A nice day yesterday, win a winner a third placed finish, giving us a healthy profit on the day. Two more tips on Thursday and both horses go into their respective races with a real chance.
Ripon host a nice Class 3 contest on Thursday, and on paper this race looks wide open, with many in form and progressive horses in the line up. At a good price, we fancy the chances of the Michael Easterby trained Roller. This horse was strongly supported in the market last time out and was narrowly denied. The son of Rail Link is lightly raced and seems to be improving with each start. He is currently available at generous odds of +800 with Bet365 and SkyBet and in our book, should be closer to +500 , so Easterby’s runner in the value selection.
Roller started his career in France for P Barry and ran twice, showing a good level of form on the first start before disappointing second time out. Was switched to the Mick Easterby yard and immediately stepped forward, scoring on debut for the stable in December. Ran to a similar level of form in his next two runs, and was then put away for a three month break in preparation for the turf season. Came back and won at Redcar, taking his form to the next level and the horse then finished a close up third at Nottingham last time out. That run came just five days after Roller’s last effort and as we have seen previously, this horse seems to go best fresh, so the six week layoff should be beneficial.
Roller is a tactically versatile horse and he has run well after being held up off the pace as well as when sitting prominently. He would be best served sitting close to the pace at Ripon and stall 8 is a reasonable berth from which the horse can find a strong early position. Mick Easterby has a fantastic record when his horses were beaten favourites last time out; 71/378 (19%) for £17 LSP, with the horses winning 27% more often than they should do based on odds.
The 6.10 5 furlong 2 year old novice race is an intriguing affair with two horses dominating the market. The horses have different profiles; Wirral Girl is an unraced 2 year old by Kodiac, whilst the other protagonist is the Mark Johnston trained Faithful Promise – a juvenile who has had four starts and scored once. Despite the credentials of the markets leaders on paper, we swerve the principles and go for the Karl Burke trained Ellthea. A once raced daughter of Kodiac, Karl Burke’s horse looks like she will improve plenty from her debut effort and she can be supported at attractive odds of +650 with SkyBet and Coral.
Ellthea wasn’t totally unfancied in the market on debut at Windsor, going off at odds of +600 . Windsor is a very sharp track that can often catch out young, inexperienced horses and that seemed to be the case with Burke’s runner as she got outpaced early before staying on a little towards the end of the contest. Carlisle is a stiffer course which places more emphasis on stamina and that combined with the horse having a run under her belt, should bode well for an improved showing.
Karl Burke second time out 2 year olds have a very strong record; 41/201 (20%) for £110 LSP, with the horses winning 48% more often than they are entitled to based on odds and that augers well for our selection.
15:30 Ripon – Roller to win
Thursday 8th June
18:10 Carlisle – Ellthea to win
Thursday 8th June
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