Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day Three Betting Tips
St Patrick’s Thursday marks day three of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival, with seven highly competitive races to bet on.
The Marsh Novices’ Chase kicks things off at 13:30. There are two more Grade 1 races in the afternoon, including the feature race, the Ryanair Chase, where the much-fancied Allaho aims to secure back-to-back titles.
Read our previews for a breakdown of each race, including an overview of the key runners and betting tips to help you pick a winner.
Day Three Races – St Patrick’s Day (Thursday 17th March)
|13:30||Marsh Novices’ Chase||Grade 1||2m4f|
|14:10||Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle||Grade 3||3m|
|14:50||Ryanair Chase||Grade 1||2m4½f|
|15:30||Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle||Grade 1||3m|
|16:10||Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase||Grade 3||2m4½f|
|16:50||Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle||Grade 2||2m1f|
|17:30||Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup||Grade 2||3m2f|
Marsh Novices’ Chase
Day three begins with the Grade 1 Marsh Novices’ Chase. L’Homme Presse has a perfect four from four chasing record, and his odds were slashed by more than 50% after a strong recent performance at Sandown. The seven-year-old’s jumping has improved with every race, and he is nicely poised to put in a strong showing.
Bob Olinger and Galopin Des Champs are very strong horses who justifiably lead the betting. Of the two, Bob Olinger has arguably beaten stronger opposition; most notably a four-length victory over Capodanno at Punchestown.
Jungle Boogie and Fury Road were both impressive in recent chase wins, but looking at Marsh Novices’ Chase trends, they must defy their age and become only the second eight-year-old to claim victory in this race.
SBO Prediction: L’Homme Presse to win (7/2 at 888sport)
Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle
The Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle result is always difficult to predict, and true to form, the betting for this year’s race is spread across a big, open field.
Sire Du Berlais galloped to victory in 2019 and 2020, and is set to make a strong challenge to complete the hat-trick. Current betting favourite, Sporting John, is the most likely to shatter this dream. The Philip Hobbs-trained horse demonstrated his prowess when he romped home in a recent eight-length victory over Sire Du Berlais at Warwick.
The Pertemps Network Final Handicap has also seen some longshots come in over the years. So, looking beyond the betting frontrunners, Folcano is full of potential, The Big Galloper is resurgent, and Dame de Compagnie could be worth a punt at longer odds.
SBO Prediction: Sporting John to win (7/1 at SportNation)
The Ryanair Chase promises to be one of the highlights of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival. Allaho is heavily fancied across the board and it’s no surprise that his Ryanair Chase odds are well below even money. The Willie Mullins-trained horse continues to look majestic, having recently romped home by 12 lengths ahead of Fakir D’oudairies at Thurles, and finishing two lengths clear of Janidil at Punchestown. This race is Allaho’s to lose; if the eight-year-old runs anywhere near his full potential, then victory is surely inevitable.
On the other hand, Allaho’s short odds may represent thin value, so it’s important to consider which of the Ryanair Chase entries could cause an upset. Eldorado Allen, Conflated, and Energumene are experienced chasers, all capable of strong showings. However, Shan Blue is the most exciting project.
The eight-year-old consistently displays electric speed – he was flying when he fell at Wetherby – and will inevitably follow Allaho from the front. Shan Blue has not been seen since his fall, but if everything clicks, he could be the horse to upset the odds and shock the horse racing world.
SBO Prediction: Shan Blue to win (17/2 at SportNation)
Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle
Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle winners usually secure a victory in their outing before the event. With so many of the frontrunners struggling in the build-up, this Grade 1 race is going to be absolutely fascinating.
Flooring Porter emerged victorious last year and is amongst the favourites in the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle betting market. However, the seven-year-old lost by two lengths to Klassical Dream at Leopardstown. Klassical Dream then finished two lengths behind outsider Royal Kahala at Gowran Park. The much-fancied Champ also looked off the pace when he lost out to Paisley Park at Cheltenham in January.
Although Paisley Park’s recent finishes are lower in the field than you would expect, his performances are improving with every outing. He also has a history of staying strong over distance – perfect for a three-mile race – and the Emma Lavelle-trained horse’s Cheltenham record is very strong.
SBO Prediction: Paisley Park to win (6/1 at 888sport)
Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase
Celebre D’Allen enters the 2022 Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase in tremendous form after two hurdle wins in December, before a victorious return to chasing at Warwick last month.
The 10-year-old leads the betting from Imperial Alcazar, whose odds were slashed after a recent impressive chase victory over the Cheltenham course where this race runs. However, the eight-year-old is set to carry 11st 9lb; whereas eight of the last ten Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase winners carried no more than 11st.
Looking away from the betting favourites, The Glancing Queen, Fusil Raffles, and Off You Go all represent value at generous odds. Grand Paradis is yet to claim victory over fences, but showed his promise at Fairyhouse in January, where Floueur pipped him at the post by half a length. This six-year-old has an Irish Grade 3 win and is finally finding some chasing form at the right time.
SBO Prediction: Grand Paradis to win (14/1 at bet365)
Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
The dominance of Willie Mullins is striking when you study Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle trends. The veteran trainer won five on the bounce from 2016-2020, and although Henry de Bromhead’s Telmesomethinggirl dethroned him last year, he’s definitely in with a shout of making it six with two of his charges, Brandy Love and Dinoblue, heading the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle betting odds.
Party Central displayed good form at the Dublin Racing Festival, but Impervious outshone her with a fine performance when the two met at Down Royal in October. Impervious’s last outing at Fairyhouse was underwhelming, marred by some uncharacteristic mistakes, but she certainly has the ability to mount a serious challenge.
Love Envoi is an interesting mare. She has a perfect four from four record over hurdles, and looks incredibly robust. With the prospect of challenging late day three ground playing to her strengths, and little-seen short-priced favourites, Love Envoi is a good value bet to take home the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle 2022.
SBO Prediction: Love Envoi to win (14/1 at bet365)
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup, also known as the ‘Kim Muir’, brings day three to a close with a gruelling 3m2f race. This Class 2 race tends to favour horses who hold up well, as amateur jockeys often set off too fast.
Gordon Elliot has a fine record in this race with two Kim Muir winners under his belt, and Frontal Assault, who leads the betting, is the trainer’s best chance of making it a third victory. The seven-year-old has Jamie Codd at the helm, benefits from festival experience, and has won over three-mile hurdles as a former pointer. However, the short price offers thin betting value.
Looking at the other Kim Muir entries, only two stand out. Mister Coffey hits the line strongly in 2m4f races, recording good times in the process, and will have the stamina to challenge the betting favourites. Mister Fogpatches finished second to Commodore at Cheltenham earlier in the season, and has put in consistently impressive performances in handicap chases. The eight-year-old fits the profile of a Kim Muir winner, and offers good betting value.
SBO Prediction: Mister Fogpatches to win (12/1 at 888sport)
Day Three Betting Tips Summary
|13:30||Marsh Novices’ Chase||L’Homme Presse||7/2||888sport|
|14:10||Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle||Sporting John||7/1||SportNation|
|14:50||Ryanair Chase||Shan Blue||17/2||SportNation|
|15:30||Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle||Paisley Park||6/1||888sport|
|16:10||Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase||Grand Paradis||14/1||Bet365|
|16:50||Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle||Love Envoi||14/1||Bet365|
|17:30||Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup||Mister Fogpatches||12/1||888sport|
Note – all odds correct at time of publishing but are subject to change. Please join one of our recommended betting sites to view the latest Cheltenham betting odds.