8.10 Thirsk – Scent Of Summer
Scent Of Summer may not have the best form in the race, but she could well be a different proposition as a 3 year old. William Haggas has to be respected whenever sending his runners north, and the daughter of Rock Hard Ten is his only runner on the card.
After making a very promising debut over 6f at Wolverhampton, finishing 2nd after going off a relatively short +350 , Scent Of Summer was sent off an odds on favourite over course and distance for her second start. Something clearly wasn’t right as she was well beaten and her form regressed significantly from debut. That was in October, and has not been seen since on the racecourse. That may be a concern with some trainers, but not with William Haggas. His 3 year old maidens runners returning to the track after a 150+ day break are 57/187 (30.48%) for £51.87 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.22. Furthermore Haggas’ 3 year old maiden runners in January-July, who have been off for 8+ weeks, with a maximum of 2 lifetime starts are 52/160 (32.50%) for £75.70 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.32. Compelling statistics indeed.
The favourite comes in the form of the Jo Hughes trained Lady Gemini. The Myboycharlie filly has the best form in the field after finishing respectably in a number of higher class contests than this maiden. The doubt with her is the ground. If it comes up on the fasts side, she may be in trouble as sire does much better with some cut in the ground. The market should be revealing, as the yard do like a punt.
The fact that William Haggas is keeping Scent Of Summer after a disappointing second run is enough of a clue for us to back her now she is switched to turf. The drop to 5 furlongs should be fine for her and there are only 3 runners with a realistic chance of taking this weak race.
Tips Summary (14th July)
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