A winner and a second on Friday gives us a healthy profit and some ammo to go into the weekend with. There is excellent racing on this Saturday, and we have a couple of strong fancies.
We had a winner trained by the maestro Ian Williams yesterday, and if it isn’t broke, then don’t fix it, and we go in again with a Williams runner, but this time on the flat. His horse Turanga Leela has been priced up early as the market leader and rightly so. Williams is no stranger to success at Chester, which is a really unique track – a very tight oval shape that often favours horses drawn close to the rail. Luckily our selection is drawn in stall 2.
Turanga Leela is a filly who started her career with Tom Dascombe. After several moderate runs, she bolted up by 6 lengths in a claimer at Lingfield and was subsequently bought and sent to the Ian Williams yard. She immediately repaid connections faith and won over today’s course and distance, making all last July, winning a class 4, 2 year old handicap. She showed decent form throughout the rest of the season without scoring again. The daughter of Paco Boy returned this year after 6 months off the track and made her comeback again over today’s course and distance, but she clearly needed the run, as the filly was very weak in the market, going off at odds of +2500 . That race was a class 3 contest and she is back down in class 4 company, and should be significantly fitter this time around. Even at odds of +450 with Bet365 and BetVictor, she represents value
As mentioned yesterday, Ian Williams has a great record with his runners when they wear the first time visor; 12/68 (18%) for £57 LSP, winning 33% more often than odds suggest the horse should do. From stall 2, she is likely to pop out and try and make all.
Salisbury often host wide open handicaps, and the 6.15 class 6 race over 6 furlongs is no different, with the market leader currently priced up at odds of +450 . We look a little further down the field and like the look of the Ed De Giles runner Swanton Blue at +800 with BetVictor and Bet365.
Swanton Blue returns from a 168 day absence, but that should be no issue from this stable. The horse has just scored once, but that victory came on the horse’s penultimate start at Wolverhampton. Was held up and found trouble in running (which ironically may have helped the horse if he is a little quirky) but got up to score by the narrowest of margins. Ed De Giles does particularly well with his horses when they switch from the all-weather to the turf; 23/142 (16%) for £48 LSP, with the horses winning 57% more often than they should do based on odds.
The market leader is the Malcolm Saunders trained Titus Secret. This horse made a very good comeback run on penultimate start and was then hampered and stuck wide last time out when going off favourite, so it is no surprise to see the layers put him in as favourite. However, if Swanton Blue can be held up off a strong pace, he has the potential to be better than Titus Secret.
14:30 Chester – Turanga Leela to win
Saturday 27th May
18:15 Salisbury – Swanton Blue to win
Saturday 27th May