horse race

Scurr Mist to Clear a Profit for Punters

21st-august

6.05 Salisbury – Clodianna

Roger Charlton’s filly Clodianna may not have achieved much to the naked eye on debut, but she could well improve plenty, and the 6.05 Bathwick Tyres Maiden Auction Stakes is a very winnable affair. Charlton’s 2 year olds are notorious for improving plenty from first run to second, and she has been given plenty of time to learn from that first run.

A relatively unfancied 15.0 shot on debut, Clodianna finished 7th of 15, beaten 11 lengths. She made some brief progress from the back of the field 2 furlongs out before her run flattened out and she wasn’t knocked about in the closing stages. Charlton’s 2 year olds who are fancied first time out are normally relatively prominent in the market and his second time out 2 year olds are very profitable; 81/320 (25.31%) for £39.78 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.38. The Wiltshere trainer jocks up young Edward Greatrex, a promising 5lb claimer who takes valuable weight off the horse’s back.

The race really isn’t that strong a contest. The favourite is Ground Control – a 76 rated Richard Hannon runner. The Air Chief Marshal colt has run 5 times but in better contests than the one he competes in today, but he hasn’t looked the most progressive runner. Regardless, he sets the standard on form and has to be respected.

At odds of +1000 , Clodianna represents some each-way value, and is selected in the hope she get placed and maybe even win.

9.20 Wolverhampton – Scurr Mist

Scurr Mist has hit form in a big way in his last two starts, recording a win and a place after being beaten a total of 80 lengths in his three starts before. Keith Dalgleish has clearly found the key to this horse, and there may be more to come from the 4 year old Aussie Rules gelding. Has shown that he has some quirks, hanging and carrying his head high, but Phillip Makin is an experienced jockey and should be able to make up the horse’s mind for him.

Dalgleish does particularly well with his runners who are turned out quickly – his 7 day returners are 62/325 (19.08%) for £50.39 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.22. This is a weak race for a 0-65 Class 6 contest, and stall 9 isn’t too bad over the 9.5 furlong trip at Wolverhampton.

Kodiac Lady is the second favourite and she broke her duck at the 20th attempt last time out. That was very weak and was over 7 furlongs – there has to be a doubt about how she will stay over the extra yardage.

Scurr Mist is likely to be sitting on the heels of the leaders, travelling smoothly when turning for home and he looks to be a good value favourite at +250 .

Tips Summary (21st August)

6.05 Salisbury – Clodianna E/W – +1000 Bet365

9.20 Wolverhampton – Scurr Mist – +250 Bet365, WilliamHill, PaddyPower

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