Trainer in Focus – David Evans

Operating since 1988, David Evans has trained over 1000 winners and whilst predominantly focusing on flat racing, he has also had success in the National Hunt sphere. Training in Wales, Evans is not afraid to let his horses run regularly, and while the bulk of his string are lower grade performers, he is certainly adept at training a good one.

How do his runners do under different conditions? We find out.

2 Year Olds

Taking a look at David Evans 2 year old debutant runners, a clear pattern emerges:

2 Year Old Debutants by Month

Month	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
March	38	5	13.16%	-£0.75	1.60
April	91	12	13.19%	£36.40	1.75
May	52	1	1.92%	-£47.67	0.48
June	34	4	11.76%	£90.00	5.35
July	28	0	0%	-£28.00	0
August	14	0	0%	-£14.00	0
September	3	0	0%	-£3.00	0
October	3	0	0%	-£3.00	0
November	3	0	0%	-£3.00	0
December	6	0	0%	-£6.00	0

*A/E denotes actual number of winners divided by expected number of winners. A figure over 1 represents good value, anything under 1 is poor value.

His runners in March/April are 17/129 (13.18%), producing a £35.65 LSP and giving an A/E of 1.70. They do poorly in May, and then have an anomalous month in June where Evans has had 4 big priced winners, giving a £90 LSP and a massive A/E of 5.35.

From July onwards, the Welsh trainer’s 2 year olds are 0/57 with just 3 places (admittedly there were only 1.41 winners expected based on odds).

Evans likes to start off the year with sharp, cheap 2 year olds who know their job.

He strikes while the iron is hot and is very profitable to follow in March/April.

Sex

When looking at the sex of Evans’ first time out 2 year olds, the results are intriguing:

Sex	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
Colt	22	3	13.64%	£40.00	1.67
Filly	155	9	5.81%	-£80.35	1.14
Gelding	94	10	10.64%	£62.33	2.07

He actually has more 2 year old female debutants than male. Although they have an average strike rate and a produce a fairly large loss to level stakes, they still win more often than they are entitled to based on odds.

Most of Evans’ fillies start at big prices, but when they start at 10/1 or shorter, they become profitable; 7/32 (21.88%) with a further 9 places for £4.65 LSP, giving a LSP of £4.65 and an A/E of 1.62.

Evans first time out males (both colts and geldings) do well and can win at big odds. Overall he is definitely a trainer to be respected with juveniles in the early season.

Claiming

The Evans yard operate quite a high turnover policy. It is therefore no surprise to see him have a high number of runners in claimers, and in particular in 2 year old claimers. His results are also very positive; 25/148 (16.89%) for £35.38 LSP giving an A/E of 1.24.

3 Year Olds

The yards that tend to have 3 year old debutants are generally those who are well financed and are able to allow their immature and backwards horse time to come to hand before sending them to the racecourse.

As David Evans works on a small budget, it comes as no surprise to see that he only has a handful of 3 year old newcomers each year, with just 44 runners and 1 winner in the last 10 years.

Courses

There is no strong geographical bias in terms of the courses where David Evans does well and where he struggles:

3 Year Old+ Runners in Handicaps

Course	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
Ayr	51	7	13.73%	£3.83	1.51
Windsor	176	17	9.66%	£25.50	1.26
Chester	172	15	8.72%	£7.00	1.20
Brighton	178	24	13.48%	£14.75	1.11
Southwell	180	23	12.78%	-£47.76	1.09
Newbury	64	2	3.13%	-£40.00	0.41
Ripon	27	1	3.70%	-£22.00	0.40
Chelmsford	43	1	2.33%	-£35.00	0.25
Doncaster	75	1	1.33%	-£62.00	0.24
York	34	0	0%	-£34.00	0

It is no surprise that he does poorly at the major courses such as Newbury, Doncaster and York, as races at these tracks are by and large very competitive.

Distances

David Evans better horses have always tended to be sprinters, and his speciality of training the speedballs is borne out by the data:

3 Year Old+ Handicappers by Trip

Distcance	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
5-6f	1,582	159	10.05	-£211.50	1.02
7f+	2,667	229	8.59	-£963.79	0.88

They have a much better record over sprint trips, winning at higher percentages and giving better returns in the process.

Class

The majority of Evans’ runners are lower grade animals. Although there are occasionally Class 7 races, the most common low grade contests are fought out in Class 6 company. Evans does well here:

3 Year Old + Handicappers by Race Class

Class	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
2	213	15	7.04%	-£52.13	1.31
0.3	272	16	5.88%	-£81.75	0.95
4	816	59	7.23%	-£262.69	0.84
5	1,492	130	8.71%	-£566.34	0.81
6	1,433	164	11.44%	-£214.39	1.06
7	23	4	17.39%	£2.00	1.30

In the grades above Class 6, Evans runners represent poor value in handicap company, but their performance picks up again right at the top level of handicap company (testament to the fact he can train talented horses).

Days Off the Track

As mentioned at the top of the article, David Evans likes to run his horses regularly. With lower grade performers, it is important to obtain as much prize money as possible to cover training costs.

As the table shows, the vast majority of his horses are turned out within 4 weeks of their previous runs:

3 Year Old+ Handicappers (Non-Winners LTO)

Days Since Last Ran	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
Between 1-4 weeks	3,081	274	8.89	-£893.48	0.92
Over 4 weeks	680	41	6.03	-£206.13	0.85

His runners off for longer than 4 weeks have a poorer strike rate and A/E.

National Hunt

Evans has a solid overall strike rate with his National Hunt runners, but does particularly well in late spring to the summer:

National Hunt Runners by Month

Month	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to S/R	A/E
January	41	6	14.63%	-£12.50	1.17
February	48	4	8.33%	-£22.00	0.79
March	65	3	4.62%	-£23.00	0.45
April	44	6	13.64%	£3.50	1.43
May	38	6	15.79%	£5.13	1.26
June	43	7	16.28%	£1.90	1.70
July	40	8	20%	£12.33	1.75
August	34	3	8.82%	£10.40	0.73
September	44	4	9.09%	-£21.50	0.91
October	54	6	11.11%	-£27.43	0.97
November	67	8	11.94%	-£24.05	1.08
December	80	6	7.50%	-£39.65	0.70

The National Hunt ‘season’ finishes in April, and this is when Evans gets into gear. His runners from April-July are 27/165 (16.36%) for a £22.86 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.53.

Post Cheltenham and Aintree summer jumping races are typically much weaker than the in-season fare, and knowing he cannot compete with the major yards over the winter, Evans wisely takes advantage of the less competitive contests when the big hitters are winding down and sending their horses out to the fields.

Review

David Evans 2 year old debutants do very well in March/April – he can ready sharp types.
From July onwards, they are 0/57 with just 3 places, and are well worth avoiding for backing purposes.
Evans male 2 year olds are particularly profitable, and his female debutants can be when they are fancied in the betting.
He does well in 2 year old claimers.
The Welshman’s 3 year old+ handicappers do well at Ayr, Windsor and Chester, but very poorly at Doncaster, Chelmsford City and York.
He does better with sprinters (5/6f) performers – they offer much better betting value.
When racing in Class 6, Evans runners are much better value than in Class 3-5.
Evans does better with horses returning to the track relatively quickly (within 4 weeks).
In April-July, Evans has a very solid strike rate under National Hunt rules, and is profitable.