Suspect Package to Blow Away Rivals at Nottingham

Suspect Package can deliver a pleasant surprise at Nottingham.

Suspect Package can deliver a pleasant surprise at Nottingham.

6.00 Carlisle – Market Choice

Market Choice hails from the Tracy Waggott yard. The North Yorkshire trainer is an astute operator who does a very good job with the ammunition she is given. Her horse Market Choice doesn’t look like an obvious contender based on recent form figures of 669, but there are reasons to believe that the 4 year old gelding can step forward now he returns to 6 furlongs and has the cheek pieces applied.

Market Choice is a course and distance winner. The horse scored on his second career start at Carlisle and has endured a chequered career since. Tracy Waggott acquired the son of Majestic Missile in April of this year and the horse immediately put in a solid performance over 6 furlongs at Thirsk. Went to Catterick next time out over 7 furlongs on soft ground which clearly didn’t suit. Was dropped back to 5 furlongs last time out at Pontefract and the horse ran better than the bare result suggests, finding trouble in running before staying on. It seems like Tracy Waggott has been trying to find the right conditions for this horse and she is likely to have got them on Saturday.
Tracy Waggott does very well with her horses who are turned out within 7 days of their last performance; 40/266 (15%) for £104 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.42. The horse wears the first time cheek pieces which should help him concentrate and he could outrun his odds of +900  with Bet365 and BetVictor.

8.15 Nottingham – Suspect Package

James Fanshawe is one of our favourite trainers. Why? The Newmarket maestro is an expert at placing his horses and giving them the necessary rest between races. He always has to be respected, and has the 3 year old gelding Suspect Package at his disposal. The son of Lonhro has run consistently in recent starts without scoring, and connections reach for the first time tongue tie in order to aid the horse’s breathing and eek out that extra improvement required to get back in the winners enclosure. In an 8 runner field, he can be supported at odds of +700  with BetVictor and Coral which seem more than fair.

Suspect Package ran three solid races before being allotted a mark of 73. Finished midfield on handicap debut at Kempton last December. Was subsequently gelded and given several months off the track, returning at Nottingham to finish third. Went off favourite at Windsor on his next start but appeared to get bogged down in the soft ground, again filling the third spot. Made it a hat trick of third placed finishes at Haydock last time out when stepped up to 10 furlongs. The money came for the horse again, so he has clearly been showing ability at home, but that hasn’t quite been replicated on the racecourse. That event at Haydock was won by a very impressive horse from the Tom Dascombe yard who went on to score again at the track off a 9lb higher mark, so although he was beaten by 6 lengths, Suspect Package didn’t run too badly.

James Fanshawe horses who were beaten favourites last time out and are turned out within 2 weeks do very well; 26/89 (29%) for £28 LSP, with the horses scoring 57% more often than they are entitled to based on odds. The tongue tie should bring about some more improvement and the horse looks good bet.

Tips Summary

18:00 Carlisle – Market Choice to win
Saturday 8th July
Odds:  +900

20:15 Nottingham – Suspect Package to win
Saturday 8th July
Odds:  +700