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When: Saturday, August 1st 2015
Where: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Ronda “Rowdy” Rousey (11-0) will attempt to defend her UFC Women’s Bantamweight title at the HSBC Arena in Brazil on Saturday night against undefeated Bethe Correia (9-0).
The Brazilian factor has to be the only reason Correia is getting a title shot.
Correia hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent in her career and now she deserves a title shot? I’m surprised about all of the love I’m seeing for her online – she has absolutely no chance.
Betting on Rousey to win on the money line isn’t going to pay the bills this month.
I also expect this fight to end in the opening round, so betting on over 1.5 rounds at plus money isn’t an option. That leaves us with method of victory and prop betting markets to analyze.
My best bet is on Rousey by TKO/KO +250 (5Dimes).
You can bet on Rousey to win by her trademark submission at -215, but those odds aren’t great and don’t forget, Rousey has beaten two of her last three opponents by knockout.
She didn’t mess around with Zingano and quickly tapped her out, but Zingano has heavier hands than other women in the division. Correia has limited power and isn’t really a knockout threat.
With that being said – Rousey could look to win by TKO/KO in Brazil rather than armbar. She can always fall back on her armbar, but I expect her to look to use her striking to win initially.
The co-main event is between Mauricio Rua (-185) and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+160) – not really a quality PPV co-main event. Nonetheless, let’s take a look at this fight.
Rua has lost 2 in a row and he’s only 3-6 in his last 9 fights dating back 2011.
Minotouro was just knocked out in 44 seconds against Anthony Johnson, but he had two wins over Evans and Ortiz prior. Minotouro still has enough in the tank to win this fight by TKO.
You can bet on Minotouro at +160 at TopBet.
He just can’t allow Rua to take him down to the mat, or else he’ll be in big trouble.
Two TUF Brazil 4 Final fights are on the PPV card, but I haven’t been watching the show. I don’t know much about the four fighters and will be laying off of those two fights this weekend.
The other Nogueira brother “Minotauro” is fighting too, against Stefan Struve. Struve is only a -160 favorite at BetOnline and that’s a line that you can’t pass up, even in Brazil.
Minotauro has 2 wins in his last 6 – those wins were back in 2011 and 2012. Struve may have been KO’ed twice in a row, but he’s a finisher and still in his prime.
Struve should have little problem notching a win in Brazil.
The first main card fight is between Soa Palelei (-190) and Antonio Silva (+170). You can bet on Palelei -190 at GTBets – he’s a great bet and the odds aren’t too bad at all.
Silva has been dreadful in recent years – he’s winless in 4 fights.
The Brazilian has been KO’ed in 3 of his last 4 fights and he has been KO’ed 6 times in his career now. He’s washed up at this point and I’m surprised the UFC has kept him on.