Mid-Summer NFL Preview: Regular Season Win Totals

While we are still about a week away from training camp, the oddsmakers have posted their regular season win totals for the upcoming 2014-15 NFL Season. There are still plenty of position battles and the inevitable preseason injury that will cause these odds to change, perhaps drastically, before the season starts, so there’s plenty of value to have if bettors spot something they like.

We’ll be using odds from one of the most trusted sportsbooks in the offshore industry, Bovada.lv. Bovada offers a 50% Free Bet Bonus up to $250 for first-time depositors and a host of other gridiron related promotions.

Bovada’s odds may differ slightly from some other larger sportsbooks, as they like to say on certain numbers but increase the attached vigorish. Bettors will see a lot of -130 or -150, whereas other sites may just move the line.

As always, line shopping is paramount to getting the best price when betting team props like regular season win totals. The totals listed below are a part of the 16-game regular season schedule and do not count postseason wins or losses.

Team and Projected Wins	Odds
Denver Broncos	11.5 Ov ( EVEN ) Un ( -130 )
Seattle Seahawks	11 Ov ( -115 ) Un ( -115 )
New England Patriots	11 Ov ( -115 ) Un ( -115 )
San Francisco 49ers	10.5 Ov ( EVEN ) Un ( -130 )
Green Bay Packer	10.5 Ov ( -115 ) Un ( -115 )
New Orleans Saints	10 Ov ( -115 ) Un ( -115 )
Indianapolis Colts	9.5 Ov ( -130 ) Un ( EVEN )
Cincinnati Bengals	9 Ov ( -125 ) Un ( -105 )
Philadelphia Eagles	9 Ov ( -140 ) Un ( +110 )
Atlanta Falcons	8.5 Ov ( -115 ) Un ( -115 )
Baltimore Ravens	8.5 Ov ( -130 ) Un ( EVEN )
Carolina Panthers	8.5 Ov ( +120 ) Un ( -150 )
Chicago Bears	8.5 Ov ( -115 ) Un ( +125 )
Detroit Lions	8.5 Ov ( EVEN ) Un ( -130 )
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.5 Ov ( -150 ) Un ( +120 )
Kansas City Chiefs	8 Ov ( -105 ) Un ( -125 )
Miami Dolphins	8.0 Ov ( +110 ) Un ( -140 )
New York Giants	8.0 Ov ( -130 ) Un ( EVEN )
San Diego Chargers	8 Ov ( -130 ) Un ( EVEN )
Arizona Cardinals	7.5 Ov ( -150 ) Un ( +120 )
Dallas Cowboys	7.5 Ov ( -115 ) Un ( -115 )
Houston Texans	7.5 Ov ( -150 ) Un ( +120 )
St. Louis Rams	7.5 Ov ( -150 ) Un ( +125 )
Washington Redskins	7.5 Ov ( -130 ) Un ( EVEN )
Tennessee Titans	7.0 Ov ( EVEN ) Un ( -130 )
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.0 Ov ( -130 ) Un ( EVEN )
New York Jets	7.0 Ov ( -135 ) Un ( +105 )
Buffalo Bills	6.5 Ov ( -150 ) Un ( +120 )
Cleveland Browns	6.5 Ov ( -140 ) Un ( +110 )
Minnesota Vikings	6.0 Ov ( -150 ) Un ( +120 )
Oakland Raiders	5.0 Ov ( -135 ) Un ( +105 )
Jacksonville Jaguars	5.0 Ov ( -130 ) Un ( EVEN )

 

Some of Our Favorite Bets

Jacksonville Jaguars Over(-130) 5.0 Wins

Coming off a 4-12 season the Jaguars have been failed to make it back to the playoffs since the David Gerrard, Jack Del-Rio era. Gone is veteran running back Maurice Jones-Drew and failed QB project Blaine Gabbert. The Jaguars took Blake Bortles as the third overall pick in this year’s draft as their QB of the future.

Bortles is physically gifted but will likely sit on the sidelines in his first year as the Jags go with incumbent Chad Henne as their starter. Henne has been pedestrian in Jacksonville, but the offense as a whole has sputtered.

Breakout receiver Justin Blackmon will likely be suspended the full season for drug violations, but Henne still has two-reliable targets in receiver Cecil Shorts III and tight end Mercedes Lewis. Ace Sanders is another offensive playmaker and punt returner who could potentially surprise.

Toby Gerhart comes over from Minnesota to establish a running game, an area where Jones-Drew struggled last season. Gerhart is in the prime of his career at 27 and is a tank at 231 pounds. Coming out from the shadow of Adrian Peterson, Gerhart is a favorite of many experts to have a breakout year.

Head Coach Gus Bradley’s system didn’t work to its potential last year due to the team’s inability to move the ball offensively, but Gerhart was brought in to do just that. Bradley’s defensive schemes work best with a power running game, and I think this team found the perfect guy to pound the rock via free agency.

Though their schedule looks tough out of the gate, they have improved in the offseason and should be able to keep it close with teams in the second half. They’re great bet to win six or seven in a top-heavy AFC South.

Dallas Cowboys Under(-115) 7.5 Wins

Dallas is easily one of the most popular teams in the league and for that reason they usually garner a lot of betting action. Their win total will likely be one of the numbers that is closely watched by the oddsmakers. Many fans of the team who end up wagering this market will also likely be taking the over.

I think Dallas is heavily overrated coming into this season. No one is expecting them to be Super Bowl contenders, but many have them notched for 9 or 10-win season.

Sure, their offense put up some gaudy numbers, and there is no doubt plenty of talent on that side of the ball. They have a Pro-Bowl QB in Tony Romo and one of the top wide receivers in the league in Dez Bryant. The team also addressed a need on the offensive line by drafting offensive tackle Zack Martin out of Notre Dame.

Romo’s health continues to be a question mark, even though he’s on track to be fully healthy coming into camp. One bad hit to his back and he could sidelined for an extended period, which could derail the season for Dallas.

All the pressure seems to ride on Romo. If he goes down or if the Cowboys’ offense doesn’t click in a big way, it could be a long season in Big D. Afer all, the Cowboys big numbers on offense mostly had to do with them playing from behind for much of the season.

While Dallas went defensive in this year’s draft and brought in defensive wiz Monte Kiffin to become their defensive coordinator, the Cowboys have merely shuffled the chairs around on their Titanic-esque of a defense.

They lost their best pass rusher and heart and soul of the defense in defensive end DeMarcus Ware to free agency. Linebacker Sean Lee was placed on the injured reserve and will miss the entire season after being injured most of last year as well.

Kiffin is an excellent defensive coach, but he isn’t a miracle worker. This defense is going to lose the Cowboys a lot of games. On top of that, they’re in the tough AFC East where several teams have improved this offseason. This looks to be a year that Dallas fans may want to forget.

Cleveland Browns Under(+110) 6.5 Wins

The Browns have seemed to be in a perpetual rebuild for the last decade, mostly because they haven’t found a quarterback. Cleveland drafted Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel late in the first round, but have stated that Brian Hoyer is their starter. It will be interesting to see who is starting Week 1 and beyond, but both of these guys won’t have much help offensively.

Josh Gordon, who looked like the best receiver in the league not named Calvin Johnson, is likely to miss the entire season due to suspensions related to the NFL drug policy. He is a tremendous loss for a team that has few offensive weapons as it is.

The defense is one of the better units in the league, but with a tough schedule and an AFC North with three other teams that look closer to playoff contention, Cleveland may again become the divisional whipping boy.

Most notably, Bovada’s under price of +110 is excellent. Manziel’s ego and Hollywood persona have taken on a life of their own and have become a sideshow. Fans all around the country honestly think this guy is going to turn this team around as soon as this year, despite the fact that he hasn’t even been given the starting job.

The public, the betting demographic that Bovada caters to, are loving Cleveland. The over 6.5 wins is at -140. This looks like a four or five win football team, at best.