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Chris Wall is one of the many trainers who calls Newmarket home. Averaging a little over 200 runners each year, Wall definitely has to be considered one of the shrewdest handlers in the industry. His strike rate is approaching 14% and his runners regularly provide value at their odds. Is there any time when Wall’s runners do better than others? How do they fare on the back of an absence? We find all the answers out.
Wall doesn’t have a large number of 2 year old runners – typically averaging around 11 a season. He has just a modest strike rate; 4/113 (3.54%) for loss of £-37, A/E 1.01, but most of his debutants start at big odds. The horses tend to learn from their debut, and are 7/74 (9.46%) second time out, for a level return and an A/E of 1.21
Backing Chris Wall’s first time out 3 year olds is not the route to riches. Their record is pretty terrible for a trainer of his ability; just 1/80 (1.25%) for loss of £-72.50 and an A/E 0.30. On their second start, they don’t do much better; 4/100 (4%) for loss of £-25. A/E 0.70
A trainer with a long term plan and a solid grasp of the handicap system, it is no surprise that Wall’s runners display significant improvement when they have had 3 starts in maiden company and qualify for a handicap mark. His record with runners that did not win their 3rd start before getting a mark is impressive; 15/86 (17.44%) with a further 17 places, for a £40 LSP, producing an A/E of 1.67
3 Year Olds in 3 Year Old Only Handicaps
The Newmarket trainer’s record in the summer months into autumn is fantastic. From June-September his 3 year olds competing against their own age group are 63/298 (21.14%) for £118.59 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.51. They really need to be backed blindly at this time of year. His runners racing over shorter than 10f did even better; 55/218 (25.23%) for £135.84 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.70
Wall’s results are not so positive when looking at his 3 year old+ handicappers:
3 Year Olds in 3 Year Old+ Handicaps
His 3 year olds in 3 year old + handicaps have a terrible record in the first half of the year. From January-June, they are 2/75 (2.67%) for a loss of £-45, giving an A/E of 0.35. Their record picks up in the second half of the year; 38/256 (14.84%) for a LSP of £6 and an A/E of 1.09
Although he has a great record most of the time, Wall tends to do best when his runners have had a mini break of 4-8 weeks:
His horses off for 150+ days do slightly worse than they should do based on odds.
Trainers are renowned for being creatures of habit, and generally doing very well at some courses and poorly at others. There are a handful of courses where Wall does exceptionally well:
Yarmouth in particular, is one of his local tracks, and his strike rate, profit and A/E are fantastic at the seaside course. The only track where Wall displays a real weakness is Ascot, where his runners are 2/76. This can be expected to an extent, as most of the races run at the track (particularly during the Royal Meeting) are very competitive.
Chris Wall is a good judge of a horse, and a solid race reader. He rarely leaves the money behind more than once, and has one of the best records in the industry with his horses who were beaten favourites last time out; 61/235 (25.96%) for £142.93 LSP, A/E 1.52. Some punters advocate laying horses who were market leaders last time out, as they can be over bet again (this strategy isn’t backed up by data); in this instance it would be the quick way to the poor house. Chris Wall’s last time out beaten favourites should be backed next time they run.
Claiming jockeys are utilised in a variety of ways by trainers. Some like to help their apprentices learn on the job, whilst others utilise these inexperienced jockey’s ability to claim off their rides. Wall falls into the latter category, and he tends to jock up talented young riders who are good value for the weight they are able to relieve their mounts of. From 213 runners with claiming jockeys (3-7lbs), he has amassed 38 winners (17.84% win rate), producing a LSP of £75.70, giving an A/E of 1.40