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UFC 189: Aldo vs. McGregor Predictions

June 16, 2015

UFC 189 will feature one of the biggest fights in the history of the UFC, as Jose Aldo (25-1) fights Conor McGregor (17-2) for the UFC Featherweight Championship in Las Vegas.

Would this be such a hyped up fight if McGregor wasn’t so outspoken? I doubt it.

However, everyone has been eating up his words, especially the media.

Latest Aldo vs. McGregor Betting Odds

Jose Aldo opened up at -140, but he’s now available at -120 over at BetOnline. Conor McGregor opened up as a +100 underdog and he’s still priced the same at BetOnline.

Aldo vs. McGregor Fight Preview & Statistics

UFC189 ALDO vs McGregor Infographic

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Aldo (5’7”) and McGregor (5’9”) are both in their prime at 28 and 27 respectively. McGregor will have a 4” reach advantage, plus he’s a southpaw, which should cause problems for the current champion.

Here’s an interesting stat – out of active fighters in the UFC — Aldo has the longest average fight time (21:00), while McGregor has the 7th shortest average fight time (5:46).

Both Aldo and McGregor have unreal power considering they’re featherweights.

McGregor has a knockdown rate of 5.1%, while Aldo has a knockdown rate of 4.1% – the average for the weight class is just 2.0%. McGregor has won four of his five UFC fights by TKO/KO.

Aldo has 9 TKO/KO wins in his time with the UFC and WEC, but six of his last nine fights have gone the distance. McGregor is more accurate too – landing 40% of his power head strikes (Aldo 29%).

McGregor also has to use his aggressive pace to frustrate Aldo early in the fight.

In the stand-up – McGregor has a striking volume ratio of 1.2 compared to Aldo at 1.0. This means Aldo matches his opponents output, while McGregor lands 20% more strikes than his opponents.

The Irishman attempts 16.7 strikes per minute compared to Aldo at 9.1 as well.

Both fighters have great defense too. Neither fighter has been knocked down in the UFC and both rank well above the average for the weight class in head strike defense (McGregor 82% vs. Aldo 83%).

McGregor has an edge in takedowns as well. He averages 3 times as many TD attempts (Aldo: 0.10 per standing minute – McGregor: 0.30 per standing minute) from the stand-up too.

McGregor lands 83% of his TD attempts and he has 100% TD Defense, while Aldo has 72% TD accuracy and 91% TD defense. Any TD’s landed in this main event could play a huge role.

If the fight gets taken to the ground – McGregor would seemingly have an edge. He has more experience fighting on the ground and when he’s on the ground, he’s almost always in a dominant position.

UFC 189: McGregor vs. Aldo Best Bets

  • McGregor by TKO/KO +170
  • McGregor wins in R2 (+675) and R3 (+875) for 1/2 unit each

I’m loading up on McGregor in the main event. McGregor has wins over Brimage, Holloway, Brandao, Poirier and Siver in the UFC, so it isn’t like he has been fighting a ton of easy opponents.

He has knocked out everyone except Holloway.

McGregor comes in aggressively and hits with power. Aldo’s power seems to be waning lately and he has been content out-pointing his opponent, which won’t work against the Irish fighter.

I can’t see this fight going the distance – both fighters want to finish early.

In fact, both fighters have predicted a first round win. I don’t believe this fight will end in the opening round – I expect there to be a bit of a feeling out process.

However, I’m betting on McGregor to win in round 2 and round 3 for a 1/2 unit. I can’t pass up the odds, especially when I believe this fight will end early with another McGregor knockout. Please read our UFC Betting guide before parting with your money!

About the author

Eric Roberts
Eric Roberts

Sports Journalist

Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.