I know the preseason isn’t an ideal time to bet on the NFL – who doesn’t?
However, there are often edges to be found as long as you’re selective. I like to follow local beat writers on Twitter to stay up to date on how teams plan on attacking the preseason games.
We know the starters won’t be in long generally, but with injuries and position battles, we do end up seeing some teams play starters or fringe starters longer into games than others.
NFL Preseason Week 1 Recap
So, how did the opening week preseason end up going?
Well, favorites dominated. Favorites went 11-5 SU (10-6 ATS). The over/under was nearly split, as 9 games went over and 7 games went under their respective game totals.
The New York Jets (0-1) were smoked on the road by the Lions (23-3), while the Atlanta Falcons (1-0) opened up preseason with a spirited win against the Titans (31-24).
Atlanta scored 17 points in the first quarter and never looked back. Matt Ryan went 6/6 for 86 yards and 1 TD in limited action, plus the run game was able to add two rushing TD’s.
Geno Smith is injured and Ryan Fitzpatrick will likely play one or two drives. That leave Bryce Petty getting most of the snaps again, which means the Jets offense will be abysmal again.
If the Falcons can score in the double-digits they should win this game as underdogs.
The Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) upset the Cardinals (34-19) on the road last week. I was impressed with the offense and expect that to carry over against the Seattle Seahawks (0-1).
Seattle lost to the Broncos (22-20) at home in a close game. The public will likely bet the under, as this is the preseason and everyone is talking about how deep the Seahawks defense is.
However, this total is too low. Seattle’s defense is deep, but they just allowed Brock Osweiler to throw for 151 yards and 1 TD on 15/20 passing. They also allowed over 110 rushing yards.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Chiefs scored 30+ points again – take the over here.
Here’s another total that’s too low between the Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) and Baltimore Ravens (1-0). Both teams won in week 1 and they both scored 30+ points.
Bookies love setting love totals during the preseason and this one will cost them.
Chip Kelly has an offense full of players with something to prove and they won’t let up off the pedal in this game. The Ravens lack defensive depth and just allowed 27 against NO.
Matt Schaub looked good last week and he should see extended play again for the Ravens. I expect this match-up to be the highest scoring during week 2 of the NFL preseason.
We have a small home underdog in the Carolina Panthers (1-0) and I’m not passing that up, especially when they’re playing against the Miami Dolphins (0-1).
Miami’s starters were good against the Bears, but the rest of the game was brutal and they lost (27-10). Carolina went on the road to Buffalo last week and left with a win (25-24).
I expect a similar result for Miami. They’ll look good early, but falter once the starters are out of the game. The Panthers are deep at QB and they’ll have success on this Dolphins defense.
I love small home underdogs and the Panthers are the best of the bunch this week.
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