Best Actress in a Supporting Role has the hottest favourite in the top six Academy Awards races but, in one’s final look at the major Oscars categories before Christmas, one has a note of caution for punters considering bets on Rooney Mara.
According to the 24-person panel of Academy Awards experts on GoldDerby, an American website that is the number one place for Oscars analysis, Mara is the Best Actress in a Supporting Role favourite but not as strong as Spotlight (Best Picture), Leonardo DiCaprio (Best Actor in a Leading Role) or Brie Larson (Best Actress in a Leading Role). In summary, 18 of GoldDerby’s 24 Academy Awards aficionados favour Mara, with five predicting Alicia Vikander and one leaning towards two-time Oscars winner Jane Fonda.
Betfair is offering odds of -303 about Mara, who has one Academy Awards nomination under her belt, winning Best Actress in a Supporting Role for her performance in Carol. One is not interested in Mara, who made the Best Actress in a Leading Role short list four years ago for her work in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, at odds of -303 because of what Academy Awards followers call category confusion. Most people who have seen Carol think that Mara is the movie’s joint lead actress along with Cate Blanchett – the Golden Globes Awards nominated Mara for the main prize and she took out the top gong at the Cannes Film Festival.
Mara is too short to win Best Actress in a Supporting Role at the Academy Awards and two of the other Screen Actors Guild nominees, Rachel McAdams and Helen Mirren, do not strike one as Oscars contenders – McAdams is riding the Spotlight love and Trumbo is not Mirren’s finest hour. That leaves Kate Winslet and Vikander for one’s consideration.
Winslet plays Apple marketing executive Joanna Hoffman in Steve Jobs so she ticks the Academy Awards box of playing a real person. Winslet is a lock to make the Best Actress in a Supporting Role cut – Academy Awards voters have nominated her six times for one victory – but she has not taken out a single precursor for her performance in the biographical drama that Oscars winner Danny Boyle produced and directed.
Vikander represents the Best Actress in a Supporting Role value at odds of +400 with Bet365 to triumph at the Academy Awards. Vikander’s detractors will argue that she is as much of a lead actress in The Danish Girl as Mara is in Carol but most people do not seem to mind that Focus Features is campaigning the Swedish star in supporting actress categories, perhaps because Eddie Redmayne plays a transgender woman in that movie.
The Danish Girl is not only Vikander’s fine piece of work this year. Vikander received fantastics reviews for her performance in Ex Machina, picking up several critics awards. Vikander shapes as the chief Best Actress in a Supporting Role danger to Mara at the Academy Awards and, at their odds, the Swede appeals more than the American.
The Screen Actors Guild Awards will go a long way to sorting out the Best Actress in a Supporting Role race at the Academy Awards. Each of the last six Screen Actors Guild Awards champions have gone on to experience Academy Awards success and only twice in the last 12 years have the winners not matched up. Vikander is worthy of a speculative Academy Awards punt at odds of +400 because one thinks that she should be trading at around the +200 mark currently.
Alicia Vikander to win Best Actress in a Supporting Role
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