Tom’s Rock a Solid Selection at Kempton

Tom's Rock is a value selection at Kempton on Wednesday.

Tom's Rock is a value selection at Kempton on Wednesday.

2.35 Yarmouth – Marilyn

Chris Wall is one of Yarmouth’s resident trainers. The Newmarket handler has sent a significant number of runners to the Norfolk coast in recent years and his strike rate is nothing to be sniffed at. Wall is a calculated individual and always has a plan for his runners. In a wide open 10 furlong fillies handicap, his horse Marilyn looks to have a solid chance of troubling the judges.

Marilyn started her career last summer and made her debut at Yarmouth over 6 furlongs, finishing midfield in a strong race. She built on the promise of that debut effort by scoring comfortably over 7 furlongs at the same course. There was significant market confidence behind the filly that day and she went off at prohibitive odds on. Wall gave his young horse four months off the track, and she returned at Newmarket over a mile and she finished down the field, which could be expected as she was a rank outsider in the betting and the race was hot.

Marilyn stepped up in trip next time out (her last run) and was heavily supported into favouritism over 10 furlongs at Nottingham. She showed up well for a long way before weakening late in the day. The ground had some cut in it that day which didn’t suit and she returns to fast ground this time around. She is currently available at odds of +700  with William Hill and BetVictor, and should be closer to +500 , so has to be recommended as a bet.

As mentioned, Marilyn started favourite last time out. Chris Wall beaten favourites do very well on their next runs; 95/411 (23%) for £129 LSP, with the horses scoring 38% more often than they are entitled to based on odds. Furthermore, Wall’s 3 year olds in 3 year old+ handicaps from June-October; 50/297 (17%) for £62 LSP, with an A/E of 1.22.

8.25 Kempton – Tom’s Rock

John Butler is a trainer who is marmite to some. The Irish handler is renowned for landing touches and the market typically speaks volumes about his horses in the lower grade races. Butler has become a little more conventional with his better horses and they have been holding their form well in recent times. His entry Tom’s Rock comes into the 11 furlong Class 3 handicap on the back of a very solid second, and as the highest rated horse in the race, he has a very good chance of getting back in the winning enclosure at +550  with Ladbrokes.

Tom’s Rock is unexposed, with just 10 runs under his belt. The horse is consistent and has won twice and finished in the frame on a further four occasions. Last time out the son of Rock Of Gibraltar raced over today’s course and distance, sitting at the back of the field. He scythed through in the final two furlongs and was just denied, beaten a head. The horse recorded an RPR of 88 in that contest and was maybe ridden a little more conservatively as he was going over a longer distance than in recent starts. With connections now confident about his ability to stay the trip, the 4-year-old may be committed a little sooner.

The contest last time out was a 0-85 and it is a slight drop in grade as this race is a 0-80. John Butler does particularly well when his horses are top weights in handicaps; 27/105 (26%) for £47 LSP, with the horses winning 65% more often than they should do based on odds.

Tips Summary

14:35 Yarmouth – Marilyn to win
Wednesday 12th July
Odds:  +700

20:25 Kempton – Tom’s Rock to win
Wednesday 12th July
Odds:  +550