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3.40 Salisbury – Dubka
Sir Michael Stoute has been enjoying a good season, and he appears to have one of his improving fillies in the form of the 3 year old Dubka. A daughter of Dubawi, she has been improving with each start and looks to be ahead of a handicap mark of 87. It is conceivable that she will make up into a black type performer by the end of the season, and although she faces a number of inform rivals, those runners appears more exposed and lack the potential of the Stoute filly. The 2.75 that is now available, may not be there by race time.
It is fair to say that Dubka didn’t set pulses racing on her debut at Salisbury over 10 furlongs in May, but then again, there was no expectation for her to do so. She went off at odds of 15.0 and was out the back early before staying on with some purpose at the business end of the race. The way she finished implied that the experience would be of great benefit and a step up in trip would also suit. Next time out, Dubka was far more streetwise, and she won by 2 lengths at Chepstow over the 12 furlong trip. Followed that up last time when destroying a small field at Doncaster. As a consequence, her mark has gone up 8lbs from 79 to 87, but off that mark, she should really remain competitive. As this is a 0-100 Class 2 contest, she competes off a low weight, and for a growing 3 year old, that is important.
There will be some resistance from Bess Of Hardwick and Eager Beaver (the latter is also going for the hat trick), but Dubka could still be well ahead of the handicapper and is preferred.
4.10 Salisbury – Sovereign Debt
For a mid-week card at Salisbury, there is some really good racing on, and the jewel in the crown is the Totepool Sovereign Stakes (Group 3) over 8 furlongs. There is a strong market leader in the form of Massaat, but we look elsewhere, with Sovereign Debt a viable each-way alternative. David Nicholls’ talented 7 year old is at the tipping point of becoming frustrating with four second placed finishes in a row, but he is reunited with Franny Norton, and this race could be run to suit. The second highest rated horse in the field, he should be able to make the frame and may even get back in the winner’s enclosure.
Sovereign Debt has finished in the first two in 26 of 43 races – a quite incredible record. He is very consistent and has been in good form in recent starts without actually winning. Has raced over 7 furlongs in last two starts and has finished strongly, suggesting that the step back up to 8 furlongs will suit. Although tactically versatile, he seems to do best when racing close to the pace, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Norton try to dictate matters. Fast ground suits, and he looks to be a bet to nothing at odds of 6.0.
Bet – 1 point each-way Sovereign Debt at 5/1 6.00 +500 5.00 5.00 -0.20 with Bet365
15:40 Salisbury – Dubka to Win
Thursday 11th August
Odds: 7/4 2.75 +175 1.75 1.75 -0.57
16:10 Salisbury – Sovereign Debt – Each Way
Thursday 11th August
Odds: 5/1 6.00 +500 5.00 5.00 -0.20
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