Tuesday’s are notoriously slow and although today is no different, there are some good betting opportunities. Brighton is a marmite track for some bettors – the unusual shape, undulations and camber can make finding winners for certain factions of the betting public, but others such as us here at SBO Racing love it. Horses who have previous course form are at a distinct advantage and one of those runners is Soaring Spirits. A last time out winner and previous victor of this contest, Dean Ivory’s 7 year old gelding looks primed for a huge run.
Soaring Spirits won last time out, which may well have come as a surprise to connections, as it seems that effort was a prep run for today’s contest. The horse went off at decent odds and got up late in the day to score over 6 furlongs. He went into that contest rated 66 and has been raised to a mark of 69, which is far from insurmountable. The horse has won off higher marks in the past and he comes into this in rude health. Soaring Spirits is 5/10 in June/July and just 3/42 in all other months, so he clearly likes to have the sun on his back and hear his hooves rattle. Furthermore, Dean Ivory runners competing over less than 8 furlongs, have been off for 8 weeks or less and are fancied in the betting from the months May-December do very well; 141/850 (17%) for £56 LSP, with the horses winning 26% more often than they are entitled to based on odds.
How will the race work out? Well Soaring Spirits typically likes to sit handy or lead and he is versatile over 6 and 7 furlongs. It is no foregone conclusion, but he looks like he has been set up for this contest and the horse has won back to back races before. He can be backed at odds of +275 with Bet365. In reality, he should be closer to +175 , so we believe the horse represents strong value.
It is not too often that last time out winners start their next race at odds of +800 with the likes of Bet365, unless they are stepping up markedly in class, but this contest doesn’t look too much harder than the one Clear As A Bell won last time out and Tim Easterby’s filly appears to be the value. She is stepping up in trip and the main concern will be whether the daughter of Choisir can get home at Leicester which is a track that focuses on stamina. Either way, she has to be supported at the odds.
Clear As A Bell went into her last contest at Musselburgh 0/9 after racing over 5 and 6 furlongs. She stepped up to 7 furlongs at Musselburgh and made virtually all, showing a very good attitude when hanging on at the end of the contest. Her breeding suggests that the step up to a mile should suit, but connections obviously initially thought she was a sprinter, so it has to be a little bit of a concern.
Easterby’s fillies/mares who won last time out and are turned out within 14 days ( +1000 or shorter in the betting) do very well; 21/64 (33%) for £28 LSP, with an A/E of -139 . They tend to hold their form when hitting the winners’ enclosure.
14:45 Brighton – Soaring Spirits to win
Tuesday 27th June
19:10 Leicester – Clear as a Bell to win
Tuesday 27th June