True Romance is a 3 year colt representing the James Given stable, and in a race where there is a red hot favourite chasing a hat trick, he represents the value in opposition to the market leader.
True Romance didn’t cut much ice in his first 3 runs last year. Those starts came within the space of 4 weeks in October and after the horse’s first effort, it was fairly clear that the other runs were to obtain a handicap mark. After the handicapper had allotted a mark of 65 to True Romance, Given gave the horse the winter off and he returned in April at Thirsk. Improved on previous races finishing 5th of 10 over 8 furlongs, showing good early pace before the lack of race fitness showed in the closing stages. Was turned out next time at Beverley, this time stepped up to 10 furlongs, and finished a close up third, putting in a career best performance. After those 2 efforts, the horse should be spot on and he is also likely to relish the further step up in trip to 12 furlongs. This is the son of Mastercraftsman’s first run on the all-weather and there is plenty to suggest that the horse will improve for the switch to artificial surfaces. He can be backed at +650 with BetVictor, and should be closer to +400 .
James Given has a great record with his all-weather runners in the summer months (June-August); 30/175 (17%) for £82 LSP, with the horses winning 52% more often than they should do based on odds. The switch of surfaces, step up in trip and third run back should see True Romance go close.
The 8.5 furlong, Class 4 handicap at Wolverhampton is a really hot affair with some unexposed and progressive horses in the line-up. The market is wide open and we like the look of the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Dowayla. This 3 year old filly is making her seasonal reappearance and will have to compete against some race fit rivals, but the daughter of Sepoy is from a stable who excel with their handicappers returning from an absence and she is definitely the value in the contest at odds of +750 with Bet365.
Dowayla started her career in perfect fashion, going off favourite and scoring at odds of +200 at Nottingham. That race was over 8.5 furlongs and everything seemed to go the plan – the horse sat close to the pace and then showed a good attitude and turn of foot when asked to go about her business. On the back of that promising effort, the horse was pitched into Listed company at Pontefract over 8 furlongs on soft ground. Weakened very quickly and was beaten a long way in that race – perhaps it was due to the ground, or maybe the horse had an issue. Either way, her odds of +750 are based on that last run; if the horse came into the contest on the back of her solitary run, the debut victory, then she would be favourite.
Saeed Bin Suroor handicappers off for 90+ days have a fantastic record; 75/299 (25%) for £91 LSP, with the horses winning 44% more often than they should so based on odds. Furthermore, when Bin Suroor’s runners are having their first start on the all-weather (when it is not their debut), they also excel; 114/314 (36%) for £85 LSP, with the horses winning 31% more often than they are entitled to.
This is no penalty kick, but Dowayla is simply overpriced. She has to be backed at +750 .
15:20 Wolverhampton – True Romance
Thursday 1st June
15:50 Wolverhampton – Dowayla
Thursday 1st June