Jordan Spieth is the hottest property in golf right now and bookmakers are falling over themselves to price up exotic markets but most of them represent poor punting value.
Before one gets stuck into some of more sensible markets, it is worth singling out Ladbrokes for what must rank as one of the most ridiculous betting options ever. Ladbrokes has odds of +125 that Spieth wins more major championships than Rory McIlroy by the end of 2035. Yes, that is right. One can bet at odds of +125 and, if one is lucky, one will get paid out in 20 years from now. One would get the same return if one put one’s money into a bank account and earned an annual interest rate of 3.3 per cent. Ladbrokes must think that there are punters out there with peanuts for brains.
Obviously, the possibility of a Spieth Grand Slam is the talk of golf world. Spieth is the sixth golfer to win the Masters Tournament and the US Open in the same year, with Craig Wood (1941), Ben Hogan (1951 and 1953), Arnold Palmer (1960), Jack Nicklaus (1972) and Tiger Woods (2002) having achieved the feat in past seasons. Wood did not have the opportunity to play in the Open Championship off the back of two major titles because World War II was taking place in 1941. Hogan did not play in the 1951 Open Championship and the 1953 Open Championship, which he won, clashed with that year’s PGA Championship, thereby denying him the chance to win all four events in the same year. Palmer placed second in the 1960 Open Championship, as did Nicklaus in the 1972 edition, while Woods was tied for 28th in the 2002 event.
Winning four major tournaments in a row is possible – Woods achieved what is known as the Tiger Slam across 2000 and 2001 – but bookmakers are not being overly generous with their odds of +3300 about Spieth winning all of them in 2015. Thanks, Ladbrokes, but no thanks. Spieth ought to be trading at double those odds to make history this year.
Perhaps the biggest Spieth trap, though, are his odds about winning the PGA Tour money list, with Bet365 quoting him as short as -625 and Coral’s offer of -278 being the best.
After the US Open, Spieth tops the PGA Tour money list with $7,863,838 – more than $3.5m ahead of Dustin Johnson and an additional couple of hundred thousand dollars in front of McIlroy. But you will be shocked to find out how often the winners of two major tournaments in a year fail to top the PGA Tour money list. Twenty-four times in the PGA Tour money list era that began in 1934 has a golfer taken out two major events in the same year and just 12 of them have ended the campaign as the biggest earners. For the record, the dozen two-time major champions who failed were Wood (1941), Hogan (1951), Jack Burke (1956), Nicklaus (1963, 1966 and 1980), Lee Trevino (1971), Gary Player (1974), Tom Watson (1982), Nick Faldo (1990), Mark O’Meara (1998) and, most recently, Padraig Harrington (2008). There is so much money on the PGA Tour these days that anyone who backs Spieth at such short odds deserves to lose. One thinks that Coral has done its homework and that it wants to lay Spieth at odds of -303
No-one likes a killjoy but, seriously, the only way to bet on Spieth from an exotic perspective is to jump on a betting exchange and lay him to win the PGA Tour money list. If you can lay Spieth at, say, -250 , then effectively you are getting +250 about someone else winning the competition.
Lay Spieth for PGA Money List
Where to Bet: Betfair
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