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David Simcock is an up and coming trainer, working out of racing headquarters, Newmarket. His 10 year strike rate sits at 452/3281 (13.78%), although in the last couple of years it has improved past that figure. Although he is best known for Group 1 winning sprinter Dream Ahead, Simcock can train horses in any grade, and he also doesn’t mind a tilt in the betting ring. In this article we scrutinize Simcock’s performance under a range of different conditions, unearthing any trends that may be of use when assessing the best time to support the Newmarket handlers’ runners.
Simcock doesn’t have a huge number of 2 year old debutants each season. He certainly is renowned for sharp, early 2 year olds either:
2 Year Old Debutants By Month
*A/E denotes actual number of winners divided by expected number of winners. A figure over 1 represents good value, anything under 1 is poor value.
From April-June his juvenile debutants are just 1/47 (2.13%) for a loss of £-24, A/E 0.29. They drastically improve in the months of July-August though; with results of 11/65 (16.92%) for £22.50 LSP, producing an A/E of 2.27. His strike rate for the rest of the year is modest, albeit in line with market expectations.
Looking at the distances over which David Simcock does best with his 2 year olds, a pattern emerges:
2 Year Olds By Distance
His sprinters have the highest strike rate, with 6f runners proving best in terms of profitability and A/E. Those over the longer distances have a lower strike rate and are more likely to make up into staying 3 year olds (with the exception of a limited number of 10f debutants who have done well)
As mentioned, Simcock is not shy to put the money down when he fancies one of his runners. Often, money with unraced 2 year olds can be the most significant, and he rarely leaves it behind.
2 Year Old Debutants By Odds
Horses starting at shorter than 3/1 have a great strike rate, healthy profit, and impressive A/E. His runners who see market support on debut should be respected.
David Simcock doesn’t have a huge number of first time out 3 year olds, and their performance is far from fantastic; 6/88 (6.82%) for loss of £-53.62 A/E 0.71. Those who have qualified for handicaps by having 3 runs in maiden company don’t really excel either, and are 5/72 for loss of £-41.25, giving an A/E of 0.69. His horses tend to progress with experience.
Once qualified for handicaps, 3 year olds generally have two options; they can either race exclusively against their own age group, or can take on their elders.
3 Year Olds in 3 Year Old Only Handicaps
His record is excellent in January and February, and then falls off until August. His 3 year old runners in all age handicaps do well towards the end of the year:
3 Year Olds in 3 Year Old+ Handicaps
In October-December, they have a fabulous record of 24/125 (19.20%) for a LSP of £61.36, giving an A/E of 1.50
Claiming jockeys are inexperienced riders who get to take a certain amount of weight off their runners back depending on how many winners they have ridden. Some trainers utilise claimers to simply give them race riding experience, while others consistently identify talented young jockeys who are very good value for their claim. Simcock is one of the latter, and is profitable when using these riders; when they claim 5lbs or more, his horses are 58/413 (14.04%) for £29.91 LSP for an A/E of 1.23
While claiming jockeys can compete in races with their professional counterparts, there are also contests which are confined to others who are relatively new to the sport. Adding further weight to the theory that Simcock has a keen eye for a good young jockey, are his results in amateur/apprentice races; 25/110 (22.73%) for £35.38 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.49
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