8 runner handicaps are a great race to bet horses each-way from a mathematical perspective. They give the best return, as a horse only has to beat 5 rivals in order for the bettor to get paid. With that said, they can be a little risky, as if one runner pulls out, then only the top two places pay out. We are taking that risk by backing Little Kingdom in the flying 5 furlongs at Newcastle, not because we are convinced that the race won’t cut up, but because we believe that Tracy Waggott’s sprinter has a great chance of scoring.
Little Kingdom is a 3 year old filly taking on her elders. This horse is unexposed, with just 7 starts to her name, but an interesting caveat is that her solitary success came over today’s course and distance back in February. Prominent early, Little Kingdom stuck on well to get off the mark, with the artificial surface clearly suiting. She had a couple of months off the track after that victory and returned on turf at Redcar over 6 furlongs. A combination of the trip and layoff seemed to scupper the daughter of Royal Applause’s chances, as she lost her place at half-way and never recovered. With that run under her belt, she went much better when turned out at the same course and distance. Didn’t look the strongest in the finish that day and is dropped back to 5 furlongs back on the all-weather at Newcastle. With a couple of hot horses in the market, our selection can be backed at a juicy +800 with Bet365, and he will surely be shorter than those odds come race time.
Little Kingdom was turned out just two days ago, but that isn’t a concern from the Tracy Waggott yard, and the horse seems to relish racing. Waggott does very well with her runners returning to the track within 7 days; 40/263 (15%) for £107 LSP, with the horses winning 44% more often than they should do based on odds. Marseille is a worthy favourite having won a maiden at Newcastle, but she has to give our selection plenty of weight and at the prices, we like Little Kingdom.
Soaring Spirits boasts a record of 2/8 with a further place at Brighton, and Dean Ivory’s selection looks a good price at the Sussex track. The horse didn’t show much last time but he has been given 4 weeks off the track and that should have freshened up the runners.
Soaring Spirits is 5/28 when off the track for 2-4 weeks and just 1/23 when returning from all other breaks, so clearly he has been off for the ideal amount of time. Last time out Dean Ivory’s runner was interfered with when running at Brighton and that was the end of his race. Getting hampered would cause this horse in particular a hard time, as he shows his best form when running from the front, so being on the back foot early definitely didn’t help and it is likely that the son of Tamayuz sulked once he couldn’t get out in front.
Jack Duern is a useful 3lb claimer and he replaces Robert Winston on the horse. Dean Ivory’s entries who are running over 8 furlongs or less, have been off the track for less than 8 weeks, are fancied in the betting and are running between May and December do very well; 140/850 (16%) for £45 LSP, giving an A/E -370 . If Soaring Spirts can get out in the lead early, he could be hard to pass at +600 with Bet365 and William Hill.
17:40 Newcastle – Little Kingdom
Tuesday 23rd May
17:50 Brighton – Soaring Spirits
Tuesday 23rd May
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