Six of the Best According to Masters Trends

2016-04-04

The Masters Tournament lends itself to trends analysis more any of the other golf majors and, having gone through the recent history books, one is suggesting that six players represent interesting betting propositions this year.

None of the last 10 Masters Tournament winners was the world’s top-ranked golfer, none of them was the reigning champion and none of them was European. So one is going to put a pen through Jason Day, Jordan Spieth and a host of  highly rated Masters Tournament contenders from Europe, including Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson and Justin Rose.

If there is such a thing as an identikit Masters Tournament winner then he is not the world number one, he is not the title holder, he does not possess a European passort, he is aged under 40 years, he is ranked in the world’s top 30, he has Augusta National Golf Club experience, he has finished in the top 20 of a Masters Tournament, he has shot a round in the 60s at Augusta, he made the cut in last year’s event and he has posted a top-10 placing somewhere this season.

A total of nine golfers – Rickie Fowler, Dustin Johnson, Matt Kuchar, Hideki Matsuyama, Kevin Na, Louis Oosthuizen, Charl Schwartzel, Adam Scott and Bubba Watson – fit that profile but one has stumbled across what one thinks may be the most important of all Masters Tournament statistics and it pertains to par-five performance. The last 10 Masters Tournament winners have been a combined two under par on par-three holes, nine under par on par-four holes and 90 under par on par-five holes. Clearly the ability to shoot low scores on the Augusta National Golf Club’s par-five holes is critical to one’s chance of green jacket glory.

Thankfully, only half a dozen of those nine provisionally shortlisted golfers – Fowler, Johnson, Kuchar, Matsuyama, Scott and Watson – are ranked in the PGA Tour’s top 40 for par-five scoring, with Scott (first), Fowler (second) and Watson (joint third) really standing out from the crowd.

Nominating just one golfer in any tournament is a brave betting strategy so, in light of the odds on offer, one is suggesting that a dutched wager on the six aforementioned men is the way to approach the Masters Tournament. Backing the following six:

Fowler (odds of 18/1 19.00 +1800 18.00 18.00 -0.06  with BetVictor and BoyleSports)
Johnson (odds of 20/1 21.00 +2000 20.00 20.00 -0.05  with several bookmakers, including Coral, Ladbrokes and Totesport)
Kuchar (odds of 70/1 71.00 +7000 70.00 70.00 -0.01  with Marathonbet)
Matsuyama (odds of 40/1 41.00 +4000 40.00 40.00 -0.03  with many bookmakers, including Bet365, Unibet and William Hill)
Scott (odds of 12/1 13.00 +1200 12.00 12.00 -0.08  with several bookmakers, including Betfred)
Watson (odds of 12/1 13.00 +1200 12.00 12.00 -0.08  with many bookmakers, including Coral, Ladbrokes and William Hill)

produces a six-pronged Masters Tournament bet at odds of 121/50 3.42 +242 2.42 2.42 -0.41 .

With regards to Masters Tournament exotics, BetVictor is offering what appears to be over the odds about there not being a hole in one during the event. Hole in ones have become more common as golfers have become more professional – the same goes for nine-dart finishes in darts – but one thinks that BetVictor is wrong to quote odds of 11/10 2.10 +110 1.10 1.10 -0.91  about no-one posting one during this year’s Masters Tournament. Twenty-four golfers have hit 24 aces in previous Masters Tournament events, with two of the last three, six of the last 10 and 14 of the last 20 not featuring such a feat. Therefore, if one is looking to strike a fun Masters Tournament wager then snapping up odds against no golfer recording a hole in one is as good a bet as any available.

The Masters Tournament will run from Thursday to Sunday and, remember, no golfer has gone on to win the competition after winning the Par Three Contest the day before the main event.

Tips Summary

Dutch: Scott, Watson, Johnson, Matsuyama, Fowler and Kuchar to win the Masters
Thursday 7th April to Sunday 10th April
Odds:  121/50 3.42 +242 2.42 2.42 -0.41

No Hole in One at the Masters
Thursday 7th April to Sunday 10th April
Odds:  11/10 2.10 +110 1.10 1.10 -0.91