NBA Finals Game 7 Betting – Series tied 3-3

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat -6 – Total: OvUn 189
Tip-off: Thursday, June 20th, 2013 at 9:00 EDT on ABC

Odds provided by Bovada.lv

After a thrilling Game 6 and another win for us at SBO, we’re back with our Game 7 preview and betting odds prediction. We cashed again in Game 6 with the Spurs +7.5 and are now 6-1 in our picks for the 2013 NBA Finals. It has been a marvellous run for us. We also picked the Spurs +220 to win the title in our NBA Finals Series Preview. The series has now reached its climax and a winner take all Game 7 is looming.

Game 6 Recap

Game 6 was one for the ages. Viewers did not have to be a fan of either team to be caught up in the drama. The first half was a mostly even contest with the Spurs heading into half leading 60-44 against the Heat on their home floor. San Antonio again outscored Miami in the 3rd quarter and went into the 4th quarter with a 10 point lead.

In the 4th, the game went back and forth until the Spurs had a five point lead with just 28 seconds left in regulation. LeBron James, who finished with 32 and a triple-double, hit a three pointer to bring them within two. The Heat fouled Kawhi Leonard who missed a free throw to keep the game at one possession.

After James missed a game tying three-pointer, Chris Bosh grabbed a critical board and passed the ball to Ray Allen who was lurking in the corner from behind the three point line. Allen hit a game tying three with 5.5 seconds left. The Spurs missed their subsequent attempt and the game went to overtime.

The Heat outscored the Spurs 8-5 in the overtime period and won the game 103-100. Chris Bosh was critically on the defensive end for the final five minutes after he had a poor showing offensively and against Tim Duncan defensively throughout the game. He blocked Danny Green’s three point shot at the buzzer, and despite heavy body contact, there was no foul call and Miami had escaped with a victory in front of their home fans.

The Spurs turned the ball over several times in the final few minutes and the Heat’s defense truly clamped down on them late into regulation and into overtime. The bright spot for the San Antonio was the ageless Tim Duncan, who was 13 for 21 from the field for 30 points and 17 rebounds. Duncan made it look easy in the post, toying with Chris Bosh for much of the night, but it turned out to not be enough.

Our Pick:

The Spurs looked absolutely devastated and drained after their Game 6 loss and who could blame them? They were little less than two minutes away from immortal glory and an NBA title. Now, the media and other experts are favoring Miami in Game 7, saying that they have “all the momentum.” Sure, the Spurs did suffer a rough loss, but they have done that several times in this series (and throughout the playoffs) and have come back with impressive results in their next game. This team is going to fully healed mentally from their Game 6 outing and will be focused and ready.

Like many, we were shocked to the Miami -7 number in Game 6, despite them being at home. The series has been intensely competitive from the beginning, and despite the Heat’s bounce back performances in these playoffs, we thought the Spurs had a darned good chance to win Game 6 or keep it close. They did exactly that.

The public is in love with Miami in this game and some sharps might be too. This is one of the main factors for the high number. Still, in many people’s minds, a Miami Championship is inevitable.
As we look at Game 6, we see the Spurs playing a somewhat sloppy game and Tony Parker and Ginobili both having poor games. Yet, the Spurs led for most of the game and had a double digit lead for much of the second half, before losing it in the finals seconds of regulation. The Heat were dead and buried but pulled out a miracle win.

San Antonio ran around like crazy in Game 6, and though they are the older team, they had a much easier path to the Finals than the Heat. Remember, the Spurs swept the Lakers in the First Round of the playoffs, had a six-game series against Golden State and then swept Memphis in the West Finals to reach the Championship. This team has had a relatively easy path to the finals from a games played standpoint and the only lingering health issue is Parker’s hamstring, which seemed to be fine in Game 6.

As we mentioned in our Game 6 write-up, there is nothing these two teams have not seen from each other and ultimately the game will come to down to execution. Miami executed down the stretch in Game 6 and the Spurs did not.

The Spurs had their worst shooting night all series from three-point land, shooting just under 28 percent from downtown. The reliable Danny Green was 1 for 7 from the field. Other than Tim Duncan, San Antonio did not play their best basketball last time, but were still literally seconds away from winning the title.

In a series this close and with the Spurs playing the better and smarter brand of basketball, it is impossible for us to back the Heat in this one based on the number. We still expect San Antonio to win the title, and if they don’t, hopefully they will at least cover for our sake!

We like the San Antonio Spurs +6 at Bovada.lv