Chelmsford has been a very fair track to bettors and horses. Wide turns and a decent home straight means that the best horse usually wins the race, and as tipsters, that is what we like. Total Star is the selection for the 8.25 race at Chelmsford over 10 furlongs, and with a strong market leader, he represents the value. Luca Cumani’s horse is making his seasonal reappearance and this unexposed runner could well go on to better things this season.
Total Star made a very strong debut at Doncaster last July, finishing second in what was a strong race.
After the eye catching debut, the horse went on to hose up by 5 lengths at Beverley. Following that performance, the horse was elevated to Group 3 class on softish ground and finished 9th of 10, disappointing. Finished the season by stepping up to 1 mile and switched to the all-weather. The change of surface, drop in class and step up in trip suited and he won easily, making all off the front. The way he was ridden in his last contest suggests that connections believe the horse has stamina in abundance. He has been stepped up in trip again to 10 furlongs which should generate more improvement.
Luca Cumani horses returning off a 3+ month absence to the track in April onwards do very well; 92/394 (23%) for £82 LSP, giving an A/E of -294 . The favourite is the Sir Michael Stoute trained Elucidation. A maiden winner last season, the horse put up just a satisfactory performance for his seasonal reappearance, but Stoute’s runners tend to improve significantly for their first start back.
At odds of +700 with Ladbrokes, Total Star could be a good each-way bet.
John Gosden is getting an increasing number of horses from the Godolphin operation, and he has another potentially useful runner in the form of Grieg Hall. This once raced son of Halling put up a very promising effort on debut at Newmarket, and even without improvement, he should probably win this contest. The reality is that Grieg Hall is likely to come on plenty from his debut effort as Gosden normally leaves a lot to work on with his runners. He is an odds on favourite at -175 with Bet365, but this should pretty much be a penalty kick.
The maiden in which Grieg Hall raced in at Newmarket was won in imperious fashion by the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Tamleek. Grieg Hall raced prominently and weakened at the business end, as he lack of experience and potentially race fitness shone through. He still registered an RPR of 83 and with the expected improvement, he should be recording something in the 90’s tonight at Chelmsford. Sire Halling produces very good staying offspring; when his 3 year olds are running over 10 furlongs in January-June and they are fancied in the market (first 3 in the betting), they are 62/193 (32%) for £50 LSP, giving an A/E of -256 .
The main market rival is Kasperenko. The David Lanigan runner was sent off a well backed favourite last time out, but got badly hampered. Stayed on to finish second but may lack the potential of our selection.
20:25 Chelmsford – Total Star (each way)
Wednesday 10th May
20:55 Chelmsford – Grieg Hall to win
Wednesday 10th May