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Chiefs To End Super Bowl Drought By Beating Patriots

January 18, 2019

The Kansas City Chiefs are aiming to reach the Super Bowl for the first time since Super Bowl IV when they take on the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs are hosting the AFC title game for the first time in their history. Their last trip to the Super Bowl came before the merger between the AFL and the NFL, highlighting the lack of success the franchise have enjoyed over the last 50 years.

Kansas City last reached the AFC Championship in the 1993 season before current quarterback Patrick Mahomes was born. However, Mahomes and company delivered last week in a comprehensive victory over the Indianapolis Colts in the Divisional Round.

The Patriots are a stark contrast to their rivals. New England reached the AFC Championship Game for a staggering eighth year in a row and quarterback Tom Brady will be competing in the title game for the 13th time in his 18 years in the NFL.

Bill Belichick’s men were outstanding last week to see off the Los Angeles Chargers, who had a daunting record on the road. However, they were brushed aside with ease to allow the Patriots to move within one game of the Super Bowl.

The clash between the Chiefs and the Patriots was a thriller in the regular season in Foxborough. Now in Kansas City it will be interesting to see whether the Chiefs can use home-field advantage to secure a Super Bowl berth.

Mahomes can guide the Chiefs to the Super Bowl

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs earned their spot as the top seed in the AFC and have to use Arrowhead Stadium to their advantage to secure their first Super Bowl berth since the 1969 season. They were able use the noise of the home crowd along with the frigid conditions to see off the Colts with relative ease last week.

Mahomes and company were on song from the off, scoring on their first three drives of the game.  Kansas City enjoyed a 17-point lead before Indianapolis blocked a punt for a return touchdown. The Chiefs have displayed vulnerabilities in the past in playoff matches, but responded immediately to the setback. Their reply dispelled that notions that this team were like Chiefs teams’ of the past – talented but not cool under pressure. On this occasion Reid’s men were composed and cruised into the Championship Game.

Even though the Chiefs lost to the Patriots during the regular season they’ve given them all they can handle in their previous meetings. On their last visit to Arrowhead, New England were smashed 41-14, while Kansas City also defeated them in the 2017 regular season opener. Tyreek Hill has thrived in the last two games against Belichick’s men, notching 14 receptions for 275 yards and four touchdowns. He will be the key to defeating New England in his ability to get deep over the top.

Kansas City have to earn a lead and force Brady to chase them. Hill, Travis Kelce and Mahomes have the ability to carve out the advantage. This in turn will allow Chris Jones, Dee Ford and Justin Houston to get after Brady, preventing the visitors from establishing the run. The Chiefs have to play the game on their terms to advance to the Super Bowl.

New England Patriots

The Patriots reached the AFC Championship Game for an astonishing eighth time in a row courtesy of their win over the Chargers. New England were sporadic on offense during the regular season, rarely producing the level of excellence expected of them with Brady at the quarterback position. However, they put on a clinic against the Los Angeles, scoring on their opening four possessions to put the game away in the second quarter. A fumble by Desmond King allowed Belichick’s men to take a 35-7 lead into the break and from that point onwards it was an exercise of avoiding key injuries.

Although the Chargers put 28 points on the board, New England’s defense pounded Philip Rivers all game, making him pay for every throw. They will need that level of play and a lot more on the road to stop Mahomes. The 23-year-old has made a number of incredible throws from impossible positions.

The Patriots boast an experienced secondary and will have to use their knowledge and craft to get the better of Kansas City’s wideouts to prevent a high-scoring contest. Trey Flowers will lead the pass-rush, continuing to enhance his reputation before he becomes a free agent in the off-season. Only a perfect game from the defense will be enough on Sunday.

The Patriots’ offense has flowed through their running game rather than the arm of Brady this term. Every time Sony Michel has had success on the ground, New England have scored points with ease. Brady remains potent, but does not have the elite targets of old outside of Julian Edelman. To win against Kansas City they will have to control the contest by rushing effectively as putting the game solely on Brady may lead to trouble.

Head to Head

Games Played: 36 Kansas City Chiefs: 18 New England Patriots: 15 Tied: 3

The Patriots defeated the Chiefs in a thriller in their match-up in week six of the regular season. New England took a 24-9 lead in the first half courtesy of two touchdowns from Michel along with a strike from Brady to Edelman. However, Mahomes led a comeback in the second half, connecting with former running back Kareem Hunt before Hill notched three touchdowns.

A score from Brady and four field goals from Stephen Gostkowski secured the win for New England, although it was a close call. The Patriots won the only post-season match between the two teams back in the 2015 season when the claimed a 27-20 triumph in the Divisional Round. Kansas City hammered the Patriots on their last trip to Arrowhead, which will be in the minds of Reid and his remaining players from the contest in 2014.

Match Betting Options

The Patriots have the experience in the post-season as they look to secure a spot in the Super Bowl for the third year in a row. However, their record on the road has been poor this term, losing five out of their three games. Kansas City have lost only once at Arrowhead this term and have the talent to expose New England’s defense as they have done in the past. It should be a close contest between two quality teams, but given their home-field advantage, take the Chiefs to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1969 at odds of -145  with Bovada.

Back the Patriots on the +3 spread to cover the points in what could be a role reversal of the contest earlier in the year at odds of +102  with BetOnline. The total points’ line has been set at 55.5 points by TopBet, taking the under would be the wise option at odds of -110 . A defensive or special teams score should be on the cards at odds of +175  with TopBet.

Player Betting Options

Hill has tormented the Patriots in their meetings and it will be no surprise to see him lead the Championship round in receiving yards at odds of +400  with Bovada. The attention drawn by Hill could lead to opportunities for other receivers to score, back Sammy Watkins for a touchdown anytime at odds of 2/1  with Bet365. All eyes will be on Mahomes in his duel with Brady. Reports suggested that the weather would be freezing in Kansas City on Sunday.

However, warmer temperatures are now expected which will help the quarterbacks. Mahomes shredded New England’s defense last time out, expect him to do so again at odds of +195  to lead the Championship Round in passing yards with Bovada. James White has a nose for the endzone for the Patriots, especially in the playoffs. He has great value to score anytime at odds of 27/20  with 888Sport. Michel could come to the fore for New England again for value he has good odds with Bovada to lead the Championship Round in rushing yards at +300 .

Tips Summary

Kansas City Chiefs To Beat New England Patriots
Sunday 20th January 2019 18:40 ET (23:40 GMT)
Odds: -165

New England Patriots +3 Spread
Sunday 20th January 2019 18:40 ET (23:40 GMT)
Odds: +102

Under 55.5 Total Points To Be Scored
Sunday 20th January 2019 18:40 ET (23:40 GMT)
Odds: -110

Defensive Or Special Teams Touchdown To Be Scored
Sunday 20th January 2019 18:40 ET (23:40 GMT)
Odds: +175

James White To Score Touchdown Anytime
Sunday 20th January 2019 18:40 ET (23:40 GMT)
Odds: 27/20

Sony Michel To Lead Championship Round In Rushing Yards
Sunday 20th January 2019 18:40 ET (23:40 GMT)
Odds: +300

Sammy Watkins To Score Touchdown Anytime
Sunday 20th January 2019 18:40 ET (23:40 GMT)
Odds: 2/1

Patrick Mahomes To Lead Championship Round In Passing Yards
Sunday 20th January 2019 18:40 ET (23:40 GMT)
Odds: +195

Tyreek Hill To Lead Championship Round In Receiving Yards
Sunday 20th January 2019 18:40 ET (23:40 GMT)
Odds: +400

  • Kansas City Chiefs
  • New England Patriots
  • NFL
  • Patrick Mahomes
  • Tom Brady

    About the author

    Simon Sinclair
    Simon Sinclair

    Sports Writer

    Simon is a freelance sports writer from the UK. He passionately writes about all kinds of sports, sharing his predictions on everything from the latest cricket matches and golf tournaments to major horse racing events and popular American sports.