Spring Offensive to Produce the Goods out of Season

27th-august

4.00 Musselburgh – Spring Offensive

Spring Offensive has been running consistently of late, and Richard Fahey’s 3 year old still looks to have plenty of improvement left in him. His rider dropped his whip when finishing third last time out at Pontefract, and he has a good chance of gaining compensation this time around.

A son of Iffraaj, Spring Offensive has had just 8 starts. He has a victory and four places from those runs, including a second placed finish on soft ground over course and distance. Strikes as a horse who could run up a sequence once he gets his head in front again, and the yard clearly think they have a well handicapped horse based upon the way he was backed last time out.

Second favourite Rodrigo De Torres is on a roll. He has recorded a hat trick of victories, and is still very well handicapped on old form. Over 7 furlongs, he would be the bet in the race, but this race is over a mile, and he hasn’t convinced as the strongest stayer over the trip.

6.15 Wolverhampton – Full Of Speed

The market has made Phyllis Maud a very strong favourite, and Simon Crisford’s filly looks to be too short. As a result, the other runners are available at big odds and Full Of Speed looks to be the value for the in-form James Fanshawe yard.

Full Of Speed is an unexposed runner who finished second last time out. He was beaten fully 11 lengths into second place over 12 furlongs at Kempton, but the winner that day was ridiculously well handicapped and has since won by 9 lengths in his next contest. He hasn’t been the most consistent of performers, but the step up in trip to 12 furlongs last time out seemed to do the trick. Has actually been dropped 2lbs for his last run, so gets to race off a mark of 60, ,

James Fanshawe does very well on the all-weather at this time of year; his runners from June-August are 45/215 (20.93%) for £17.06 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.36. If Full Of Speed reproduces last times effort, then he should at least make the frame. There is potential for further improvement at the trip and on the all-weather and odds of +700 look decent.

Phyllis Maud went off favourite for a Class 4 contest last time out and this represents a drop in class. The step up in trip should suit but 2.63 looks short in an amateur riders race.

Tips Summary (27th August)

4.00 Musselburgh – Spring Offensive – +250  Ladbrokes, WilliamHill, BetVictor

6.15 Wolverhampton – Full Of Speed – +700  PaddyPower

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