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Can Mahomes And Chiefs Defeat The Jags Defense?

October 5, 2018

The Kansas City Chiefs are one of two unbeaten teams remaining in the NFL entering week five’s round of matches. However, they will face a stiff test of their resolve and execution under pressure facing the vaunted Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.

Patrick Mahomes continued his excellent start to the 2018 season with a brilliant display to lead his side to a comeback victory over the Denver Broncos on Monday. The 23-year-old held his poise and was able to make throws downfield under immense pressure to lead the Chiefs to the triumph on the road in one of the most hostile environments in the NFL.

Kansas City started the last campaign with a 5-0 record, only to peter out in the middle of the campaign. Andy Reid’s men have to maintain their impressive start to the term and the form of Mahomes seems to suggest that they are capable of notching a victory over the talented defense of the Jaguars.

Jacksonville bounced back from their first loss of the campaign, easing past the New York Jets. It was not a completely clean performance, but Doug Marrone’s side were solid enough in all three phases of the game to clinch the win on home soil. The Jaguars will have to take their game to a new level to stop Mahomes and company on the road to make another statement in the AFC Conference.

Mahomes is eyeing his fifth win in a row

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have been outstanding to start the season with Mahomes leading their charge. Reid made a gamble in the off-season to trade away Alex Smith, replacing him with Mahomes as the club’ starter at the quarterback position. The move has yielded dividends in the early stages of the campaign. Mahomes has thrown for 1,200 yards and 14 touchdowns in his opening four matches without committing a turnover. The 23-year-old has been on point with his throws downfield, connecting with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, while he has also displayed impressive movement in the pocket to evade the pass-rush. Mahomes has been everything that the Chiefs hoped he would be after they moved up in the 2017 Draft to select him 10th overall.

The challenge for the quarterback is sustaining his form over the course of the campaign. He has the raw attributes needed to succeed, but teams now have over four weeks of film on him and he along with his coaches will need to adjust. Kareem Hunt has not been quite as effective as he was last season out of the backfield, averaging just 4.1 yards per rush this term. His time could come later in the term when the weather gets colder and passing becomes slightly more difficult.

The Chiefs’ offense has needed to be on form as their defense has struggled immensely in the opening month of the season. They almost allowed a late drive from Case Keenum to give up the lead late in the game against the Broncos, but they managed to hold firm in the redzone. Eric Berry’s continued absence with a heel injury has left them exposed in the secondary. Their pass-rush has been inconsistent, although Dee Ford and Justin Houston have combined for six sacks between them. Kansas City require stronger performances from their defense to make a surge for the Super Bowl a reality.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been a mystery this season and will continue to be throughout the campaign. Their offense was sublime in dismantling the New England Patriots on home soil, only to fall flat on their face against the Tennessee Titans in the following week. Their defense has been solid enough, although they have at times give up plays downfield. They’ve not played a complete game yet, which is a scary proposition for the rest of the AFC Conference. Alternatively Marrone’s men could just be an inconsistent outfit that they were in the 2017 season. Jacksonville are capable of producing great performances against good teams, such as their win over the Patriots or their triumph against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Divisional Round of the playoffs last term. They will need a special effort to see off the unbeaten Chiefs on the road.

Bortles returned to form last week against the Jets, throwing for 388 yards and two touchdowns. He endured a difficult time in his side’s defeat to the Titans, proving that he’s a long way from the upper echelons of NFL quarterbacks. The clash against the Chiefs will be a test of his abilities as he may have to match Mahomes score-for-score in drives downfield. The Jaguars do not want to be playing that sort of game although they do have talent to put points on the board. Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole have been impressive along with Donte Moncrief. There will be pressure on the wideouts to expose the Chiefs’ suspect pass defense with Bortles.

The Jaguars’ defense need to back up their claims about being elite in this match. No team has managed to stymie Mahomes yet this season. Jacksonville have the talent, possessing lockdown cornerbacks in the form of AJ Bouye and Jalen Ramsey. Coverage linebackers Myles Jack and Telvin Smith that will look to contain Kelce. The front four can get to Mahomes in the pocket, with a lot expected of Yannick Ngakoue and Calais Campbell to disrupt Kansas City’s passing game. Whether it will be enough is another matter.

Betting Options

The Chiefs have been relentless on offense. Even when it appeared the Broncos had quietened Mahomes on Monday, the 23-year-old produced the plays when it mattered the most to allow his side to snatch the victory on the road. Jacksonville has the talent on defense to limit Kansas City’s offense, but whether it will be enough to take the win from Arrowhead remains to be seen.

Expect a low-scoring contest as the Chiefs may be held under 30 points for the second game in a row. However, Reid’s men will have enough to clinch the win at odds of -145  with Bovada, while take the spread of -4.5 spread for the Chiefs at odds of 6/5  with 888Sport. The over/under line has been set at 49 points – expect around the 45 mark so take the under at odds of -110  with BetOnline.

Hill has been the target of criticism from Ramsey this week as the cornerback continues his outspoken ways. Back Hill to find the endzone at odds of 4/5  with Betway anytime during the contest. Without Leonard Fournette, there’s pressure on TJ Yeldon to enjoy success in the ground game. Back him also at odds of 4/5  to score a touchdown anytime with Betway.

Tips Summary

Kansas City Chiefs To Beat Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday 7th October 2018 13:00 ET (18:00 BST)
Odds: -145

Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 Spread
Sunday 7th October 2018 13:00 ET (18:00 BST)
Odds: 6/5

Under 49 Total Points To Be Scored
Sunday 7th October 2018 13:00 ET (18:00 BST)
Odds: -110

Tyreek Hill To Score Touchdown Anytime
Sunday 7th October 2018 13:00 ET (18:00 BST)
Odds: 4/5

TJ Yeldon To Score Touchdown Anytime
Sunday 7th October 2018 13:00 ET (18:00 BST)
Odds: 4/5

  • Blake Bortles
  • Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Kansas City Chiefs
  • NFL
  • Patrick Mahomes

    About the author

    Simon Sinclair
    Simon Sinclair

    Sports Writer

    Simon is a freelance sports writer from the UK. He passionately writes about all kinds of sports, sharing his predictions on everything from the latest cricket matches and golf tournaments to major horse racing events and popular American sports.