Close but no cigar on Thursday, as Spinnaka who was a drifter early but then came in for some nice market support late in the day, could only finish second to a useful looking winner. Friday affords us some more betting opportunities
You don’t get many races run over further than 2 miles on the flat, but on Friday, Newbury host a 2mile 2furlong Class 2 contest that is a really intriguing affair on paper. The market is fairly open with the overnight favourite being available at odds of +300 , but we look a little further down the list for our selection. Hughie Morrison is a top quality trainer and he has the 5 year old mare Star Rider. There are plenty of reasons to think that the daughter of Cape Cross is well handicapped on the flat and there is reasonable evidence to suggest that she should progress further this year. With underfoot conditions to suit, she looks like a decent bet at odds of +550 with Bet365.
Star Rider has been plying his trade over hurdles in recent starts and has kept himself fit over the winter. Has been given a few months off in preparation for the flat season and the daughter of Cape Cross should be ready for action. The horse was last seen on the flat last season at Newmarket when fairly bolting up in a 2mile handicap back in October. Has the stamina for longer trips as the horse has previously won a 2mile 5furlong race at Goodwood, so this intermediate distance should be just about perfect.
Being by Cape Cross, it is no surprise that the horse runs very well on fast ground. In fact Cape Cross runners on good to firm ground or quicker have an excellent record, winning 17% more often than they should based on the odds. Furthermore, Hughie Morrison’s handicappers off for 8+ weeks have a great record; 63/402 (16%) for £63 LSP, giving an A/E of -345 . When the horse has been off for 6+ weeks, she is yet to win, but has been placed on 2 of 3 occasions. This mare can go close in this Class 2 handicap and is a good price.
Bath racecourse host a useful looking fillies and mares listed contest and Shrill looks like a dark horse, who is available at a generous price. The 4 year old filly by Sharmadal has moved yards to Robert Cowell and was bought for the princely sum of 300,000 Euro. She returned from a 229 day absence and is available at odds of +1400 .
Shrill won her debut back in June of 2015, travelling strongly and coming away from her rivals late in the day, marking her down as potentially a useful filly in the process. She came back in 2016 and acquitted herself well in a number of listed contests, without really threatening the principles. Perhaps connections thought she was becoming a little un-genuine or wasn’t concentrating her mind on the job as the blinkers were applied for an all-weather race at Dundalk, but they didn’t have a positive effect. Following that run, the horse was sold out of the yard and has now joined Robert Cowell, which can only be a good thing.
Robert Cowell is a fantastic trainer, especially with sprinters, and if there is anyone who can get the full potential out of this horse, it is Cowell. He does very well with his runners off for 90+ days in January-July; 27/167 (16%) for £127 LSP, giving an A/E of -149 . This horse clearly has something to find with rivals based on her previous runs, but don’t rule out improvement for her new yards, and she is worth an each-way bet at odds of +1400 with William Hill.
14:30 Newbury – Star Rider to win
Friday 21st April
18:00 Bath – Shrill Each Way
Friday 21st April
Once or twice per month we will provide you with the latest sports tips and keep you updated about the biggest events.