DJ on Track to Beat Spieth in PGA Championship

Dustin Johnson is in excellent form ahead of the PGA Championship.

Neither Dustin Johnson nor Jordan Spieth has held aloft the Wanamaker Trophy but, if one of them is going to take out the PGA Championship at Baltusrol, one thinks that it is much more likely to be the former than the latter.

Johnson is golf’s form man right now and that is a worthy achievement in what is a competitive heat given the recent results of Sergio Garcia, Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson. Johnson, who broke through to claim his first major title when winning this year’s US Open, has placed first, first, second, third, fifth and ninth in his last six events and his form figures in the big championships is every bit as impressive. Eight of Johnson’s last nine major appearances have ended no worse than a tie for 12th, including four straight top-10 finishes. And only four times out of 30 has Johnson failed to make the weekend in a major tournament.

Several bookmakers have pitched Johnson against Spieth in a 72-hole PGA Championship match bet, with 888Sport, Unibet quoting the former at odds of -133 . Johnson to get the better of Spieth in one’s PGA Championship banker.

Spieth’s form figures are not horrible but they are not in the same league as those of Johnson. Spieth is inconsistent off the tee and Baltusrol history suggests that hitting fairways is one of the keys to success at the New Jersey course. Johnson has beaten Spieth in each of the last two major tournaments and, at not a million miles away from even money, the partner of Paulina Gretzky gets one’s vote.

Backing Open Championship competitors to make the top 20 at Royal Troon paid dividends and one’s other PGA Championship selections pertain to that market. One is keen on Sergio Garcia at odds of +125  with BetfredCoral and Totesport and Jason Dufner at odds of +400  with Coral and Paddy Power.

One is resigned to the likelihood that Garcia will not win a major title because he appears incapable of landing one of golf’s big four events but it is hard to knock his form figures. Since winning the AT&T Byron Nelson, Garcia has posted three consecutive fifth places. Garcia has ended 12 of his 54 major appearances tied for fifth or better. And Garcia is a massive fan of AW Tillinghast-designed tracks, including strong showings at Bethpage Black and Ridgewood. Garcia has made the top 20 in five of the seven major tournaments played in 2015 and 2016 and one thinks that he should be odds on universally to make it six out of eight.

Dufner has the potential to be the best backed outsider in the PGA Championship because some bookmakers are asking for trouble listing him at triple-digit odds and offering lots of each-way places. Dufner boasts superb PGA Championship statistics, including first in 2013, second in 2011 and fifth in 2010 and his recent numbers are decent as well. Dufner won the CareerBuilder Challenge in January so he has not forgotten how to get the job done and, after a couple of tough years – both on and off the course – he seems to be heading in the right direction. Dufner is a PGA Championship specialist with a major title under his belt and top-10 ability so he is overpriced to feature on the first two pages of the leaderboard on a layout that should suit him.

Tips Summary

Match Betting: Johnson to beat Speith at the PGA Championship
Thursday 28th July – Sunday 31st July
Odds:  -133

Sergio Garcia to make the top 20 at the PGA Championship
Thursday 28th July – Sunday 31st July
Odds:  -105

Jason Dufner to make the top 20 at the PGA Championship
Thursday 28th July – Sunday 31st July
Odds:  +400

Dustin Johnson
Jason Dufner
PGA Championship
Sergio Garcia

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