X Factor Betting – The Final 6

As the final 6 contestants take the stage this weekend, being in the grand final is a distinct possibility for them all. They’ve fought to get this far, surviving sing offs, negative comments from the judges and in some cases, a lot of bad publicity from the press. Is there anyone left that doesn’t deserve their place in the final 6? Not a chance. These are the best 6 acts that entered the live stage 6 weeks ago. Of the super 6 that have made it this far, only Luke was outside the top 6 in the betting when it all kicked off, but he has an uphill battle if he’s going to survive to the finals and this weekend could be his X-Factor swansong if he gets it wrong.

As of today, the outright win market hasn’t really changed over the last week or 2, with Sam Bailey still leading the way as the 5/6 odds on favourite with BetFred from Nicholas @ 3/1 Ladbrokes. That’s not what we’re interested in this week though. It’s the battle for elimination that once again will dominate discussion as one of the acts will fall short as the final fence approaches.
The odds for elimination and the odds for bottom two are as follows:

Hannah (elim) 4/5 (Bottom 2) 4/9
Luke (elim) 3/1 (Bottom 2) 6/4
Tamera (elim) 6/1 (Bottom 2) 5/4
Rough Copy (elim) 14/1 (Bottom 2) 7/4
Nicholas (elim) 40/1 (Bottom 2) 12/1
Sam (elim) 66/1 (Bottom 2) 16/1

First of all, this weeks theme is ‘The Best of the X-Factor’ so acts are going to perform memorable performances from previous X-Factor guests. We won’t see too much originality though as it most cases it will be a cover version of a cover version. So who got what?

Hannah Barrett – Hallelujah (Alexandra Burke)

I love this song choice for Hannah. It’s the closest she can get to a ticket away from the bottom 2. She may be compared to Alexandra Burke which would be unfair, but this song should suit her husky style. She’ll need to control her voice and not shout it, but this could be a well performed, emotional and confidence boosting performance. She’s 4/9 @ BWIN to be in the bottom 2. That’s testament to the competition she’s up against. I don’t think there’s any value in that price but she’s that price for a reason. She’ll be up against it to escape bottom 2 and no matter how well she pulls this off, she’ll need some of the other contestants to falter to see her safe.

Luke Friend – What Makes You Beautiful (One Direction)

On paper, I’m liking this song choice for Luke in a week where he needs to stand up and be counted. Hopefully he’ll do a decent job, but decent might not be enough to cut it with just 6 acts left. If he ends up bottom 2, and he’ll do well to escape it if he gets there. Best case scenario if he is bottom 2, is to be up against Hannah, although if Hannah pulled off a great performance, she’ll just need 1 judge other than her mentor to send it to deadlock and then anything can happen.

The possible get out of jail card Luke has, is if One Direction are mentoring him which means that he may get a lot of their support. If he performs the version below by The 1975, he could pull off a bottom 2 escape though as it fits in well with his style and he has covered a previous The 1975’s song so he is well aware of this cover. Tough one to call this week, because his fans won’t want to see him hanging around the trapdoor for a second consecutive week.

Nicholas McDonald – The Climb (Joe McElderry)

Every performance from Nicholas has been well within his comfort range, and this is another predictable song. He (or more to the point, Louis) is playing it safe week in and week out. He needs to change gears from next week if he’s to stand out. He’ll sing this well and he’s popular enough for his fans to vote him through. He’ll always have the guts of Scotland voting for him no matter what he sings, so it’s a good base to build on. 12/1 is a massive price for bottom 2 in a 6 horse race that includes Sam Bailey tho. Tempting, as it may not appeal to everyone and could be seen as quite boring.

Rough Copy – Don’t Let Go (Little Mix)

They should pull this off. They have perfect harmonies and will be able to make this song work for them in their won quirky style. I’d expect them to be smiling all the way though and interacting with the audience which will go down well. Will pulling this off be enough to see them not in the bottom though. They need to do something very memorable especially if they get an early slot in the show.

This could also be the first week that I can possibly see Rough Copy slip into trouble. The short odds of 7/4 available with SkyBet for bottom 2 is a problem though. This is quite a short price for something that should be closer to a 5/2 shot. If they are in the bottom 2, they are 14/1 to go, though that won’t happen unless they find themselves up against Tamera or Nicholas, and even saying that, they will probably see off Tamera. This is a tricky one as it is a possibility.

Sam Bailey – Bleeding Love (Leona Lewis)

Another song for Sam to smash out of the park. It could take her 30 seconds to get going, but once she’s in full flow, she’ll be like a freight train and will just own this song. Shouldn’t be any surprises here once she controls the more tender moments in the song. She’s been outstanding all series long, and this will be no difference. She should be the first name on the team sheet for next week.

Tamera Foster – Impossible (James Arthur)

James Arthur has been in the press this week for all the wrong reasons. Sales have plummeted for his album and he’s coming across as a horrible person thanks to his much publicised spat with former X-Factor contestant Lucy Spraggan. Is it a good idea to give Tamera one of his songs to sing this week? For the general public it should make no difference, but for some X-Factor fanatics, they can ignore the song performance and instead get held up on a song choice.

This could backfire for Tamera. There’s also a lot of words in this song, and I mean a lot. She has a history of forgetting her lyrics, and this could be a repeat performance. I hope she does it well, because it’s a great song. If she doesn’t do it justice, then the 5/4 price available her being in the bottom 2 could be worth a punt. Rather than bet now, I’d rather wait till I hear her perform and then decide, because that really will be the deciding factor, and the odds won’t change much between now and then.

The Verdict?

This is a tough week to call, really tough. 6 good acts all singing songs capable of being show stoppers if they get it right. If everyone was to sing to the best of their abilities and completely blow us away, then which would be the least memorable? Nicholas would be the one I think, but he should get enough votes to see him through. Might be worth a small bet @ 12/1 with StanJames for bottom 2. That’s just too big a price to turn down when he’s 6/1 and 7/1 with the majority of other firms. There’s been no real shocks on X-factor this year, so this could be the first one.

Let’s for a moment presume Hannah doesn’t hit every note in her performance, then the 4/5 for her to go this week available with BWIN is a good price. She’s the most likely to go. Her bottom 2 compatriot could be any of Tamera, Luke or Rough Copy but it’s only 9/4, 4/1 and 4/1 for those combos. Too much sitting on the fence here if you ask me; but I don’t see a lot of value in elimination bets and don’t like to take the easy option by following the favourites.

So for my bets this week, I’m going to go for Tamera bottom 2 @ 5/4 with Coral bookmakers, simply because I can’t see her remembering all the words and nailing the performance. If you fancy a spicier option, then perhaps a small bet for her to be joined by Rough Copy in the bottom 2, a 7/1 shot available with SkyBet. If we like that bet or we think that Luke could also be a contender for bottom 2, then Hannah to avoid the bottom 2 is 7/4 with SkyBet. It will all really boil down to the performances on Saturday night.