It’s rare to see the momentum shift the way it did against Correia during the Marion Reneau fight. Correia started well, utilising all aspects of her mixed martial arts game, winning the first and second rounds. However, it all went downhill after she was stunned by Reneau early in the third before giving up a clear 10-8 round to her opponent.
I look forward to seeing if Holly Holm has any new additions to her game because she needs something to spark her attack. Lately, opponents have her all worked out. Holm chooses to move in with a 1-2 punch combination and a leg kick. What’s worse, is that it is sometimes telegraphed shockingly, too.
Germaine de Randamie has created a blueprint for Holm’s next opponents to follow to defeat her. Simply, plant your feet as she moves in and then unload with powerful punches. Holm has shown through her entire career as a mixed martial artist that she is vulnerable to heavy right hands as she moves into range with her opponent. She is a thousand times more efficient at the lengths of her range. De Randamie planted her feet, and Holm ran into stiff elbows and counter strikes for the majority of the fight at UFC 208.
Bethe Correia fought Reneau with almost this exact strategy. Correia packed powerful punches whenever Reneau moved into range and although much sloppier than the technically sound striking of de Randamie, Correia was still finding a home for powerful strikes.
However, although Correia may have certain tendencies in her favour heading into the fight against Holm, she’s not even close to the level of striking of Valentina Shevchenko and Germaine de Randamie, two fighters who posed huge trouble for Holm. Instead, Correia probably falls more in line with previous Holm opponents, Rousey and Tate, in which Holm was able to light them up on the feet all night long.
I haven’t lost confidence in Holly Holm just yet and believe she could even put Correia away before this one makes it to the scorecards.
Holly Holm opened as a massive betting favourite 2/91.22-4500.22-4.500.22, and despite my confidence, I don’t recommend betting on lines like these.
Instead, I much prefer betting on Total Rounds – Under 4.5; which covers our initial thoughts of Holm winning by KO/TKO but also includes some insurance just in case Correia manages to catch Holm sleeping.
Holly Holm vs. Bethe Correia Total Rounds – Under 4.5
Sunday 18th June, 05:00 GMT
Odds: 7/52.40+1401.401.40-0.71 – Paddy Power
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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