After a lean couple of days for us on the winners’ front, we have a couple of strong fancies to finish the month off strongly at Doncaster. The first of those runners is the Chris Wall trained Flood Defense. A 3 year old filly by Harbour Watch, Wall’s runner has the profile of an improving horse and she could well be ahead of her mark of 63.
Flood Defense started her career last autumn and put together three reasonable runs in maiden company, earning a workable mark of 66 in the process. She made her handicap debut at Chelmsford and went off relatively well backed but only finished midfield, lacking a finishing kick. Came back in May at Newmarket and bombed out in a soft ground handicap at Newmarket – but that run could be forgiven as it was her seasonal reappearance and the ground wasn’t guaranteed to suit.
The market ignored Wall’s runner on her next start at Nottingham, but on better ground, she showed her true colours, being held up before staying on strongly to finish 2nd of 14. Nottingham is a turning track which tends to suit those runners who sit close to the pace and therefore that run can be marked up further. Doncaster’s galloping course suits hold up runners and she goes into the contest with a winning chance.
Chris Wall does very well with his 3 year olds running in 3 year old+ handicaps in June-October; 49/295 (17%) for £59 LSP, with the horses winning 20% more often than they are entitled to based on odds. The horse is likely to be held off a good pace and assuming she handles the conditions, she should go very close at +450 with BetVictor.
Chester is a superb track for racegoers, and it often produced pulsating finishes, with late closers bearing down on the early pace-setters. The Cheshire track host a good card on Friday night, and the best bet looks to be White Chocolate. David Simcock’s 3 year old filly is chasing a four-timer and she has an outstanding chance to do so. That isn’t to say that there isn’t competition, with another horse in the race also chasing that elusive fourth victory in a row, but Simcock’s Mastercraftsman filly could well progress into a group performer, and she is given the nod at +100 with Coral and Ladbrokes.
After being beaten narrowly on debut at Newcastle over 8 furlongs, the horse hasn’t looked back. She dropped back to 7 furlongs at Newmarket and scored by a head, before then winning comfortably when stepped up to 10 furlongs at Salisbury on her seasonal reappearance. Followed that performance up with another victory at Goodwood last time out and the handicappers has increased her mark to 85. This filly seems to have a great attitude which is more than half the battle with female horses and Simcock doesn’t seem to have got to the bottom with her. The Newmarket trainer does very well with his last time out handicap winners running in another handicap (class 3 or lower); 61/200 (30%) for £63 LSP, with an A/E of 1.26.
Titi Makfi was disappointing last year, but she has turned over a new leaf after a winter break and has rattled off three quick victories. She is ridden by Chester specialist Franny Norton and will likely try and make it but she has to give our selection 3lbs and that could be too much.
15:00 Doncaster – Flood Defense to win
Friday 30th June
19:10 Chester – White Chocolate to win
Friday 30th June
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