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James Fanshawe looks like a mad professor, but he has one of the sharpest minds in the racing game. Notoriously good at race placing, he has an impressive strike rate of 14% and has had extensive success at the top level. In this article we dissect Fanshawe’s performers from aged two and up.
James Fanshawe doesn’t have a huge number of 2 year old debutants, and they don’t score too frequently; 10/148 (6.76%) for loss of £-32. A/E 1.03. Although they don’t win too often, they are actually victorious more often than the odds imply they should be.
The Newmarket trainers’ runners tend to learn a lot from their first outing at the race course and are 12/70 (17.14%) second time up, giving a loss of £-17.42, but also producing an A/E of 1.29 in the process. When they are fancied (5/1 or shorter), the record becomes very strong; 11/27 (40.74%) for £10.58 LSP, A/E 1.59
Again, Fanshawe’s strike rate is not fantastic with his 3 year old debutants; 10/153 (6.54%) for loss of £-62.63 A/E 0.97
Unlike his juveniles, there is no improvement second time up, and although their win record is better, the returns are much poorer; 14/190 (7.37%) for loss of £-120.59 A/E 0.70;
*A/E denotes actual number of winners divided by expected number of winners. A figure over 1 represents good value, anything under 1 is poor value.
Breaking down the runners by time of the track, we can see that runners who had one run at 2 and are coming back after a 150+ day break have a reasonable record. However, those turned out within 3 weeks do especially poorly – just 1/63 (1.59%) for a loss of £-59.50 A/E 0.19
The likely reason for this is that Fanshawe is likely to try and get 3 quick runs into his horses to obtain an official rating, however his thrice run maiden to handicap switchers (did not win last time out) are 21/182 (11.54%) for loss of £-61. A/E 0.96. This is an average record.
There are a few courses in particular where Fanshawe’s runners really need respecting:
3 Year Old+ Handicappers By Course
He does especially well at Goodwood, and has an extremely strong record at Kempton, with most of his handicap performers operating at the track (slightly surprising as it is generally a lower grade all-weather course). He has struggled at Sandown, with no winners from 23 runners.
Last Time Out Winners
Many trainers exhibit trends with their last time out winners and Fanshawe is no different, although his performance bias is not in line with many handlers:
3 Year Old+ Last Time Out Winners in Handicaps
The more time off the track for his last time out victors, the better they do. They have a higher strike rate, profit and A/E. Quite often, trainers try to bring their runners back quickly to make the most of their horse’s good form, but Fanshawe is more patient and does better when giving his runners a rest.
Non-Last Time Out Winners
Non-last time out winners demonstrate a different trend:
3 Year Old+ Handicappers (did not win last time out)
Those turned out within 2 weeks do very well, operating at a good strike rate and giving positive returns. Horses off for 2-6 weeks have a poorer win percentage and underperform against market expectations. Fanshawe’s horses who have been give mini break do well again, and those that have had an extended absence off the track have a modest record.
Races typically get harder to win as the class of the contest gets higher (Class 1 is the best). Are there any trends in Fanshawe’s performance based on the grade in which his performers compete?
Runners By Race Class
Interestingly, Fanshawe has much the best record in Class 3 company – his strike rate is high, he produces a healthy profit and the A/E is strong. He has most runners in Class 5 company, and his runners don’t do fantastically in the grade. Those in Class 1 and Class 2 company also have a low win rate and a modest A/E.
Beaten favourites can be frustrating. Trainers respond differently to having market principles turned over – some try and gain compensation quickly, whilst others bide their time and look for a suitable opportunity. Fanshawe’s overall record is okay; 65/341 (19.06%) for a loss of £-48.89, giving an A/E of 0.99, but when his horses run within 2 weeks they become profitable; 10/38 (26.32%) for £11.38 LSP, producing an A/E of 1.52
Claiming races are those contests where connections allocate their horses weight based on the amount that they are willing to sell the runner for. At the end of the race, one or more buyers can signal their interest in claiming a particular horse, and therefore the yard may lose their runner. Although James Fanshawe has only had a very small number of runners in these contests in recent years, his record has been impressive; 9/27 (33.33%) for a £26.63 LSP, giving an A/E of 2.03