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Date: Saturday, October 3rd 2015
UFC 192 is on Saturday night at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.
The main event is a UFC Light Heavyweight Championship bout. The winner of this fight will end up fighting Jon Jones for the title next, which will be a huge draw.
It should be noted the co-main event has been cancelled. Johny Hendricks was going to fight Tyron Woodley, but Hendricks didn’t make the weight cut due to a mishap.
Daniel Cormier (16-1) has one career loss against Jon Jones, but he has dominated most other fighters in his path. Alexander Gustafsson (16-3) is lucky to be getting a title shot.
The Swede was just KO’ed by Anthony Johnson in the opening round and he has now lost two of his last three fights. One thing Gustafsson will have is a big size advantage.
Gustafsson is 6” taller than Cormier and will have a 7” reach edge. Despite having a long reach, he absorbs 3.38 strikes per minute (Cormier: 1.71 SApM).
Cormier lands less shots than the Swede (4.06 SLpM vs. 3.63 SLpM), but the American is a lot more accurate (48% vs. 37%). I don’t think Cormier will have a problem landing shots.
Both fighters like to work in takedowns. Cormier averages 2.04 TD’s per 15 minutes, while Gustafsson averages 1.96 TD’s per 15 minutes – nearly identical averages.
Gustafsson has the better TDD (86% vs. 77%) and that’s because of his size. He can sprawl and prevent most TDs, but Cormier is an elite wrestler with great submissions as well.
Cormier’s last two wins have actually come via submission. The Swede has been stopped twice – once by TKO/KO and once by submission. Cormier has never been stopped.
This will be a close fight, but I give Cormier the edge. However, I don’t like Cormier on the money line at these odds. My best bet in the main event is on it not going the distance.
The fight is schedule for five rounds and I can’t imagine it going the distance. Cormier was able to tap out Johnson in his last fight and I expect the same result here.
I like a lot of underdogs to win on the main card this weekend.
Ryan Bader (19-4) is a +120 underdog against Rashad Evans (19-3-1), despite the fact Evans is coming back from an injury and hasn’t fought since 2013.
Bader is in great form – winning four fights in a row. He just beat Phil Davis and prior to that he beat Ovince St. Preux. We’re getting a great price against a questionable Evans.
Jessica Eye (11-3) at +210 odds is worth a small punt as well. Julianna Pena (6-2) is 2-0 in the UFC, but still unproven, as she hasn’t really beat anyone yet.
Eye has loses to Alexis Davis and Miesha Tate dating back to last year, but she also KO’ed Leslie Smith. Eye has more experience against tough opponents and I like her to win.
Shawn Jordan (18-6) fights Ruslan Magomedov (13-1) on the main card as well. Jordan is a +180 underdog, but he has the power to end the fight against anyone.
The Russian is undefeated in the UFC, but he has only won by decision. I believe Jordan will land a knockout to end this fight. I’d get on this line in case it drops.