There are good odds on shots, and there are bad ones. We believe that Michael Appleby’s runner Capelita falls into the former category and odds of 4/51.80-1250.80-1.250.80 represent value. Like many, the 4 year old filly has found a new lease of life since transferring to the shrewd and talented Michael Appleby yard, and after two facile victories, she should be able to dominate her field again.
The daughter of Cape Cross started her career with veteran trainer Clive Brittain and like many from the yard, she was aimed at lofty targets as a 2 year old. Showed some ability but then found it hard in handicap company and her mark dropped from 83 to 68. Finally won her maiden for Clive Brittain in August and changed hands after that success. Came back over a mile at Southwell in handicap company for Appleby and destroyed her field by 6 lengths, winning is very easy fashion. Carries a 6lb penalty for that victory, and there is a strong chance of further improvement.
There is another last time out winner in the form of Royal Holiday. A veteran on the all-weather and at Southwell in particular, he is very consistent, but is limited and vulnerable to an improver.
1.30 Southwell – Twin Appeal
David Barron is always a trainer to be respected, and his runner Twin Appeal put in a very solid run over course and distance when returning from a 3 month break. The fact that he is proven over the course and is open to more improvement makes him a solid favourite and odds of 7/24.50+3503.503.50-0.29 look to be more than fair.
Twin Appeal progressed at a solid pace through the handicap ranks this summer before bombing out when sent to Ireland on soft ground. He was relatively unfancied when 9.0 for a Class 2 contest at Southwell last time, but showed good speed and ability to eventually finish 3rd. That run will have blown away some of the cobwebs, and he should be spot on this time round. From stall 7, the son of Oratorio can lie up with the early speed and can get home in front, setting up a potentially lucrative winter.
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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