Fastest Lap Favourites to Lose in a Tight Main Race

The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is one of Formula One's hardest tracks.

The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is one of the most demanding tracks on the Formula One calendar so betting on a couple of exotic markets is one’s idea of Canadian Grand Prix fun.

The home of the Canadian Grand Prix since the late 1970s, the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve fixtures a mix of very fast straights and very slow corners. Consequently, the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is Formula One’s toughest on brakes and fuel, which has resulted in two trends developing due to most Canadian Grand Prix podium finishers having to nurse their brittle but brilliant cars to the chequered flag.

First, most recent editions of the Canadian Grand Prix have been won by narrow margins – Lewis Hamilton won by 2.254 seconds in 2010, Jenson Button won by 2.709 seconds in 2011, Hamilton won by 2.513 seconds in 2012, Sebastian Vettel won by 14.408 seconds in 2013, Daniel Ricciardo won by 4.236 seconds in 2014 and Hamilton won by 2.285 seconds in 2015. So four of the last six runnings of the Canadian Grand Prix have been won by fewer than three seconds and five of the last six have been won by fewer than five seconds.

Bet365 is offering odds of +137  that there are under five seconds between first and second in Sunday’s Canadian Grand Prix, with between five and 10 seconds trading at odds of +333 . Therefore, punters with Bet365 accounts can get odds of approximately -189  by dutching those two options. That strikes one as a very sound Canadian Grand Prix wager.

Second, each of the last six editions of the Canadian Grand Prix have featured fastest laps by drivers who did not finish in the top three – Robert Kubica was eighth in 2010, Jenson Button was seventh in 2011, Vettel was fourth in 2012, Mark Webber was fourth in 2013, Felipe Massa was 12th in 2014 and Kimi Raikkonen was fourth in 2015.

Given that the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve does play into the hands of Mercedes – for example, the Silver Arrows have filled the front row of the grid for each of the last two runnings of the Canadian Grand Prix – one is willing to oppose Hamilton and Nico Rosberg in betting on the fastest lap. Obviously, laying Hamilton and Rosberg on a betting exchange would be the easiest way to do such a thing but dutching Vettel (odds of +1000  with Totesport), Ricciardo (odds of +1000  with William Hill), Max Verstappen (odds of +1200 ) and Raikkonen (odds of +1400  with several bookmakers, including Ladbrokes and Totesport) is an avenue for non-betting exchange punters. The dutched wager on Vettel, Ricciardo, Verstappen and Raikkonen produces odds of slightly greater than +207 .

A Hamilton victory from pole position merits Canadian Grand Prix favouritism but the defending champion has been hit and miss this season and, also, there is a decent chance of rain falling over the weekend and making the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve even more treacherous than it usually is.

Therefore, one suggests steering away from the Canadian Grand Prix winner market and focusing on the aforementioned exotics, both of which will provide you with interest right up until the final lap of the race on Montreal’s streets.

Tips Summary

Dutch 5 seconds between 1st & 2nd and 5-10 seconds between 1st & 2nd
Canadian Grand Prix, Sunday 12th June
Odds:  -189

Dutch Vettel, Ricciardo, Verstappen and Raikkonen for Fastest Lap
Canadian Grand Prix, Sunday 12th June
Odds:  +207

Canadian Grand Prix
Formula One

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