MNF Week 4 2013 – Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints -6.5 Total: 48

Monday, September 29th, 2013 TV: ESPN 8:30 EDT

This game could easily be one of the best Monday Night matchups of all year. Both the Saints and Miami are undefeated coming into this game, and something has to give.

The Dolphins are off to their best start since 2002 going 3-0 against some of the NFL’s tougher teams. Miami beat up on Cleveland in Week 1 and have won two close games against the Colts and Falcons. The Fins rallied late against the Falcons and won the game with just under a minute left in regulation on a touchdown pass from Ryan Tannehill to tight end Dion Sims.

The Dolphins have been relatively untouched on the offensive side from injuries, but they have dealt with some health issues on their already subpar defense. They will again be without starting right cornerback Dmitri Patterson, and defensive lineman Cameron Wake and Paul Soliai are still questionable.

New Orleans seems to be back to their old selves, and the reunion with head coach Sean Payton looks to be going brilliantly. The Saints matched their third win of the year in a 31-7 rout against Arizona. Quarterback Drew Brees was electric in the win, throwing for 321 yards and three touchdowns. Tight end Jimmy Graham continued his torrid start to the season, notching another two touchdowns and 124 yards receiving.

The Saints also have been somewhat lucky on the injury front. Their improved defense will take a small hit this week with safety Roman Harper out with injury. Running back Mark Ingram and receiver Lance Moore are also both questionable and likely to miss Monday Night’s matchup.

The Line

This game opened at New Orleans -5 and has been bet up to at least -6.5 at most books, and many have the Saints at -7. The total opened at 47 and is listed at 48 and 48.5.

The Play

I absolutely love this Dolphins team. I picked them the last two weeks, and I think the talent on this team is severely underrated, but I think they are a year or two away from beating top-tier contenders like the Saints.

Miami and Ryan Tannehill may be able to move the ball against New Orleans’ defense however it’s unlikely that they will find an easy time. Tannehill has been extremely impressive this year, but he is only in his second year and so far the Saints pass rush has been excellent. Miami may have better success running the ball, but will likely abandon the run as Brees starts putting up points.

The Dolphins rank 20th in the league in passing yards allowed, and after this week, that ranking is going to go up. The Saints offense should easily be able to put up 30 plus points against the Miami’s poor secondary.

A touchdown seems like a large number to lay against an undefeated team, but I don’t think Miami is ready for the primetime stage just yet. In a year or two this team is going to be a major force in this league, but they just are not there yet.

Lay the points with the Saints -7 at home with TopBet.eu.