’ve got to wonder whether San Diego has an eye on that game with Denver scheduled for next week. And speaking of the Broncos, Washington not only hung with them, but had the lead going into the fourth quarter against Peyton Manning & Co. before collapsing. They are actually getting a point in the betting lines at Top Bet, so they become 7.5-point dogs with us.
The Cleveland Browns are a team that has the ability to stay in the thick of things with defense. That’s one thing we definitely like. They can slow down the Baltimore running game (as they are allowing just 3.7 yards a carry) and despite their 3-4 record it may surprise some people that they are actually outgaining their opponents on a per-play basis.
Sure, there are plenty of things NOT to like about the Browns. For instance, they aren’t running the ball very well, by and large. But they are not without short passing outlets, and at least they have some veteran leadership at the helm in Jason Campbell, who got sacked only once in last week’s loss to Kansas City. The Ravens’ last four games have been decided by a TOTAL of eleven points, so with Joe Flacco’s tendency to get erratic as often as not (8 TD’s, 8 INT’s), we’re happy grabbing extra points here. At TopBet the Browns are a three-point underdog, so we are going into this teaser with Cleveland +9.5.
The New York Jets are coming off a 49-9 beatdown they suffered at the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals. So you just KNOW that Rex Ryan has cracked the whip on them this week. Coming into town is brother Rob, who runs the New Orleans Saints defense, and there aren’t likely to be many surprises in dealing with the Saints’ stop unit. Things generally get a lot tighter for New Orleans on the road, in the elements, than they are under the Superdome, where they have covered 13 in a row when Sean Payton is the coach. In the Meadowlands there are wind currents to deal with, and that’s never comfortable for the visitor. We wouldn’t be surprised if Jets running back Chris Ivory was very stoked to get a chance to face his former team either. The Saints are giving up 4.8 yards per rushing attempt, and that will mean something for the potential “ground and pound.” With the home team getting six points in the pro football odds at Top Bet, we are happy to put the Jets in our teaser play at +12.5.
We would consider the Dallas Cowboys against the Minnesota Vikings, who won’t announce their starting quarterback until Friday (another stroke of genius from Leslie Frazier), but you want to avoid having to lay a field goal AFTER the teaser if you possibly can. And you want to avoid crossing a teaser that turns a three-point favorite into a three-point dog (as in the case of the Oakland Raiders) because you lose value with something like that.
So we are left with the St. Louis Rams, who put forth a valiant effort on Monday night and had a chance to beat the Seattle Seahawks before falling 14-9. Kellen Clemens didn’t a lot, passing for 177 yards and two interceptions, and the fact that he was sacked five times bothers us. But the Rams’ defense looks like it is in “sellout” mode, and you know that Jeff Fisher is going to have his team recovered and focused – just like he is – for this game against the team that employed him for 17 years. Chris Johnson has averaged 3.2 ypc and hasn’t scored a rushing TD. Would YOU lay 9.5 points on the road with the Tennessee Titans? Would ANY NFL bettor in his or her right mind? Nope; we’d much rather be on the “take.”
So let’s do a little review. We’ve got:
N.Y. Jets +12.5
St. Louis +9.5
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